Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
798
UXUS97 KBOU 151329
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0729 MDT Sunday, June 15, 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, June 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 86.1 F/30.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1584 ft/min (8.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 21177 ft MSL (15836 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 93.0 F/34.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1115 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10294 ft MSL (4953 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 06/16....... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 24521 ft MSL (19180 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 06/16.......... Poor
Remarks... A few high based showers for denver, storms to the east this
afternoon and evening
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:30:51 / 20:29:23 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 58 min 32 sec (898 min 32 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:07 MDT... 73.57 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 16118 ft MSL (10777 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17150 ft MSL (11809 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17805 ft MSL (12465 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -5.6
K index......................... +9.2
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.4 -76.7 235 25 13 1.5 0.8 M M M M M
45000 -58.7 -73.7 240 31 16 0.0 0.0 M M M M M
40000 -57.9 -72.2 245 27 14 8.7 4.8 M M M M M
38000 -53.1 -63.6 255 26 13 8.0 4.4 M M M M M
36000 -48.3 -54.9 260 25 13 8.0 4.4 M M M M M
34000 -43.6 -46.5 265 26 13 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
32000 -38.4 -37.1 270 27 14 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
30000 -34.3 -29.7 275 26 13 6.6 3.6 40.4 104.7 5.0 M M
29000 -32.3 -26.1 275 25 13 6.6 3.6 39.2 102.6 4.1 M M
28000 -30.3 -22.5 280 24 12 7.3 4.0 38.2 100.7 3.3 M M
27000 -28.1 -18.6 280 23 12 7.7 4.2 37.3 99.1 2.6 M M
26000 -25.8 -14.4 285 23 12 7.7 4.2 36.5 97.6 2.0 M M
25000 -23.5 -10.3 285 22 12 7.8 4.3 35.8 96.4 1.5 M M
24000 -21.0 -5.8 290 22 11 8.6 4.7 35.2 95.4 1.0 M M
23000 -18.4 -1.1 290 21 11 8.6 4.7 34.8 94.6 0.7 M M
22000 -15.8 3.6 295 21 11 8.6 4.7 34.5 94.0 0.4 M M
21000 -13.3 8.1 300 19 10 8.6 4.7 34.0 93.1 -0.0 1574 8.0
20000 -10.8 12.6 305 17 9 8.6 4.7 33.6 92.4 -0.4 1468 7.5
19500 -9.5 14.9 305 16 8 8.6 4.7 33.4 92.1 -0.6 1415 7.2
