Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
895
UXUS97 KBOU 051241
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0640 MDT Sunday, October 5, 2025
This forecast is for Sunday, October 5, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 63.4 F/17.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 612 ft/min (3.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 12678 ft MSL (7404 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 68.0 F/20.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1700 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8640 ft MSL (3365 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 10/06....... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 39951 ft MSL (34677 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 10/06.......... Poor
Remarks... Cold front this morning, stratus and showers/drizzle developing in
the area tonight-mainly near the foothills.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:00:15 / 18:35:13 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 34 min 58 sec (694 min 58 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:47:44 MDT... 45.09 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/05/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 11710 ft MSL (6436 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18014 ft MSL (12740 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14927 ft MSL (9653 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.1
K index......................... +0.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.5 -75.1 240 41 21 2.9 1.6 M M M M M
45000 -55.4 -67.7 235 67 35 1.9 1.1 M M M M M
40000 -52.4 -62.3 240 75 39 1.8 1.0 M M M M M
38000 -50.5 -58.9 240 72 37 3.4 1.8 M M M M M
36000 -48.5 -55.3 240 68 35 3.4 1.8 M M M M M
34000 -46.0 -50.8 235 66 34 5.6 3.1 M M M M M
32000 -42.7 -44.9 235 66 34 5.6 3.0 M M M M M
30000 -38.8 -37.8 235 65 33 8.3 4.5 37.7 99.9 13.3 M M
29000 -35.7 -32.3 235 64 33 8.2 4.5 36.9 98.4 12.9 M M
28000 -33.2 -27.8 240 63 32 8.2 4.5 36.4 97.5 12.7 M M
27000 -30.7 -23.3 240 61 31 8.2 4.5 35.9 96.6 12.4 M M
26000 -28.3 -18.9 240 58 30 8.2 4.5 35.2 95.4 12.1 M M
25000 -25.8 -14.4 240 55 28 8.3 4.5 34.7 94.4 11.8 M M
24000 -23.4 -10.1 240 52 27 6.8 3.8 34.1 93.4 11.4 M M
23000 -21.4 -6.5 240 49 25 6.8 3.7 32.9 91.3 10.6 M M
22000 -19.4 -2.9 235 46 24 6.8 3.7 31.9 89.4 9.8 M M
21000 -17.2 1.0 235 44 22 8.2 4.5 31.0 87.8 9.2 M M
20000 -14.8 5.4 240 42 21 8.0 4.4 30.3 86.6 8.7 M M
19500 -13.6 7.5 240 41 21 8.0 4.4 30.0 86.1 8.5 M M
19000 -12.4 9.7 240 40 21 8.1 4.4 29.8 85.6 8.4 M M
18500 -11.3 11.7 240 39 20 6.6 3.6 29.4 85.0 8.1 M M
18000 -10.3 13.5 240 38 19 6.3 3.4 28.8 83.9 7.6 M M
17500 -9.4 15.1 240 36 19 6.1 3.4 28.2 82.8 7.2 M M
17000 -8.5 16.7 240 35 18 5.4 3.0 27.5 81.6 6.6 M M
16500 -7.7 18.1 240 33 17 5.6 3.1 26.8 80.3 6.0 M M
16000 -7.0 19.4 245 30 16 4.2 2.3 26.0 78.8 5.3 M M
15500 -6.4 20.5 245 27 14 4.1 2.3 25.1 77.1 4.4 M M
15000 -5.8 21.6 245 24 13 4.2 2.3 24.1 75.4 3.6 M M
14500 -5.2 22.6 245 21 11 4.2 2.3 23.2 73.7 2.7 M M
14000 -4.3 24.3 240 17 9 5.3 2.9 21.9 71.4 1.5 M M
13500 -3.5 25.7 240 14 7 5.5 3.0 21.2 70.1 0.8 M M
13000 -2.7 27.1 235 11 6 6.7 3.7 20.6 69.0 0.2 M M
12500 -1.6 29.1 230 9 4 7.3 4.0 20.1 68.3 -0.2 586 3.0
12000 -0.5 31.1 225 6 3 8.2 4.5 19.8 67.6 -0.6 539 2.7
11500 0.8 33.4 245 7 4 8.7 4.8 19.6 67.3 -0.8 486 2.5
11000 2.0 35.6 260 9 5 7.4 4.1 19.4 67.0 -1.0 433 2.2
10500 3.0 37.4 265 12 6 6.0 3.3 18.9 66.0 -1.5 390 2.0
10250 3.4 38.1 270 13 7 8.2 4.5 18.7 65.6 -1.8 369 1.9
10000 4.1 39.4 270 14 7 8.7 4.8 18.6 65.5 -1.8 341 1.7
9750 4.6 40.3 270 16 8 6.8 3.7 18.4 65.1 -2.1 318 1.6
9500 5.1 41.2 275 18 9 7.2 4.0 18.2 64.8 -2.3 295 1.5
9250 5.7 42.3 275 20 10 7.5 4.1 18.0 64.4 -2.5 272 1.4
9000 6.2 43.2 275 20 10 7.1 3.9 17.9 64.1 -2.6 247 1.3
8750 6.7 44.1 275 18 9 6.1 3.4 17.6 63.7 -2.9 226 1.1
8500 7.2 45.0 280 16 8 6.1 3.3 17.3 63.2 -3.2 205 1.0
8250 7.6 45.7 280 15 7 6.7 3.7 17.0 62.7 -3.5 184 0.9
8000 8.2 46.8 280 13 7 7.4 4.1 16.8 62.3 -3.7 160 0.8
7750 8.7 47.7 285 11 6 6.9 3.8 16.7 62.0 -3.9 136 0.7
7500 9.2 48.6 285 10 5 6.3 3.5 16.4 61.5 -4.1 114 0.6
7250 9.7 49.5 290 8 4 7.5 4.1 16.2 61.1 -4.4 92 0.5
7000 10.3 50.5 290 7 3 8.3 4.6 16.1 60.9 -4.5 66 0.3
6750 10.9 51.6 295 5 3 8.1 4.5 15.9 60.7 -4.6 41 0.2
6500 11.5 52.7 300 4 2 6.3 3.5 15.8 60.4 -4.8 16 0.1
6250 11.8 53.2 295 4 2 1.1 0.6 15.3 59.6 -5.3 1 0.0
6000 11.8 53.2 275 3 2 0.8 0.5 14.6 58.3 -6.0 M M
5750 11.7 53.1 255 3 2 -5.4 -3.0 13.8 56.9 -6.8 M M
5500 10.5 50.9 220 6 3 -24.6 -13.5 12.0 53.6 -8.7 16 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/05/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/05/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.7
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +9.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +13.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.6 -75.3 230 39 20 2.6 1.4 | -59.8 -75.6 225 45 23 2.5 1.4
45000 -55.6 -68.1 235 71 36 2.5 1.4 | -55.8 -68.4 235 73 38 2.8 1.6
