033
FXUS61 KBOX 102336
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
736 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west, bring drier and colder
conditions into Saturday. A coastal storm brings rain and gusty
winds to start next week, along with the minor coastal flooding and
erosion. Unsettled weather will be possible through much of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...

* Dry and much warmer than last night

High pressure overhead continues to dominate overnight leading to
light winds and continued dry weather. There will, though, be more
low level moisture advected from the south in the form of low/mid
level clouds which (along with a steadily warming airmass) leads to
low temps 10-15 degrees warmer than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry and a mild, in the mid to upper 60s

High pressure continues to shift east for the first half of the
weekend directing warmer SW flow into SNE. This will have a decent
moderating effect on temperatures, bringing highs back up to near
normal for mid October, in the mid to upper 60s. Expect a mix of sun
and clouds much of the day with lingering low level moisture early
then expanding high clouds ahead of the approaching coastal system.
Cloud cover continues to thicken overnight but rain should hold off
through the overnight hours as model soundings indicate plenty of
dry air to overcome.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Coastal storm arrives Sunday afternoon with its effects lasting
  through Tuesday

* Cooler air may move in towards the end of the week following the
  storm withs some showers lingering

A coastal low will continue to make its way up the eastern US
coastline, approaching southern New England by Sunday
afternoon/evening. Ensembles continue to indicate the highest chance
for 24 hour totals at or over an inch by Monday night being over
eastern MA into RI. Spots along the south coast could see totals
approaching 2" Sunday through Monday morning, with totals decreasing
a bit northward. Generally, though, an inch or so of rain may fall
Sunday into Monday morning.

Winds will pick up Sunday as the storm approaches and the pressure
gradient between the storm and a strong Canadian high pressure
tightens. Gusts close to 50 MPH will be possible over the Islands,
with the Cape seeing gusts around 45 MPH; the rest of southern New
England can expect gusts to 30-35 MPH. With higher confidence in
these elevated winds over the Cape and Islands, we issued a High
Wind Watch for Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket and opted for a Wind
Advisory for Cape Cod. With the combination of higher seas and
winds, some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled
out.

Once the storm shifts out to sea, we may start to see even cooler
conditions with rain chances starting to decrease. Some guidance is
indicating it expanding a bit, and as surface high pressure behind
an upper level trough cutting down from Canada moves in towards
Friday, the gradient between these systems may end up elevating
winds slightly once more. NW winds will help advect in cooler air as
well, with 925 mb temperatures sinking to 5C and lower. This would
favor highs in the mid 50s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

No major changes.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. There will be a deck of potentially BKN MVFR ceilings over
south coastal RI/MA terminals, possibly HFD/BDL overnight but
more likely they remain FEW/SCT. Low probability that they make
it to BOS, and if so, should still remain VFR. Included in TAF
just in case. SW winds under 10 kt.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

Any MVFR ceilings from overnight lift to VFR decks during
Sat. Ceilings lower into the lower-end VFR range early Sun AM.
Winds become light and variable during the late-AM/early-PM,
before becoming E-NE around 5-10 kt Sat aftn, and around 10 kt
by early Sun AM.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA likely.

Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday... High confidence.

Relatively light winds and seas during this time with high
pressure over the waters. Good visibility.

Saturday night...High confidence.

E/NE wind gusts increase to 20-30 kts by sunrise over the
southern waters, with seas increasing to 5-8 ft. A Storm Watch
has been issued to address potential for stronger winds over
the waters late Sunday and Monday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 20 ft. Rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Columbus Day: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 19 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 15 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough
seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for MAZ007-015-016-019>024.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MAZ022.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MAZ023-024.
RI...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
     night for RIZ004>008.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening
     for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for
     ANZ230-236.
     Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin
MARINE...BW/Hrencecin