Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 071040
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Spot Forecast for Blue Ridge RX...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
440 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures, low humidities, and breezy west
winds can be expected today. Winds will likely start off light and
variable with mostly downslope/downvalley winds, but then
transition to a more westerly wind and increase as daytime heating
and mixing strengthen. Peak wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range
will be possible through much of the afternoon above the canopy
and in open areas. There is a small (10-15%) threat of a passing
thunderstorm this afternoon which would be capable of producing
a couple lightning strikes but more likely gusty outflow winds of
30 to 40 mph. Smoke dispersal will be very good to excellent once
the inversion breaks this morning.

Saturday will feature breezy conditions and good mixing, with a
higher chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperatures will turn a little cooler with a bump humidity
readings.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 0900, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%) until 1400, then mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1300.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........14%.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley 3-8 mph until 0900, then
                    variable 4-9 mph until 1000, then west 6-12
                    mph with gusts to around 22 mph until 1400,
                    then southwest 12-18 mph with gusts to around
                    28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1300.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 2500 ft AGL
                    until 1100, then 6300 ft AGL until 1200, then
                    10900 ft AGL until 1500, then 8800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 1100, then west 10-16 mph
                    until 1400, then around 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1200, then
                    very good until 1400, then excellent until
                    1500, then very good until 1700, then
                    excellent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  21  25  35  44  47  57  56  65  69  70  69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............38  40  44  49  54  58  61  63  64  64  64  63
RH..............27  27  26  25  22  21  19  17  15  15  15  16
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   SW  W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   3   3   6   8   10  14  16  17  15  20
20 FT wind gust.9   9   6   6   9   13  16  22  25  28  24  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.6 6.3 9.1 11  11  8.1 7.7 8.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.2   3   2   2   3   10  14  16  21  21  21  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   2   1   3   8   57  110 149 205 146 139 159
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   F   VG  VG  E   VG  VG  E

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(60-65%) until 1900, then partly
                    cloudy(35-45%).
CWR.................3 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........57%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10-16 mph with gusts to around
                    22 mph until 1900, then 6-12 mph, with downslope
                    downvalley winds after 0200.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
                    2200.
Transport winds.....West 13-18 mph until 2100, then southwest 10-15
                    mph until 0500, then west.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  50  41  32  31  31  32  32  33  34  35  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  59  57  54  52  51  50  49  48  46  43  40
RH..............18  21  22  25  27  28  29  30  33  35  39  46
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..17  14  12  10  10  9   9   10  9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.24  22  18  16  16  15  15  16  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 3.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   W
Transp wind spd.17  13  13  12  14  14  12  14  15  15  10  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..95  37  24  15  9   9   7   9   11  11  6   9
SmokeDispersion.G   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-35%) until 0800, then mostly
                    sunny until 1100, then partly cloudy(40-50%)
                    until 1200, then mostly cloudy. Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 21 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........27-30%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9-16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph
                    until 1400, then 15-21 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 5500 ft AGL after
                    1000.
Transport winds.....West 9-14 mph until 1000, then 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1400, then
                    very good.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  30  25  29  29  48  69  75  73  69  66  64
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............39  38  42  46  49  50  50  50  49  49  48  48
RH..............52  57  53  45  40  39  37  36  34  33  34  34
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  10  13  14  15  16  17  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.15  16  16  16  21  22  24  25  28  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 1.5 2.2 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  9   12  13  20  21  22  22  23  23  23  24
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   6   15  24  71  80  90  97  104 111 108 104
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   G   G   G   G   VG  VG  VG  VG

$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Timothy Egan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2111823.0/BOU
.DELDT 05/07/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL timothy.egan@usda.gov


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