024
FXUS61 KBOX 270626
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
226 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the time of the Small Craft Advisory
for the eastern waters to 18z today. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stretch of dry weather with cold nights continues
for the first part of the week. A moderating temperature trend
arrives later in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Stretch of dry weather with cold nights continues
for the first part of the week. A moderating temperature trend
arrives later in the week.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will dominate through the
upcoming week and weekend resulting in a prolonged stretch of dry
weather. Southern New England will be in a cooler post-frontal
airmass today with 925mb temperatures ranging +1C to +4C. This will
support high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Locations along
the Cape/Islands and even portions of the east coast may be limited
to the low 50s given the N/NNE onshore wind component. Even cooler
conditions arrive overnight with ideal radiational cooling. The
combination of mostly clear skies and boundary layer decoupling
allows lows to fall into the 30s across urban/coastal areas and the
lower to mid 20s further inland. Guidance even hints at lows
approaching either side of 20 degrees across areas of northern
Franklin and Worcester counties by Wednesday morning. Less cooling
may be realized further west as mid and high clouds filter in from
the west through the overnight.

The theme of dry and cooler weather continues Wednesday.
Temperatures trend slightly warmer as a mid level ridge shifts
further east into the region accompanied by warmer temperatures
aloft. The warming trend in temperatures continues into late-week
resulting in 925mb temperatures warming to +10 to +13C. This will
yield high temperatures in the mid-60s on Thursday which is
seasonably warm for this time of year. Despite the mid-level pattern
becoming more zonal Friday (ahead of our next weak wave), the
westerly flow will support efficient mixing in the boundary layer.
This will result in a breezy, but likely the warmest day of the week
with high temperatures in the upper 60s and even low 70s in portions
of southern New England. NBM highlights moderate to high
probabilities(60%-80%+) for 70F or greater across the valleys, CT,
and I-95 corridor. Therefore a larger portion of southern New
England, with the exception of the higher elevations and
Cape/Islands, will have a good shot at hitting the 70 degree mark on
Friday.

Another moisture-starved shortwave and cold front moves overnight
Friday. This will bring back temperatures into the low 60s for the
weekend which is seasonable for late-October. Looking further ahead
to the latter half of the weekend and next week, ensemble guidance
shows agreement with a transition to a generally unsettled pattern
which may feature periodic chances for showers. Confidence decreases
with respect to the details such as timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

6Z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight...High confidence.

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Gusts subside by 12Z for most terminals while Cape/Island
terminals will see lingering gusts through early afternoon.
Winds N/NNE at 7-14 kts.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Winds become light and variable under high pressure. KBOS
Terminal...High confidence.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday...High confidence.

A period of gusty winds between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around
25 kts across the eastern and southeastern waters continues
overnight into the early part of the morning. Gusts decrease to
less than 25 kts by 12Z today. Despite falling winds, seas will
remain elevated between 3 and 5 feet through the afternoon. As
a result, Small Craft Advisories in effect tonight into Tuesday
for the aforementioned waters. Opted to extend the Small Craft
Advisory through 18z this afternoon to reflect this. Tranquil
conditions arrive tonight and Wednesday with the center of high
pressure moving overhead.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mensch/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...FT