001
FXUS61 KBOX 251835
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Cape Cod from 8
this evening through 7 am Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather for most areas except the Cape and Islands
  Sunday and Monday. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for
  Cape Cod tonight through early Monday.

- Temperatures on the lower end of seasonable as periodic
  chances for showers and thunderstorms return Mon-Wed (possibly
  into Thurs). Monitoring for increasing chances of localized
  heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair weather for most areas except the Cape and
Islands Sunday and Monday. A Rip Current Statement has been
issued for Cape Cod tonight into Sunday.

Another mostly clear day Sunday as weak high pressure maintains
control. Height falls ahead of an approaching trough and a low
pressure system passing well offshore brings moisture and clouds
to the Cape and Islands Sunday afternoon. Model soundings
indicate a shallow layer of moisture at the surface with dry air
above. It is more likely that this layer will be too shallow to
support any showers/drizzle. A worst case would be some patchy
drizzle for the outer Cape/Islands. Aside from the clouds in
some areas, it will be a mainly dry day with a northeasterly
breeze for the eastern coastal areas. Temperatures likely range
in the low to mid 80s for the interior and mid to upper 70s in
the eastern and coastal areas.

A Rip Current Statement has been issued for the Cape as
easterly winds and prolonged swells leads to a moderate to high
chance for rip currents. While the highest risk exists along the
Cape, an elevated chance of rip currents spans the south and
east coastline with the greatest risk for the east-facing
beaches along the Cape and Islands and portions of the east
coast of MA.

Slightly warmer conditions across the interior on Monday with
925 mb temps warming to +20-23C translating to max temps in the
mid and upper 80s. A deeper shortwave trough moves overhead, and
with associated mid-level cooling should introduce increasing
cloud cover by the afternoon. Guidance shows a 20-40% chance of
showers across western portions of the CWA as forcing and
instability build.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures on the lower end of seasonable as
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return Mon-Wed
(possibly into Thurs). Monitoring for increasing chances of
localized heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding.

Ensemble guidance has started to come into better consensus
that a low pressure system will traverse through the Great Lakes
Monday/Tuesday and into New England around Wednesday. This
system will likely be accompanied by several embedded shortwaves
and a mid- level trough, bringing chances for a few rounds of
showers, and possibly thunderstorms, Monday through Wednesday...
possibly lingering into Thursday. There continues to be a
strong signal for PWATs 120-170 percent of normal to advect into
the region by Tuesday, with deterministic guidance on the
extreme high end of that range. Some guidance is also honing in
on some potential for the low to slow on approach to New England
as well as slower mid-level wind speeds, which would create an
environment for training storms. Combined with the enhanced
forcing of the low, the higher PWATs and potential for training,
localized heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding are
becoming something to watch for. Unfortunately, there still
remains a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance regarding
where exactly the low could track, with some models indicating
the low moving further south near NYC and some further north
through northern MA. Depending on where exactly the low tracks,
it`s possible the threat ends up west/south of the region or
confined to western portions of southern New England.

Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to remain on the
lower end of seasonable, even dipping to slightly below normal
at times given 850mb temperatures hovering around +12C to +14C
through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Saturday night...Moderate confidence.

VFR for most. Very low chance of some marginal VFR/MVFR
conditions across Cape and Island terminals. Best chance would
be ACK after 05z. Otherwise, light and variable winds.

Sunday...High confidence overall (Moderate for cigs in far
east).

VFR for most. Uncertainty in the potential for low clouds in
eastern MA and how far west they extend will be the main
challenge. Greatest risk for Cape and Nantucket with MVFR
ceilings possible. E winds for the interior 5-10 kts. NE winds
for east coast terminals 8-12 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-4 ft through Monday. Increasing winds
and seas for Sunday; however, below SCA. NE winds 8-12 kts with
gusts to 20 kts and seas 2-4 ft with 5 ft for the outermost
southern waters. Seas increase to 4-6 ft later Tuesday afternoon
with SCA conditions becoming More likely.

Increased risk for rip currents Sunday with the greatest risk
for the east-facing beaches/coastline.

Outlook /Monday

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday morning for MAZ022.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn/FT
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...McMinn/FT