19000 -8.2 17.2 305 15 8 9.0 5.0 33.2 91.8 -0.7 1361 6.9
18500 -6.9 19.6 310 14 7 9.0 4.9 33.1 91.6 -0.9 1307 6.6
18000 -4.9 23.2 310 13 7 9.0 5.0 32.9 91.3 -1.1 1225 6.2
17500 -3.5 25.7 310 12 6 9.0 5.0 32.8 91.0 -1.2 1170 5.9
17000 -2.2 28.0 310 11 6 9.2 5.0 32.7 90.8 -1.3 1115 5.7
16500 -0.8 30.6 315 11 6 9.3 5.1 32.6 90.7 -1.4 1059 5.4
16000 0.6 33.1 315 10 5 9.3 5.1 32.5 90.5 -1.5 1003 5.1
15500 2.0 35.6 315 10 5 9.5 5.2 32.5 90.4 -1.6 946 4.8
15000 3.4 38.1 315 10 5 9.5 5.2 32.4 90.4 -1.6 889 4.5
14500 4.8 40.6 320 10 5 9.5 5.2 32.4 90.3 -1.7 831 4.2
14000 6.2 43.2 320 10 5 9.6 5.2 32.4 90.3 -1.7 774 3.9
13500 7.7 45.9 320 10 5 9.4 5.2 32.3 90.2 -1.8 716 3.6
13000 9.1 48.4 320 9 5 9.4 5.2 32.3 90.1 -1.8 660 3.4
12500 10.5 50.9 320 9 5 9.4 5.1 32.2 90.0 -1.9 603 3.1
12000 11.8 53.2 315 9 5 9.3 5.1 32.1 89.9 -2.0 546 2.8
11500 13.2 55.8 315 9 5 9.0 4.9 32.1 89.8 -2.1 490 2.5
11000 14.5 58.1 305 9 5 8.2 4.5 31.9 89.4 -2.3 438 2.2
10500 15.7 60.3 300 9 4 4.7 2.6 31.7 89.0 -2.5 386 2.0
10250 15.9 60.6 300 9 4 5.0 2.8 31.1 88.0 -3.1 373 1.9
10000 16.5 61.7 290 8 4 10.0 5.5 31.1 87.9 -3.2 347 1.8
9750 17.1 62.8 285 8 4 9.2 5.0 31.0 87.8 -3.3 321 1.6
9500 17.8 64.0 275 8 4 7.8 4.3 31.0 87.7 -3.4 295 1.5
9250 18.2 64.8 265 8 4 5.4 2.9 30.7 87.2 -3.7 275 1.4
9000 18.6 65.5 260 9 4 6.4 3.5 30.4 86.6 -4.1 256 1.3
8750 19.0 66.2 255 9 5 7.6 4.2 30.2 86.3 -4.4 235 1.2
8500 19.5 67.1 245 9 5 6.3 3.5 30.0 85.9 -4.7 214 1.1
8250 19.8 67.6 240 10 5 5.0 2.8 29.6 85.3 -5.1 196 1.0
8000 20.1 68.2 235 10 5 4.8 2.6 29.3 84.7 -5.5 179 0.9
7750 20.4 68.7 235 10 5 4.9 2.7 28.9 84.0 -5.9 163 0.8
7500 20.7 69.3 230 10 5 3.2 1.8 28.5 83.3 -6.4 148 0.8
7250 20.8 69.4 230 10 5 1.5 0.8 27.9 82.2 -7.1 137 0.7
7000 20.9 69.6 230 9 5 2.3 1.3 27.3 81.1 -7.7 127 0.6
6750 21.0 69.8 225 9 5 0.9 0.5 26.7 80.0 -8.4 117 0.6
6500 20.9 69.6 225 9 4 -3.6 -2.0 25.9 78.6 -9.2 113 0.6
6250 20.5 68.9 220 8 4 -6.8 -3.7 24.7 76.4 -10.4 118 0.6
6000 20.0 68.0 220 8 4 -3.1 -1.7 23.5 74.3 -11.6 124 0.6
5750 19.7 67.5 215 7 4 -9.3 -5.1 22.5 72.5 -12.6 125 0.6
5500 18.2 64.8 210 6 3 -30.8 -16.9 20.3 68.5 -14.9 164 0.8
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 06/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +318.5 LI... +0.5 | CAPE... +574.2 LI... -0.5
CINH... -225.2 K Index... +5.6 | CINH... -22.1 K Index... +7.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.7 -77.3 245 25 13 1.4 0.8 | -60.9 -77.6 250 28 15 1.5 0.8
45000 -58.9 -74.0 250 34 18 0.5 0.2 | -58.9 -74.0 260 38 19 0.8 0.4
40000 -57.6 -71.7 245 30 15 7.8 4.3 | -57.1 -70.8 255 32 17 6.8 3.7
38000 -53.2 -63.8 250 27 14 7.3 4.0 | -53.3 -63.9 255 32 16 6.4 3.5
