178
FXUS61 KBOX 021047
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
547 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and anomalous warmth continues into mid-week. Daily high
  in the upper 60s to low 70s, with isolated readings into the
  mid-70s flirting with daily records.

- Pattern becomes more unsettled late-week into the weekend
  featuring periodic chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and unseasonably mild into mid-week with highs
mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Some spots may reach into
the middle 70s for a day or two and challenge record highs.

Little change in the synoptic pattern as a stout upper ridge remains
parked overhead through midweek. With ongoing antecedent dry
conditions, leaned on the warmer envelope of guidance instead of the
MOS/NBM output which continues to run a bit too cool for afternoon
highs. Highs will generally peak in the upper 60s to low 70s (cooler
along the immediate south coast, Cape, and Islands). With 925mb
temps warming to +11C to +15C, peak heating towards mid-week likely
push locations in interior SNE to the mid 70s, likely putting
several daily high records in jeopardy. Only real fly in the
ointment will be scattered high clouds periodically filtering the
full sun through mid-week. High confidence persists in an
unseasonably mild, dry regime through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Pattern becomes more unsettled late-week into the
weekend featuring periodic chances for rain.

Ensemble guidance shows a consensus in a shift of the pattern late
Thursday into Friday as a mid-level trough arrives from the west.
This will advect in a plume of rich moisture 2-3 standard deviations
above normal. This will be accompanied by a frontal system that
pushes across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. This will likely bring us our next best shot at
precipitation. Details such as timing, rain amounts/rates are still
lower confidence due to uncertainty in the tracking of the surface
features/best forcing. If the frontal features track closer, this
could put southern New England in better forced environment and
potentially with marginal instability present. This could favor a
few rumbles of thunders or heavier downpours. Timing of this is low
confidence due to the track uncertainties, but the general timeframe
is late Thu through Sat. Lighter/spotty showers may linger at
late as Sunday. However, it likely won`t be rain for the entire
timeframe.

Ensemble guidance highlights probabilities of 30-60% for rain totals
of 0.50" or more and low probabilities (10-30%) for 1.0" or greater.
Deterministic solutions have leaned toward the upper percentile
solutions of their ensemble suite showing potential for amounts 1.0
to upward of 2.0" inches. Once guidance comes into better agreement,
confidence will increase in the exact timing of rainfall and totals.

Above normal temperatures are likely Thursday with the mid-level
thermal ridge shifting over southern New England with 925mb
temperatures +13-15C. This will support high temperatures in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s! Temperatures likely lean seasonably warm
for Friday as well. Depending on how the system tracks, we may get
one more day of milder temperatures Saturday with more
seasonable temperatures arriving by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

Forecast remains largely on track from the last update. VFR
conditions will continue through the middle of the week with
some mid-high level cloudiness at times. Winds will generally
average from the SW at 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon/s.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Some gusts near 20 kts
are possible this afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. RA likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday...High confidence.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below
small craft advisory thresholds through the middle of the week.
Nonetheless...we may have some SW wind gusts of 20+ knots at times
particularly nearshore during the afternoons. This may result in
some choppy seas at times...but thinking we should remain below the
need for headlines. Greatest chance of 20+ knot winds develops
this afternoon across the SE waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/FT
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...Frank/FT