Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
349
UXUS97 KBOU 030117
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1916 MDT Friday, October 2, 2026
This forecast is for Saturday, October 3, 2026:
If the trigger temperature of 78.5 F/25.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 760 ft/min (3.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14234 ft MSL (8872 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 85.0 F/29.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10427 ft MSL (5065 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 10/04....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 32128 ft MSL (26766 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Sunday 10/04.......... Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:58:03 / 18:38:47 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 40 min 44 sec (700 min 44 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:48:25 MDT... 45.96 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/03/2026 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15619 ft MSL (10257 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18865 ft MSL (13503 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17724 ft MSL (12362 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.0
K index......................... +3.2
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 285 48 25 3.4 1.9 M M M M M
45000 -57.8 -72.0 280 49 25 3.9 2.1 M M M M M
40000 -51.9 -61.4 285 35 18 4.1 2.3 M M M M M
38000 -49.4 -56.9 290 29 15 4.1 2.3 M M M M M
36000 -47.0 -52.6 300 24 12 4.2 2.3 M M M M M
34000 -43.4 -46.1 300 25 13 6.5 3.6 M M M M M
32000 -39.1 -38.4 300 28 14 6.3 3.5 M M M M M
30000 -34.4 -29.9 295 27 14 8.1 4.4 40.5 105.0 8.4 M M
29000 -32.0 -25.6 295 26 13 8.1 4.4 39.9 103.9 8.0 M M
28000 -29.6 -21.3 295 25 13 7.9 4.4 39.4 103.0 7.7 M M
27000 -27.3 -17.1 290 23 12 7.8 4.3 38.6 101.4 7.1 M M
26000 -24.9 -12.8 290 22 11 7.9 4.3 37.9 100.1 6.7 M M
25000 -22.5 -8.5 285 20 11 7.9 4.3 37.3 99.1 6.3 M M
24000 -20.3 -4.5 290 20 10 7.5 4.1 36.4 97.5 5.6 M M
23000 -18.0 -0.4 295 20 10 7.5 4.1 35.5 96.0 5.0 M M
22000 -15.8 3.6 300 21 11 7.6 4.2 34.8 94.7 4.4 M M
21000 -13.4 7.9 300 21 11 8.2 4.5 34.2 93.5 3.9 M M
20000 -11.0 12.2 305 21 11 8.2 4.5 33.6 92.5 3.5 M M
19500 -9.7 14.5 305 21 11 8.2 4.5 33.4 92.1 3.3 M M
19000 -8.5 16.7 305 21 11 8.3 4.5 33.2 91.7 3.1 M M
18500 -7.3 18.9 305 20 10 8.3 4.5 32.9 91.2 2.9 M M
18000 -5.4 22.3 305 20 10 8.4 4.6 32.6 90.6 2.6 M M
17500 -4.2 24.4 310 19 10 8.4 4.6 32.3 90.2 2.4 M M
17000 -2.9 26.8 310 18 9 8.1 4.4 32.1 89.8 2.2 M M
16500 -1.8 28.8 310 17 9 7.5 4.1 31.7 89.1 1.9 M M
16000 -0.7 30.7 310 16 8 7.6 4.2 31.4 88.4 1.5 M M
15500 0.4 32.7 310 15 8 6.7 3.7 30.9 87.6 1.1 M M
15000 1.4 34.5 310 14 7 6.8 3.7 30.4 86.8 0.7 M M
14500 2.4 36.3 310 13 7 6.6 3.6 29.9 85.9 0.2 M M
14000 3.3 37.9 310 12 6 6.6 3.6 29.4 84.9 -0.3 735 3.7
13500 4.3 39.7 310 10 5 6.8 3.7 28.9 84.0 -0.8 692 3.5
13000 5.3 41.5 310 9 5 7.1 3.9 28.4 83.2 -1.2 647 3.3
12500 6.3 43.3 310 8 4 7.4 4.1 28.0 82.4 -1.7 602 3.1
12000 7.5 45.5 310 8 4 8.2 4.5 27.7 81.9 -2.0 553 2.8
11500 8.6 47.5 305 7 3 8.2 4.5 27.5 81.5 -2.3 503 2.6
11000 9.9 49.8 305 6 3 8.2 4.5 27.3 81.1 -2.6 452 2.3
10500 11.1 52.0 305 5 3 5.2 2.8 27.1 80.7 -2.8 400 2.0
10250 11.3 52.3 305 5 3 5.7 3.1 26.6 79.8 -3.3 385 2.0
10000 12.0 53.6 305 5 3 10.6 5.8 26.5 79.8 -3.4 358 1.8
9750 12.7 54.9 305 5 3 10.2 5.6 26.6 79.8 -3.4 328 1.7
9500 13.5 56.3 300 5 2 9.2 5.0 26.6 79.9 -3.3 298 1.5
9250 14.1 57.4 300 5 2 7.0 3.8 26.5 79.6 -3.5 274 1.4
9000 14.6 58.3 300 5 2 8.4 4.6 26.3 79.3 -3.7 250 1.3
8750 15.3 59.5 300 5 2 10.2 5.6 26.3 79.3 -3.7 222 1.1
8500 16.0 60.8 305 4 2 8.5 4.7 26.3 79.3 -3.8 193 1.0
8250 16.6 61.9 300 5 2 6.9 3.8 26.1 78.9 -4.0 169 0.9
8000 17.1 62.8 300 5 3 7.1 3.9 25.9 78.6 -4.2 147 0.7
7750 17.6 63.7 300 5 3 7.8 4.3 25.7 78.2 -4.4 123 0.6
7500 18.2 64.8 300 5 3 6.5 3.6 25.5 77.9 -4.6 99 0.5
7250 18.5 65.3 300 6 3 5.2 2.9 25.2 77.3 -4.9 81 0.4
7000 18.9 66.0 300 7 3 5.7 3.1 24.9 76.8 -5.3 62 0.3
6750 19.2 66.6 300 7 4 2.6 1.4 24.5 76.1 -5.7 45 0.2
6500 19.2 66.6 295 7 4 -1.8 -1.0 23.7 74.7 -6.5 38 0.2
6250 19.0 66.2 285 7 4 -4.9 -2.7 22.8 73.0 -7.5 39 0.2
6000 18.7 65.7 275 7 4 1.8 1.0 21.8 71.2 -8.5 39 0.2
5750 18.7 65.7 270 7 4 -8.6 -4.7 21.1 70.1 -9.2 30 0.2
5500 16.6 61.9 250 5 3 -46.9 -25.7 18.3 65.0 -12.1 87 0.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/03/2026 at 0900 MDT | 10/03/2026 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.1 | CAPE... +0.2 LI... +2.4
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +8.4 | CINH... -8.4 K Index... +9.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.5 -82.3 285 50 26 3.6 2.0 | -63.1 -81.6 290 51 26 2.8 1.5
45000 -57.8 -72.0 285 53 27 3.7 2.0 | -58.4 -73.1 290 54 28 3.6 2.0
40000 -52.2 -62.0 290 39 20 4.2 2.3 | -52.9 -63.2 290 42 22 4.5 2.5
38000 -49.7 -57.5 290 30 15 4.2 2.3 | -50.2 -58.4 290 33 17 4.5 2.5
36000 -47.1 -52.8 300 21 11 4.3 2.4 | -47.5 -53.5 280 24 12 4.6 2.5
34000 -43.5 -46.3 300 20 10 6.7 3.7 | -43.6 -46.5 285 22 11 7.3 4.0