40000 -51.8 -61.2 235 75 39 2.5 1.4 | -51.5 -60.7 235 79 41 2.8 1.6
38000 -49.9 -57.8 235 75 38 3.3 1.8 | -49.9 -57.8 235 80 41 2.6 1.4
36000 -47.9 -54.2 235 73 38 3.3 1.8 | -48.4 -55.1 235 81 41 2.6 1.4
34000 -45.4 -49.7 235 72 37 5.8 3.2 | -46.0 -50.8 235 80 41 6.3 3.5
32000 -41.9 -43.4 235 72 37 5.8 3.2 | -42.2 -44.0 235 76 39 6.3 3.5
30000 -37.7 -35.9 235 70 36 6.8 3.7 | -37.7 -35.9 235 72 37 7.0 3.9
29000 -35.7 -32.3 235 68 35 6.8 3.7 | -35.6 -32.1 235 69 36 7.0 3.9
28000 -33.6 -28.5 235 66 34 6.8 3.7 | -33.5 -28.3 235 67 34 7.0 3.9
27000 -31.5 -24.7 235 64 33 8.4 4.6 | -31.4 -24.5 235 64 33 7.5 4.1
26000 -29.0 -20.2 235 61 32 8.3 4.6 | -29.2 -20.6 235 62 32 7.5 4.1
25000 -26.5 -15.7 235 59 30 8.3 4.6 | -26.9 -16.4 235 60 31 7.5 4.1
24000 -24.1 -11.4 235 56 29 7.3 4.0 | -24.7 -12.5 235 58 30 7.7 4.2
23000 -21.9 -7.4 235 53 27 7.2 4.0 | -22.4 -8.3 235 56 29 7.7 4.2
22000 -19.7 -3.5 235 50 26 7.2 4.0 | -20.1 -4.2 235 53 27 7.7 4.2
21000 -17.6 0.3 235 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -17.9 -0.2 235 50 26 5.5 3.0
20000 -15.7 3.7 235 42 22 6.5 3.6 | -16.3 2.7 235 46 24 5.8 3.2
19500 -14.7 5.5 235 40 21 6.5 3.6 | -15.4 4.3 235 43 22 5.8 3.2
19000 -13.8 7.2 235 38 19 6.5 3.6 | -14.6 5.7 240 41 21 5.8 3.2
18500 -12.8 9.0 235 35 18 5.8 3.2 | -13.7 7.3 240 39 20 5.5 3.0
18000 -12.0 10.4 240 32 17 5.6 3.1 | -12.9 8.8 240 35 18 5.4 3.0
17500 -11.1 12.0 240 29 15 5.3 2.9 | -12.1 10.2 245 32 16 5.2 2.9
17000 -10.5 13.1 240 26 14 3.6 2.0 | -11.4 11.5 245 29 15 4.5 2.4
16500 -10.0 14.0 240 23 12 3.7 2.0 | -10.8 12.6 245 25 13 4.5 2.4
16000 -9.4 15.1 245 20 11 4.3 2.4 | -10.1 13.8 245 22 11 4.8 2.7
15500 -8.5 16.7 245 16 8 4.4 2.4 | -9.1 15.6 250 18 9 4.9 2.7
15000 -7.8 18.0 245 13 7 5.1 2.8 | -8.2 17.2 250 15 8 6.7 3.7
14500 -7.1 19.2 245 11 6 4.9 2.7 | -7.2 19.0 255 13 7 6.4 3.5
14000 -6.2 20.8 245 9 4 7.4 4.1 | -6.2 20.8 255 12 6 8.0 4.4
13500 -5.1 22.8 240 7 4 7.6 4.2 | -5.0 23.0 260 12 6 8.0 4.4
13000 -4.0 24.8 235 6 3 8.5 4.7 | -3.9 25.0 265 12 6 8.2 4.5
12500 -2.7 27.1 245 7 4 8.8 4.8 | -2.7 27.1 275 14 7 8.4 4.6
12000 -1.4 29.5 250 8 4 8.1 4.4 | -1.5 29.3 280 15 8 6.3 3.5
11500 -0.3 31.5 265 11 6 7.7 4.2 | -0.7 30.7 280 16 8 5.7 3.1
11000 0.8 33.4 275 14 7 6.4 3.5 | 0.1 32.2 280 16 8 6.7 3.7
10500 1.7 35.1 275 15 8 5.1 2.8 | 1.2 34.2 275 14 7 7.7 4.2
10250 2.1 35.8 275 16 8 8.1 4.4 | 1.7 35.1 275 13 6 4.1 2.3
10000 2.8 37.0 280 17 9 8.2 4.5 | 1.9 35.4 275 12 6 5.4 3.0
9750 3.2 37.8 280 17 9 5.3 2.9 | 2.6 36.7 275 11 6 9.9 5.4
