457
FXUS61 KBOX 311145
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
745 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday,
bringing an extended stretch of dry weather, seasonable
temperatures and northeast breezes. Northeast winds may become a
little stronger on Tuesday for southeast New England as low
pressure passes well east of the benchmark. Turns warmer and a
little more humid by Friday, with a cold front bringing a
welcomed rain. High pressure returns for the weekend, bringing
Cooler temperatures and dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Mostly sunny and dry with seasonable temps, although with
  seabreezes near the coasts. Highs 70s with lows in the upper
  40s to the mid 50s.

Details:

No substantive change to the large-scale pattern driving our
weather, with the main features being a deamplifying upper low
over northeast ME and sfc ridging extending SE into southern New
England from a large 1024 mb high pressure over northern
Wisconsin. For most away from the coast, light winds and a cool
airmass is allowing for current temps more reminiscent of early
Fall with values in the 40s to lower 50s. Otherwise, dry weather
continues to govern with low precipitable water values.

Expect another day of dry weather, plenty of sun and seasonable
temperatures to mark the close to August today. Only difference
is that winds will be lighter and turn onshore as we move into
the late morning to early afternoon, keeping coastal areas a few
degrees cooler than well inland. Highs reaching into the 70s
with full sun with upper 70s/near 80 CT Valley, but in the low
70s near the coasts with a light onshore breeze.

Mostly clear and dry weather tonight too for the majority of
Southern New England. While light, may be just enough of an
onshore wind to keep temps slightly milder for the southern
coasts. Upper-level moisture may also advect northward leading
to some increased high clouds for the southern roughly third of
Southern New England. Lows upper 40s to mid 50s, with mid/upper
50s near the southeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Onshore flow continues Mon and Tue but still dry with seasonable
  temps.

* NE winds increase on Tue over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands to
  around 15-20 mph.

* Borderline, but monitoring for possible rip currents against east-
  facing beaches Tue as low pressure passes well east of 40N/70W.

Details:

Monday and Tuesday:

Sfc high pressure will shift into ME on Monday and remain in place
through Tuesday. This will keep an onshore NE flow going, with
somewhat milder but still seasonable temps inland and cooler temps
near the eastern coasts. A shortwave disturbance aloft seen on early-
morning water vapor imagery near NW Ohio digs southeast today and
closes off over the mid-Atlantic states tonight, which then rotates
N/NW into NY/western New England by early on Tue. What this feature
will do for Monday is draw a stream of mid to upper-level moisture
northward, leading to a more filtered-sun look but it`s otherwise a
continued dry day with deep dry air seen on model forecast
soundings. Highs on Monday in the 70s, except low 70s near the
coast.

For Tuesday, a weak low pressure currently off the Carolinas is
forecast to pass well east of 40N/70W, with pretty strong model
consensus on that track. With sfc high pressure still in
control, expect another day of dry weather and seasonable for
the majority of Southern New England. For southeast New England
though, and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands, with a
tightening gradient, expect a bit stronger northeast breezes to
around 15-20 mph. Something we`ll be watching for Tuesday too is
the potential for rip currents on the east-facing coasts of
Cape Cod and Nantucket, as this low pressure passes well to our
east; it`s borderline, but it`s notable that the ECMWF model
shows offshore waves building to about 6 ft Tuesday. With
beaches becoming unguarded, we might need to consider a rip
current statement at worst, but forecast wave heights look too
low for high surf advisories. Otherwise, highs should again
reach into the 70s, though it may be a struggle to reach the low
70s with the breezes over southeast MA and the Cape/Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry weather, seasonable temps with seabreezes through at least
  Thurs.

* Brief warming trend Fri and turning a little more humid, as cold
  front is likely to bring welcomed rains.

* Cooling off and turning less humid into the weekend.

Details:

Still under high pressure with dry and seasonable weather
through Thursday. Thus, expect a continuation of the same themes
with seasonable temps, dry weather, plenty of sun during the
day and clear skies/cooler nights.

Looks to turn a little more humid, but not oppressively so, as
we move into late Thurs and Fri, due to increased southerly flow
ahead of a digging upper low over the Gt Lakes. Its related sfc
frontal system looks to arrive on Fri and taps into a
subtropical airmass in the southerly flow (PWATs around 1.5
inches, which are about 2 standard deviations above normal).
Thus we should see a pretty decent and welcomed rainfall with
PoPs in the high chance to Likely range. We then dry out and
cool off again for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today through Monday: High confidence.

VFR through the period.

Winds start off light NW to N today but become onshore around
5-10 kt late this morning. Onshore winds kick back to SSW after
00z becoming light N later tonight. Light N flow acros the rest
of the interior. Mid and high clouds move in overnight.

A bit more in the way of high clouds for Monday but still VFR
with NE winds around 5-10 kt.

Monday Night through Tuesday: High confidence.

Still VFR for Monday night and Tuesday, but NE winds pick up a
bit, especially along the southeast coast. While winds are light
northerly for most of Southern New England, NE winds become
around 10-15 kt for the east coast and around 15-20 kt for the
Cape and Islands.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday Night: High confidence.

Winds/seas below SCA criterion in this period. Light N winds
become NE/E today around 10-15 kt, becoming light tonight. NE
winds around 5-10 kt Monday, increasing to around 15-20 kt Mon
night. Seas 4ft or less all waters.

Tuesday: Moderate confidence.

NE winds increase to near-SCA levels (around 20-25 kt) over the
southeast waters, with seas nearing 4-6 ft. May need SCAs for
waters adjacent to Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible risk of
rip currents against east-facing beaches. Elsewhere, NE winds
around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto