009
FXUS61 KBOX 160508
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
108 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and
blustery conditions Thursday with ocean effect clouds along the
southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers
towards the Cape and Islands later Thursday and Thursday night.
Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more
unsettled as we move into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages

* Chilly and blustery tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s

Tonight

Deep north/northwest flow continues to usher cool/dry air over
southern New England tonight. 925 hPa temps dip to near freezing.
This will support surface temperatures in the low to mid 30s across
southern New England. Temperatures will be more mild near the coast
in the upper 30s to low 40s...mid 40s Cape Cod. Tight pressure
gradient will support steady northwest winds from 10-15 mph
overnight which will yield wind chill temperatures near or below
freezing for most of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages

* Cooler temperatures tomorrow with continued gusty north/northwest
  winds

* Ocean effect rain showers likely over parts of The South Shore,
  Cape Cod, and The Islands.

Tomorrow

Little change in the overall synoptic setup tomorrow, though
temperatures will be much cooler as an upper-level low over northern
Maine digs south/southeast past southern New England during the day
tomorrow. This will place a rather robust upper-level cold pool over
our area with 500 hPa temps as low as -25C over southern New England
and 925 hPa temps below 0C to start Thursday. Steep lapse rates will
support efficient diurnal mixing which will result in high
temperatures in the low-mid 50s and also periods of 25-30 mph
northwest wind gusts across southern New England. The cooler air
over the relatively warmer ocean will likely result in some ocean-
effect showers over Cape Cod, The Islands, and perhaps sections of
The South Shore beginning tomorrow afternoon. Overall a cool/windy
day.

Tomorrow Night

The atmosphere will likely decouple across the interior overnight,
bringing an end to gusty northwest winds for most locations.
However, milder temperatures near the coast may continue to support
steep low-level lapse rates and enough mixing to support continued
gusty northwest winds overnight, particularly over Cape Cod.
Expected continued ocean effect showers over The Cape/Islands
tomorrow night as well. There won`t be a whole lot of moisture to
work with so we`re not anticipating any significant accumulations,
but perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of new rainfall by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun
* Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain

Details...

Friday/Saturday/Sunday...

A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough
shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather
with moderating temperatures. High temps Fri should be in the upper
50s to lower 60s with still some NW wind gusts around 20 mph. 850T
warm significantly by Saturday and while we will not be able to mix
that deep or fully realize at the surface...still expect highs to
reach the lower to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts
east of the region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and
70 on Sunday.

Early Next Week...

A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great
Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front
extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a
period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly
in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a
few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure
system developing near or south of southern New England. If this
were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime
Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our
south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at
least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night
into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit
above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps
will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today: High Confidence

VFR with MVFR possible over the Cape and Islands and Ocean
effect strato cumulus form. Boundary layer winds will continue
to stay decoupled overnight which will lead to windshear issues
as 2kft winds increase to 30-35 knots. After Sunrise, Stronger
winds aloft will begin to mix down brining NW gusts of 25-30
knots for all terminals.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft
will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There
is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the
surface again tomorrow night. Given the possibility, opted to
include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight.


Tomorrow: High Confidence

VFR. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots
inland, 30 knots near the waters.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds gusting up to 30 knots today. Less windy
overnight, but winds at 2kft turn more northerly and increase
to 35-40 knots.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds up to 25 knots. Less windy overnight, but winds at
2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Marine

Through Thursday Night

Gusty northwest winds will dominate the coastal waters through
Friday. 20-30 knot winds overnight will gradually increase to 25-35
knots tomorrow afternoon. Seas build to 4 to 7 feet overnight and
increase to 5 to 10 feet tomorrow evening. Seas will be lower off
the south coast in the 3 to 5 foot range.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ230-233-234-236.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Frank/RM