9500 3.6 38.5 280 16 8 5.9 3.2 | 3.2 37.8 275 10 5 8.9 4.9
9250 4.0 39.2 280 16 8 6.4 3.5 | 3.9 39.0 275 9 5 8.4 4.6
9000 4.6 40.3 285 15 8 7.3 4.0 | 4.5 40.1 280 8 4 7.6 4.2
8750 5.1 41.2 285 14 7 7.1 3.9 | 5.1 41.2 285 8 4 8.0 4.4
8500 5.6 42.1 285 13 6 6.8 3.7 | 5.7 42.3 285 7 4 7.9 4.4
8250 6.1 43.0 290 11 6 7.3 4.0 | 6.3 43.3 290 6 3 8.0 4.4
8000 6.7 44.1 295 10 5 7.5 4.1 | 6.8 44.2 315 4 2 7.9 4.3
7750 7.2 45.0 300 10 5 6.5 3.6 | 7.4 45.3 340 4 2 7.3 4.0
7500 7.7 45.9 305 9 5 6.0 3.3 | 7.9 46.2 360 4 2 7.6 4.2
7250 8.1 46.6 315 9 4 5.8 3.2 | 8.5 47.3 010 4 2 9.4 5.1
7000 8.5 47.3 325 8 4 5.5 3.0 | 9.2 48.6 010 4 2 10.3 5.7
6750 8.9 48.0 335 8 4 5.6 3.1 | 9.9 49.8 015 4 2 9.7 5.3
6500 9.3 48.7 345 9 4 4.6 2.5 | 10.7 51.3 015 4 2 10.2 5.6
6250 9.6 49.3 350 8 4 3.4 1.9 | 11.5 52.7 015 4 2 11.3 6.2
6000 9.8 49.6 350 8 4 3.3 1.8 | 12.3 54.1 015 4 2 10.6 5.8
5750 10.0 50.0 355 7 4 3.4 1.9 | 13.1 55.6 015 4 2 12.4 6.8
5500 10.3 50.5 355 5 3 8.2 4.5 | 14.3 57.7 015 4 2 20.9 11.5
10/05/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/05/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.6 LI... +2.7 | CAPE... +0.7 LI... +1.0
CINH... -1.6 K Index... +19.9 | CINH... -1.7 K Index... +24.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.6 -77.1 225 51 26 2.5 1.4 | -60.4 -76.7 235 45 23 3.1 1.7
45000 -56.8 -70.2 235 77 40 2.8 1.5 | -55.9 -68.6 245 68 35 2.2 1.2
40000 -52.4 -62.3 240 88 46 2.8 1.5 | -52.6 -62.7 245 87 45 2.1 1.1
38000 -50.7 -59.3 240 89 46 2.8 1.5 | -50.9 -59.6 240 88 45 3.0 1.6
36000 -49.1 -56.4 235 88 45 2.8 1.5 | -49.1 -56.4 240 88 45 3.0 1.6
34000 -46.4 -51.5 235 86 44 7.0 3.9 | -46.4 -51.5 240 85 44 6.8 3.7
32000 -42.2 -44.0 235 82 42 7.0 3.8 | -42.3 -44.1 240 80 41 6.8 3.7
30000 -38.1 -36.6 235 76 39 6.7 3.7 | -37.8 -36.0 240 72 37 6.7 3.7
29000 -35.6 -32.1 235 71 36 6.7 3.7 | -35.8 -32.4 240 69 35 6.7 3.7
28000 -33.6 -28.5 235 67 34 6.7 3.7 | -33.8 -28.8 240 65 33 6.7 3.7
27000 -31.5 -24.7 235 63 32 7.3 4.0 | -31.7 -25.1 240 62 32 7.1 3.9
26000 -29.3 -20.7 235 60 31 7.3 4.0 | -29.6 -21.3 240 60 31 7.1 3.9
25000 -27.1 -16.8 235 57 29 7.3 4.0 | -27.5 -17.5 240 57 30 7.1 3.9
24000 -24.9 -12.8 235 54 28 7.8 4.3 | -25.3 -13.5 240 55 28 7.7 4.2
23000 -22.6 -8.7 235 51 26 7.8 4.3 | -23.0 -9.4 240 52 27 7.7 4.2
22000 -20.2 -4.4 235 48 25 7.8 4.3 | -20.7 -5.3 240 50 26 7.7 4.2
21000 -18.0 -0.4 235 45 23 6.3 3.5 | -18.6 -1.5 240 48 25 5.6 3.1
20000 -16.1 3.0 240 44 22 6.4 3.5 | -16.9 1.6 240 47 24 5.8 3.2
19500 -15.2 4.6 240 43 22 6.4 3.5 | -16.0 3.2 240 46 24 5.9 3.2