36000 -48.8 -55.8 260 25 13 7.3 4.0 | -49.5 -57.1 260 31 16 6.4 3.5
34000 -44.3 -47.7 265 25 13 7.8 4.3 | -44.8 -48.6 265 29 15 8.2 4.5
32000 -39.0 -38.2 275 27 14 7.8 4.3 | -39.3 -38.7 270 27 14 8.3 4.5
30000 -34.7 -30.5 275 27 14 7.1 3.9 | -34.8 -30.6 275 28 14 7.3 4.0
29000 -32.6 -26.7 275 27 14 7.1 3.9 | -32.6 -26.7 275 28 14 7.3 4.0
28000 -30.4 -22.7 275 27 14 7.6 4.2 | -30.4 -22.7 280 28 15 7.9 4.4
27000 -28.1 -18.6 275 25 13 7.7 4.2 | -28.0 -18.4 280 26 14 8.1 4.4
26000 -25.8 -14.4 275 23 12 7.7 4.2 | -25.6 -14.1 280 24 13 8.1 4.4
25000 -23.5 -10.3 280 21 11 8.0 4.4 | -23.1 -9.6 280 23 12 8.2 4.5
24000 -20.9 -5.6 280 19 10 8.7 4.8 | -20.7 -5.3 280 20 10 8.3 4.6
23000 -18.3 -0.9 285 17 9 8.7 4.8 | -18.2 -0.8 275 17 9 8.3 4.6
22000 -15.7 3.7 290 15 8 8.7 4.8 | -15.7 3.7 275 14 7 8.4 4.6
21000 -13.2 8.2 295 12 6 8.7 4.8 | -13.1 8.4 270 12 6 8.6 4.7
20000 -10.6 12.9 300 10 5 8.7 4.8 | -10.6 12.9 265 10 5 8.6 4.7
19500 -9.3 15.3 305 9 5 8.7 4.8 | -9.3 15.3 260 10 5 8.6 4.7
19000 -8.0 17.6 305 8 4 8.9 4.9 | -8.0 17.6 255 9 5 9.2 5.0
18500 -6.7 19.9 310 8 4 8.9 4.9 | -6.6 20.1 255 8 4 9.1 5.0
18000 -5.3 22.5 310 7 4 8.9 4.9 | -5.3 22.5 250 8 4 9.0 5.0
17500 -4.0 24.8 310 7 4 9.0 4.9 | -4.0 24.8 250 8 4 9.0 4.9
17000 -2.0 28.4 310 7 3 9.1 5.0 | -2.6 27.3 250 7 4 9.0 4.9
16500 -0.7 30.7 310 6 3 9.2 5.1 | -0.6 30.9 245 7 4 9.2 5.1
16000 0.7 33.3 310 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 0.8 33.4 245 7 3 9.3 5.1
15500 2.1 35.8 310 6 3 9.3 5.1 | 2.2 36.0 245 6 3 9.4 5.1
15000 3.5 38.3 310 5 3 9.3 5.1 | 3.6 38.5 240 6 3 9.4 5.2
14500 4.9 40.8 310 5 3 9.4 5.1 | 4.9 40.8 235 6 3 9.3 5.1
14000 6.2 43.2 310 5 2 9.4 5.1 | 6.3 43.3 235 5 3 9.3 5.1
13500 7.6 45.7 310 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 7.7 45.9 230 5 3 9.5 5.2
13000 9.0 48.2 310 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 9.1 48.4 225 4 2 9.5 5.2
12500 10.4 50.7 310 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 10.5 50.9 220 4 2 9.4 5.1
12000 11.9 53.4 310 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 11.9 53.4 220 4 2 9.3 5.1
11500 13.3 55.9 310 4 2 9.3 5.1 | 13.3 55.9 215 3 2 9.3 5.1
11000 14.7 58.5 310 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 14.7 58.5 210 3 1 9.0 4.9
10500 16.0 60.8 310 4 2 4.1 2.2 | 16.0 60.8 200 2 1 4.6 2.5
10250 16.1 61.0 310 4 2 5.3 2.9 | 16.2 61.2 200 2 1 5.9 3.2
10000 17.0 62.6 310 4 2 12.3 6.8 | 17.0 62.6 190 2 1 12.5 6.8
9750 17.8 64.0 305 4 2 11.2 6.1 | 17.9 64.2 180 1 1 11.6 6.4
9500 18.6 65.5 305 5 2 8.7 4.8 | 18.7 65.7 165 1 1 8.4 4.6
9250 19.0 66.2 305 5 2 5.8 3.2 | 19.1 66.4 155 1 1 6.2 3.4
9000 19.6 67.3 300 5 2 8.2 4.5 | 19.7 67.5 145 1 1 9.9 5.4
8750 20.2 68.4 295 5 2 9.6 5.3 | 20.5 68.9 130 1 1 11.0 6.1
8500 20.8 69.4 290 5 3 7.3 4.0 | 21.3 70.3 120 2 1 8.8 4.8
8250 21.2 70.2 285 5 3 5.0 2.8 | 21.8 71.2 110 2 1 6.1 3.3
8000 21.6 70.9 285 5 3 6.0 3.3 | 22.2 72.0 105 2 1 9.0 5.0
7750 22.0 71.6 280 5 3 6.4 3.5 | 23.0 73.4 100 2 1 11.3 6.2
7500 22.4 72.3 280 5 3 3.5 1.9 | 23.7 74.7 095 3 1 9.0 4.9
7250 22.5 72.5 280 5 3 1.3 0.7 | 24.3 75.7 090 3 2 7.2 4.0
7000 22.6 72.7 280 5 2 2.3 1.3 | 24.8 76.6 090 3 2 9.5 5.2
6750 22.7 72.9 275 4 2 2.5 1.4 | 25.6 78.1 085 3 2 12.7 7.0
6500 22.7 72.9 270 4 2 0.9 0.5 | 26.6 79.9 085 3 2 11.2 6.2
6250 22.7 72.9 270 3 2 0.5 0.3 | 27.3 81.1 085 3 2 10.1 5.5
6000 22.7 72.9 270 2 1 -0.5 -0.3 | 28.1 82.6 080 3 2 9.3 5.1
5750 22.7 72.9 260 2 1 7.0 3.9 | 28.9 84.0 080 3 2 15.3 8.4
5500 23.8 74.8 260 1 1 23.2 12.8 | 30.5 86.9 080 3 2 29.2 16.0
06/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 06/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +275.5 LI... -0.6 | CAPE... +370.1 LI... -0.3
CINH... -16.6 K Index... +17.4 | CINH... -151.8 K Index... +20.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.2 -78.2 260 30 15 1.2 0.7 | -61.5 -78.7 275 36 19 0.9 0.5
45000 -59.4 -74.9 270 40 20 1.1 0.6 | -59.8 -75.6 280 40 21 1.7 0.9
40000 -57.1 -70.8 260 38 19 6.7 3.7 | -56.6 -69.9 275 21 11 7.5 4.1
38000 -53.3 -63.9 260 36 18 6.3 3.5 | -52.2 -62.0 270 21 11 7.3 4.0
36000 -49.5 -57.1 260 34 17 6.3 3.5 | -47.8 -54.0 270 22 11 7.3 4.0
34000 -44.6 -48.3 260 31 16 8.7 4.8 | -43.5 -46.3 265 24 12 7.3 4.0
32000 -38.8 -37.8 255 27 14 8.7 4.8 | -38.6 -37.5 265 26 13 7.1 3.9
30000 -33.9 -29.0 255 25 13 8.0 4.4 | -33.9 -29.0 265 27 14 8.0 4.4
29000 -31.6 -24.9 260 24 12 8.0 4.4 | -31.5 -24.7 265 27 14 8.0 4.4
28000 -29.2 -20.6 260 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -29.1 -20.4 265 27 14 8.0 4.4
27000 -26.9 -16.4 260 22 11 7.8 4.3 | -26.8 -16.2 265 27 14 7.9 4.4
26000 -24.5 -12.1 255 20 11 7.8 4.3 | -24.4 -11.9 265 26 14 8.0 4.4
25000 -22.2 -8.0 255 19 10 7.7 4.2 | -22.1 -7.8 270 26 14 7.9 4.3
24000 -20.0 -4.0 255 18 9 7.4 4.1 | -19.8 -3.6 275 26 13 7.6 4.2
23000 -17.8 -0.0 255 16 8 7.5 4.1 | -17.6 0.3 275 26 13 7.6 4.2
22000 -15.6 3.9 250 15 8 7.8 4.3 | -15.3 4.5 280 26 13 8.0 4.4
21000 -13.2 8.2 245 14 7 8.1 4.4 | -12.8 9.0 280 24 12 8.6 4.7
20000 -10.9 12.4 245 13 7 8.1 4.4 | -10.2 13.6 280 23 12 8.6 4.7
19500 -9.7 14.5 240 12 6 8.1 4.4 | -9.0 15.8 280 22 11 8.5 4.7
19000 -8.4 16.9 240 12 6 9.0 5.0 | -7.7 18.1 280 21 11 9.2 5.1