32000 -39.0 -38.2 300 22 11 6.6 3.6 | -39.2 -38.6 295 23 12 7.4 4.0
30000 -34.4 -29.9 295 24 12 7.8 4.3 | -34.0 -29.2 295 22 11 7.8 4.3
29000 -32.1 -25.8 295 25 13 7.8 4.3 | -31.7 -25.1 300 21 11 7.8 4.3
28000 -29.8 -21.6 295 26 13 7.7 4.2 | -29.4 -20.9 300 21 11 7.4 4.0
27000 -27.5 -17.5 295 26 13 7.6 4.2 | -27.3 -17.1 300 21 11 7.1 3.9
26000 -25.2 -13.4 295 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -25.2 -13.4 300 21 11 7.1 3.9
25000 -23.0 -9.4 300 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -23.1 -9.6 300 22 11 7.2 3.9
24000 -20.7 -5.3 300 24 13 7.8 4.3 | -20.7 -5.3 305 22 11 7.9 4.4
23000 -18.3 -0.9 300 24 12 7.8 4.3 | -18.4 -1.1 305 22 11 7.9 4.4
22000 -16.0 3.2 305 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -16.0 3.2 305 22 11 7.8 4.3
21000 -13.7 7.3 305 22 11 7.8 4.3 | -13.8 7.2 305 22 11 7.4 4.1
20000 -11.4 11.5 305 21 11 7.8 4.3 | -11.6 11.1 305 21 11 7.5 4.1
19500 -10.2 13.6 305 20 10 7.8 4.3 | -10.5 13.1 305 21 11 7.5 4.1
19000 -9.1 15.6 305 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -9.4 15.1 305 20 11 7.0 3.8
18500 -8.0 17.6 305 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -8.4 16.9 305 20 10 7.0 3.9
18000 -6.3 20.7 305 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -7.3 18.9 305 19 10 7.1 3.9
17500 -5.2 22.6 310 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -5.8 21.6 310 18 9 7.1 3.9
17000 -4.1 24.6 310 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -4.7 23.5 310 17 9 7.1 3.9
16500 -3.0 26.6 310 15 8 7.0 3.9 | -3.7 25.3 310 16 8 7.0 3.9
16000 -2.0 28.4 310 14 7 7.0 3.9 | -2.6 27.3 310 16 8 7.1 3.9
15500 -1.0 30.2 315 13 7 7.1 3.9 | -1.6 29.1 315 15 8 7.8 4.3
15000 0.1 32.2 315 12 6 7.1 3.9 | -0.4 31.3 315 15 8 7.7 4.2
14500 1.1 34.0 320 11 6 7.5 4.1 | 0.7 33.3 315 14 7 8.0 4.4
14000 2.2 36.0 325 10 5 7.6 4.2 | 1.9 35.4 320 14 7 8.0 4.4
13500 3.4 38.1 330 9 5 7.9 4.4 | 3.1 37.6 320 14 7 8.1 4.4
13000 4.6 40.3 335 9 4 8.1 4.5 | 4.3 39.7 320 13 7 8.2 4.5
12500 5.8 42.4 340 8 4 8.3 4.5 | 5.5 41.9 325 13 7 8.1 4.5
12000 7.0 44.6 340 8 4 8.4 4.6 | 6.7 44.1 325 12 6 8.1 4.4
11500 8.2 46.8 340 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 7.9 46.2 330 11 6 8.3 4.6
11000 9.5 49.1 340 8 4 8.4 4.6 | 9.1 48.4 335 10 5 8.3 4.6
10500 10.8 51.4 340 8 4 5.3 2.9 | 10.4 50.7 340 9 5 4.9 2.7
10250 11.0 51.8 340 7 4 5.6 3.1 | 10.6 51.1 345 9 5 5.9 3.3
10000 11.7 53.1 340 7 4 10.6 5.8 | 11.4 52.5 350 9 5 11.6 6.3
9750 12.4 54.3 340 8 4 10.5 5.8 | 12.2 54.0 350 9 4 11.0 6.1
9500 13.2 55.8 335 8 4 8.8 4.8 | 12.9 55.2 355 8 4 8.8 4.8
9250 13.7 56.7 340 7 4 6.6 3.6 | 13.4 56.1 360 8 4 6.3 3.4
9000 14.2 57.6 340 7 4 8.5 4.7 | 14.0 57.2 360 9 4 9.0 4.9
8750 14.9 58.8 335 7 4 9.9 5.5 | 14.7 58.5 005 8 4 10.2 5.6
8500 15.6 60.1 335 8 4 8.4 4.6 | 15.4 59.7 005 8 4 8.8 4.8
8250 16.2 61.2 335 7 4 7.2 3.9 | 16.0 60.8 005 8 4 7.5 4.1
8000 16.7 62.1 335 7 4 7.8 4.3 | 16.5 61.7 010 8 4 9.5 5.2
7750 17.3 63.1 335 7 4 8.0 4.4 | 17.3 63.1 010 7 4 11.1 6.1
7500 17.8 64.0 330 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 18.1 64.6 010 7 4 9.1 5.0
7250 18.2 64.8 330 8 4 5.5 3.0 | 18.7 65.7 010 7 4 7.5 4.1
7000 18.7 65.7 330 7 4 6.2 3.4 | 19.3 66.7 010 7 4 9.8 5.4
6750 19.1 66.4 325 7 4 4.7 2.6 | 20.1 68.2 010 7 3 12.1 6.6
6500 19.3 66.7 315 7 4 1.7 0.9 | 21.0 69.8 010 6 3 10.6 5.8
6250 19.4 66.9 310 6 3 2.5 1.4 | 21.7 71.1 010 6 3 10.0 5.5
6000 19.5 67.1 300 6 3 -1.7 -0.9 | 22.5 72.5 010 6 3 9.4 5.2
5750 19.1 66.4 290 5 3 -6.5 -3.6 | 23.3 73.9 010 6 3 14.5 7.9
5500 18.7 65.7 265 4 2 -1.5 -0.8 | 24.8 76.6 010 6 3 25.2 13.8
10/03/2026 at 1500 MDT | 10/03/2026 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +3.0 LI... +1.7 | CAPE... +5.2 LI... +1.9
CINH... -44.8 K Index... +15.6 | CINH... -43.2 K Index... +23.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.0 -81.4 290 52 27 3.0 1.7 | -62.2 -80.0 290 45 23 3.3 1.8
45000 -57.9 -72.2 290 58 30 3.7 2.0 | -57.3 -71.1 295 52 27 2.6 1.4
40000 -52.4 -62.3 295 47 24 4.1 2.2 | -53.2 -63.8 295 48 25 4.9 2.7
38000 -50.0 -58.0 295 41 21 4.1 2.2 | -50.3 -58.5 300 43 22 4.7 2.6
36000 -47.5 -53.5 290 34 17 4.2 2.3 | -47.5 -53.5 305 38 20 4.8 2.6
34000 -43.8 -46.8 290 29 15 7.0 3.8 | -43.6 -46.5 305 35 18 7.1 3.9
32000 -39.1 -38.4 290 23 12 6.8 3.7 | -38.8 -37.8 305 31 16 7.0 3.9
30000 -34.6 -30.3 300 17 9 7.6 4.2 | -34.4 -29.9 300 24 13 7.4 4.1
29000 -32.3 -26.1 305 15 8 7.6 4.2 | -32.2 -26.0 300 20 10 7.4 4.1
28000 -30.0 -22.0 320 12 6 7.6 4.2 | -29.9 -21.8 295 16 8 7.4 4.1
27000 -27.8 -18.0 320 14 7 7.7 4.2 | -27.7 -17.9 300 14 7 7.4 4.0
26000 -25.5 -13.9 320 15 8 7.7 4.2 | -25.5 -13.9 305 12 6 7.4 4.0
25000 -23.2 -9.8 320 16 8 7.7 4.2 | -23.3 -9.9 315 11 6 7.4 4.1
24000 -20.8 -5.4 320 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -20.9 -5.6 325 11 5 8.2 4.5
23000 -18.3 -0.9 320 18 9 8.3 4.5 | -18.5 -1.3 330 11 6 8.2 4.5
22000 -15.8 3.6 325 18 9 8.1 4.4 | -16.1 3.0 340 12 6 8.1 4.4
21000 -13.6 7.5 320 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -13.8 7.2 335 13 7 7.7 4.2
20000 -11.4 11.5 320 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -11.5 11.3 330 15 8 7.7 4.2
19500 -10.2 13.6 320 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -10.4 13.3 325 16 8 7.9 4.3
19000 -9.2 15.4 320 19 10 5.7 3.2 | -9.4 15.1 325 17 9 5.7 3.1
18500 -8.4 16.9 315 19 10 5.8 3.2 | -8.1 17.4 315 18 9 5.9 3.2
18000 -7.0 19.4 315 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -7.3 18.9 315 18 9 6.3 3.4
17500 -5.9 21.4 315 19 10 7.7 4.2 | -6.4 20.5 310 17 9 6.4 3.5
17000 -4.8 23.4 315 19 10 8.0 4.4 | -5.6 21.9 310 16 8 7.3 4.0
16500 -3.6 25.5 315 18 10 8.4 4.6 | -4.4 24.1 310 14 7 8.3 4.6
16000 -2.3 27.9 320 18 9 8.4 4.6 | -3.2 26.2 310 12 6 8.4 4.6
15500 -1.2 29.8 320 18 9 7.6 4.2 | -1.9 28.6 310 11 5 8.5 4.6
15000 -0.1 31.8 325 17 9 7.7 4.2 | -0.7 30.7 310 9 5 8.5 4.7
14500 1.1 34.0 325 17 9 8.1 4.4 | 0.5 32.9 315 8 4 7.8 4.3
14000 2.2 36.0 330 16 8 8.2 4.5 | 1.7 35.1 325 7 3 7.8 4.3
13500 3.4 38.1 330 15 8 8.3 4.6 | 2.9 37.2 345 6 3 8.1 4.4
13000 4.6 40.3 335 14 7 8.4 4.6 | 4.1 39.4 005 5 3 8.2 4.5
12500 5.8 42.4 340 13 7 8.4 4.6 | 5.4 41.7 030 5 3 8.5 4.6
12000 7.0 44.6 350 11 6 8.3 4.6 | 6.7 44.1 040 6 3 8.7 4.8
11500 8.3 46.9 360 9 5 8.5 4.7 | 8.0 46.4 045 7 4 9.0 4.9
11000 9.6 49.3 005 9 4 8.6 4.7 | 9.3 48.7 050 8 4 9.1 5.0
10500 10.9 51.6 010 8 4 5.7 3.2 | 10.7 51.3 050 8 4 5.9 3.2
10250 11.2 52.2 010 8 4 7.2 4.0 | 11.1 52.0 050 9 5 6.7 3.7
10000 12.0 53.6 010 8 4 12.1 6.6 | 11.8 53.2 050 9 5 11.7 6.4
9750 12.9 55.2 015 7 4 11.3 6.2 | 12.7 54.9 055 10 5 10.9 6.0
9500 13.7 56.7 015 7 4 9.5 5.2 | 13.5 56.3 055 10 5 9.4 5.2
9250 14.3 57.7 015 7 4 7.5 4.1 | 14.1 57.4 055 10 5 7.8 4.3
9000 14.9 58.8 015 7 4 10.0 5.5 | 14.7 58.5 055 11 6 9.8 5.4
8750 15.7 60.3 020 7 4 11.3 6.2 | 15.5 59.9 055 11 6 10.8 5.9
8500 16.5 61.7 020 7 4 10.0 5.5 | 16.3 61.3 055 12 6 9.2 5.1
8250 17.2 63.0 020 7 4 8.9 4.9 | 16.9 62.4 050 12 6 7.8 4.3
8000 17.9 64.2 025 7 4 9.9 5.4 | 17.5 63.5 050 13 7 9.3 5.1
7750 18.7 65.7 025 7 4 10.6 5.8 | 18.2 64.8 050 13 7 10.4 5.7
7500 19.5 67.1 025 7 4 9.9 5.5 | 19.0 66.2 050 14 7 9.5 5.2
7250 20.2 68.4 030 7 3 9.4 5.2 | 19.7 67.5 050 14 7 8.8 4.8
7000 20.9 69.6 030 7 3 10.0 5.5 | 20.3 68.5 045 14 7 9.5 5.2
6750 21.7 71.1 030 7 3 10.8 5.9 | 21.1 70.0 045 14 7 10.0 5.5
6500 22.5 72.5 030 6 3 10.5 5.8 | 21.8 71.2 045 14 7 9.6 5.3
6250 23.3 73.9 035 6 3 10.3 5.7 | 22.5 72.5 045 14 7 9.4 5.1
6000 24.0 75.2 035 6 3 9.9 5.4 | 23.2 73.8 045 13 7 9.5 5.2
5750 24.8 76.6 035 6 3 14.1 7.7 | 23.9 75.0 040 12 6 8.5 4.6
5500 26.2 79.2 035 6 3 22.5 12.4 | 24.4 75.9 040 10 5 6.6 3.6
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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