19000 -14.2 6.4 240 42 22 6.6 3.6 | -15.2 4.6 245 46 24 5.9 3.2
18500 -13.4 7.9 240 41 21 4.6 2.5 | -14.4 6.1 240 45 23 5.7 3.1
18000 -12.8 9.0 240 38 20 4.6 2.5 | -13.5 7.7 240 43 22 5.7 3.1
17500 -12.1 10.2 240 35 18 4.8 2.6 | -12.7 9.1 240 41 21 6.0 3.3
17000 -11.4 11.5 245 33 17 5.2 2.8 | -11.8 10.8 235 39 20 6.7 3.7
16500 -10.7 12.7 245 32 16 5.2 2.9 | -10.9 12.4 225 37 19 6.8 3.7
16000 -10.0 14.0 245 29 15 5.1 2.8 | -9.5 14.9 215 34 18 6.2 3.4
15500 -9.3 15.3 245 26 13 5.1 2.8 | -8.6 16.5 205 33 17 6.3 3.4
15000 -8.1 17.4 235 21 11 6.0 3.3 | -7.6 18.3 200 32 16 7.2 4.0
14500 -7.2 19.0 230 18 9 5.8 3.2 | -6.6 20.1 195 30 15 7.3 4.0
14000 -6.3 20.7 225 16 8 7.6 4.2 | -5.7 21.7 190 26 14 5.6 3.1
13500 -5.2 22.6 220 15 8 7.4 4.1 | -4.8 23.4 185 21 11 5.8 3.2
13000 -4.0 24.8 215 14 7 8.0 4.4 | -4.0 24.8 185 17 9 5.5 3.0
12500 -2.8 27.0 210 14 7 8.0 4.4 | -3.2 26.2 180 13 7 5.5 3.0
12000 -1.6 29.1 205 13 6 7.7 4.2 | -2.4 27.7 170 10 5 5.9 3.2
11500 -0.5 31.1 200 10 5 7.6 4.2 | -1.6 29.1 155 9 5 5.9 3.2
11000 0.7 33.3 190 7 4 7.9 4.3 | -0.7 30.7 140 8 4 6.9 3.8
10500 1.8 35.2 165 3 2 8.6 4.7 | 0.4 32.7 115 8 4 7.7 4.2
10250 2.4 36.3 120 2 1 5.1 2.8 | 0.9 33.6 110 9 5 4.8 2.7
10000 2.7 36.9 105 3 1 6.7 3.7 | 1.2 34.2 100 10 5 6.7 3.7
9750 3.4 38.1 085 3 2 11.2 6.1 | 2.0 35.6 095 11 5 10.9 6.0
9500 4.2 39.6 070 4 2 10.5 5.8 | 2.7 36.9 085 12 6 10.0 5.5
9250 4.9 40.8 060 5 2 8.7 4.8 | 3.4 38.1 080 13 7 9.4 5.2
9000 5.5 41.9 060 5 3 8.5 4.6 | 4.1 39.4 075 14 7 9.1 5.0
8750 6.2 43.2 060 5 3 10.7 5.9 | 4.8 40.6 075 15 8 10.1 5.5
8500 7.0 44.6 060 5 3 10.2 5.6 | 5.6 42.1 070 15 8 9.9 5.4
8250 7.7 45.9 060 5 3 10.2 5.6 | 6.3 43.3 070 16 8 10.1 5.5
8000 8.5 47.3 055 5 3 10.0 5.5 | 7.1 44.8 070 16 8 10.1 5.5
7750 9.2 48.6 055 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 7.8 46.0 065 16 8 9.4 5.2
7500 10.0 50.0 055 5 3 10.0 5.5 | 8.5 47.3 065 16 8 9.6 5.2
7250 10.7 51.3 055 5 3 10.3 5.6 | 9.3 48.7 065 17 9 10.5 5.8
7000 11.5 52.7 055 5 3 10.4 5.7 | 10.1 50.2 065 17 9 10.9 6.0
6750 12.3 54.1 055 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 10.8 51.4 065 17 9 8.9 4.9
6500 13.0 55.4 055 5 3 10.3 5.6 | 11.4 52.5 065 17 9 9.2 5.1
6250 13.8 56.8 050 5 3 11.3 6.2 | 12.2 54.0 065 16 8 11.2 6.1
6000 14.6 58.3 050 5 3 10.6 5.8 | 13.1 55.6 065 16 8 10.6 5.8
5750 15.4 59.7 050 5 3 11.9 6.6 | 13.9 57.0 065 16 8 10.8 5.9
5500 16.5 61.7 050 5 3 19.0 10.4 | 14.7 58.5 060 15 8 11.8 6.5
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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