18500 -7.1 19.2 235 11 6 9.0 4.9 | -6.3 20.7 280 20 10 9.2 5.0
18000 -5.7 21.7 235 11 5 9.3 5.1 | -4.3 24.3 280 18 10 8.9 4.9
17500 -4.3 24.3 230 10 5 9.5 5.2 | -3.0 26.6 275 18 9 8.9 4.9
17000 -2.9 26.8 230 9 5 9.5 5.2 | -1.7 28.9 275 17 9 8.9 4.9
16500 -0.7 30.7 225 8 4 9.6 5.3 | -0.3 31.5 270 16 8 8.9 4.9
16000 0.7 33.3 220 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 1.0 33.8 265 15 8 8.9 4.9
15500 2.1 35.8 220 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 2.3 36.1 260 14 7 8.7 4.8
15000 3.6 38.5 215 7 3 9.7 5.3 | 3.6 38.5 260 13 7 8.7 4.8
14500 5.0 41.0 210 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 4.9 40.8 255 13 7 8.9 4.9
14000 6.4 43.5 210 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 6.2 43.2 250 12 6 9.0 4.9
13500 7.8 46.0 205 5 3 9.5 5.2 | 7.5 45.5 245 12 6 9.0 4.9
13000 9.3 48.7 200 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 8.8 47.8 240 11 6 9.0 4.9
12500 10.7 51.3 200 4 2 9.6 5.2 | 10.1 50.2 230 11 6 9.0 4.9
12000 12.1 53.8 195 4 2 9.6 5.3 | 11.5 52.7 225 11 6 9.0 4.9
11500 13.5 56.3 190 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 12.8 55.0 220 11 6 8.9 4.9
11000 14.9 58.8 185 3 2 9.3 5.1 | 14.1 57.4 215 11 6 8.4 4.6
10500 16.4 61.5 180 3 1 5.2 2.9 | 15.4 59.7 210 12 6 4.9 2.7
10250 16.6 61.9 185 2 1 6.7 3.7 | 15.6 60.1 220 13 7 6.0 3.3
10000 17.5 63.5 185 2 1 13.0 7.1 | 16.4 61.5 215 13 7 11.5 6.3
9750 18.4 65.1 180 2 1 12.2 6.7 | 17.1 62.8 210 13 7 10.5 5.8
9500 19.2 66.6 180 2 1 9.1 5.0 | 17.9 64.2 205 12 6 8.9 4.9
9250 19.7 67.5 180 2 1 7.3 4.0 | 18.4 65.1 205 14 7 7.0 3.9
9000 20.5 68.9 185 2 1 11.0 6.0 | 19.0 66.2 205 14 7 8.9 4.9
8750 21.3 70.3 185 2 1 11.9 6.5 | 19.7 67.5 200 14 7 9.8 5.4
8500 22.1 71.8 185 2 1 9.8 5.4 | 20.4 68.7 195 14 7 8.7 4.8
8250 22.7 72.9 190 2 1 7.0 3.8 | 21.0 69.8 200 15 8 7.2 3.9
8000 23.3 73.9 195 2 1 9.8 5.4 | 21.5 70.7 200 16 8 8.1 4.4
7750 24.2 75.6 200 2 1 12.0 6.6 | 22.2 72.0 195 15 8 9.4 5.1
7500 25.0 77.0 205 2 1 9.4 5.2 | 22.8 73.0 190 15 8 7.9 4.3
7250 25.6 78.1 210 2 1 7.4 4.1 | 23.3 73.9 195 16 8 6.5 3.5
7000 26.2 79.2 215 2 1 9.6 5.3 | 23.8 74.8 195 17 9 7.6 4.2
6750 27.0 80.6 220 2 1 12.4 6.8 | 24.4 75.9 190 17 9 9.0 5.0
6500 27.9 82.2 225 2 1 10.6 5.8 | 25.0 77.0 190 16 8 6.7 3.7
6250 28.6 83.5 225 2 1 9.1 5.0 | 25.4 77.7 185 15 8 5.0 2.8
6000 29.3 84.7 230 2 1 9.2 5.1 | 25.7 78.3 185 15 8 4.4 2.4
5750 30.1 86.2 235 2 1 13.4 7.3 | 26.0 78.8 185 15 7 5.9 3.2
5500 31.4 88.5 235 2 1 21.5 11.8 | 26.6 79.9 180 12 6 14.1 7.7
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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