235
FXUS61 KBOX 020837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
437 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the southern
waters through this evening for gusty winds and elevated seas.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last warm day on tap today before showers, possibly a few
  thunderstorms, return this afternoon and evening. Expecting
  temperatures to drop for Saturday behind the cold front.

- Low potential for a few scattered showers Sunday night south
  of I- 95. A secondary, sharp temperature drop is then expected
  for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...One last warm day on tap today before showers,
possibly a few thunderstorms, return this afternoon and evening.
Expecting temperatures to drop for Saturday behind the cold
front.

Already seeing quite a bit of clearing skies on the satellite
this morning; however, dewpoints remain in the 62 to 65 degree
range, only 1 or 2 degrees lower than the actual temperatures
around southern New England, and combined with mostly calm
winds... wouldn`t be surprised to see a little bit of patchy,
shallow fog to develop in some areas.

Expecting skies to stay mostly clear through the noon hour
today, perhaps into the early afternoon, before the cold front
starts to push into NW MA. Once the sun comes up, expecting to
see the surface temperatures rising rapidly, to near or just
above 80F, due to those 925mb temperatures hovering in the +20C
to +22C range.

The latest hi-res guidance is in good agreement that the cold
front, and the subsequent showers, should start to arrive around
3 to 4 PM and exit offshore around 10 PM to midnight tonight.
Given the high dewpoints, PWATs are also expected to surge to
near 2.0" (although the NAM is much more robust, in the
2.0"-2.25" range along the immediate frontal boundary), and the
low-level lapse rates remain on the steeper side, near 7C/km.
This leads to the potential for some localized heavy downpours
as the line of showers passes. While instability is on the lower
end with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, it doesn`t take much
this time of year to spark a few rumbles of thunder.

Behind the cold front, a rather strong continental high
pressure system will build over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario, sinking those +4C to +6C 850mb temperatures down into
New England and sharply dropping surface temperatures through
the weekend. Saturday`s highs are likely to be on the order of
10-15 degrees less than today`s with overnight temps dropping
into the low 40s (low 50s on the Cape and Islands).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low potential for a few scattered showers
Sunday night south of I-95. A secondary, sharp temperature drop
is then expected for the start of next week.

Still quite a bit of uncertainty on if showers will push far
enough north into southern New England Sunday evening. The
latest ECMWF and Canadian runs indicate some scattered showers
brushing across the Cape/Islands and immediate south coast while
the GFS shows widespread showers reaching all the way into
southern NH. Opted to keep low-end PoPs south of I-95 for now.

Regardless of the showers, a strong high pressure system is
expected to build in right on the heels of a deep Canadian low,
bringing a secondary shot of even colder air to New England for
the start of next work week. Latest guidance indicates the 530mb
line sinking possibly as far south as the Hartford-Providence-
Plymouth corridor, meaning 850mb temperatures could drop to near
or just below 0C by Tuesday morning. This would support surface
highs in mid 50s with nighttime lows possibly falling into the
30s through Wednesday.

The high then pushes east by Thursday, marking the return of
predominantly southwest flow and seasonable temperature to
southern New England for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today and tonight...High confidence in trends but moderate
confidence in timing.

VFR continues, but a cold front will be approaching between
18-00z and bring with it a risk for brief scattered showers,
possibly a rumble or two of thunder, but the exact timing is
still uncertain. A best estimate remains between 21-03z. SW
winds 7-15 knots with some gusts of 20-25 knots. Winds shift to
the NW tonight behind the cold front generally at 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR. N winds becoming NE generally at speeds of 10 knots or
less.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence
in timing. Most likely timing of showers nearing the terminal
would be in the 21z-00z timeframe, though there is potential to
see showers lingering through 02z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

A cold front approaches the southern New England coastal waters
this evening. Ahead of the front, southwest flow will bring
gusts of 20-25 knots across the southern nearshore waters,
including Cape Cod Bay, with marginal seas of 5-6 feet across
the southern outer waters. A few showers and an isolated
thunderstorm are possible with the frontal passage this evening.
High pressure briefly returns Saturday with tranquil boating
conditions.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn