847
FXUS61 KBOX 231814
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast with isolated sprinkles or flurries through mid evening
as weak low pressure moves through northern New England, with
decreasing clouds overnight. Blustery but dry weather for
Monday, with increasing clouds for Monday evening. A warm front
will bring a period of rain from late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning, mild with a continued chance of showers Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and
blustery conditions follow behind the front for Thanksgiving
Day, then windy and cold weather for next Friday and Saturday.
More seasonable Sunday as high pressure moves offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Overcast with a flurry or sprinkle possible through mid-evening
  but nothing worse. Decreasing cloudiness after midnight except
  over the Cape and Islands.

Details:

Midlevel cloud canopy has overspread Southern New England, in
association with a fast-moving Clipper low centered over the St.
Lawrence River Valley in NW NY. Pretty favorable ascent with New
England being located in the poleward exit region of a midlevel
jetstreak - this jetstreak seen in WV imagery as the enhanced
dryslot seen racing thru eastern PA. However much of the returns
seen on regional radar mosaic have not amounted to much at all as
drier air below cloud base appears to be winning out. It also looks
like sustained precip will be tougher to come by in Southern New
England given the drier punch of air aloft and better (deeper)
saturation confined to interior northern New England. Wouldn`t rule
out a sprinkle or flurry at worst through early to mid evening as
low pressure moves through but that will likely be the worst of it
with considerable cloud cover to be the rule.

Decreasing cloud cover after midnight in most areas, though there
may be leftover ocean-enhanced cloudiness near the Cape and Islands
as winds become NWly with some marginal ocean-enhanced instability
as 925-850 mb thermal trough moves overhead. Early cloud cover and
then NW winds around 5-10 mph increasing toward the pre-dawn hrs
should lead to lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, with mid 30s
Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
100 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Blustery with dry weather Monday.

* Early lows Mon night, but temps rise before daybreak with
  increasing clouds.

Details:

Mostly clear with dry weather Mon, but will also see some blustery
northwest winds. More shallow mixing (mixing depths to around 900 mb
per BUFKIT profiles) should keep gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range
from mid-morning to early afternoon before subsiding by mid-
afternoon to sundown. Highs should top out in the 40s, with low 40s
terrain and mid/upper 40s lower elevations, coastal plain and the
cities.

Initial WNW winds then slacken early Mon night as sfc ridge of high
pressure moves offshore. Continued easterly translation of the high
to permit a moderately-strong warm advection regime to develop for
the second half of the night, with increasing SW winds 5-10 mph and
as well as an increasing coverage of mid to high clouds. This should
allow for early lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, then rise
into the 30s toward daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A period of widespread rain late Tue into Tue evening,
  tapering off late Tue night

* Rather mild with a chance of showers Wed into Wed evening

* Cooler and blustery Thursday, then windy and cold Fri & Sat.

* Seasonably cool Sunday with a low risk of showers

Tuesday into Wednesday...

Fast moving deamplifying shortwave lifts NE from the Gt Lakes Tue
passing to the north Tue night. High pres just offshore Tue will
provide dry weather through the morning with temps a bit above
normal as SW flow becomes established. Then increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a warm front will result in rain quickly overspreading
the region from W to E late Tue into Tue evening. Despite
deamplifying shortwave a 40-50 kt low level jet will advect PWATs
around an inch into SNE and enhance low level convergence, with
favorable right entrance region of upper jet so expect a period of
widespread rain Tue evening. It`s a quick moving system with a dry
slot moving into the region 06-12z so expect steady rain to end
before daybreak Wed, but could see rainfall 0.25-0.50".

Next robust shortwave will be lifting to the north Wed evening with
fairly strong cold front sweeping through the region 00-06z Thu.
There will be some showers around Wed as PWATs remain elevated but
not a washout. Best chance for a period of showers will likely be
late in the day and especially during the evening as the front moves
through. It will be rather mild Wed as temps will be rising into the
50s by daybreak, and 925 mb temps up to 10-12C. Probably not much
sunshine but if we do get a little sun, potential for highs to reach
into the lower 60s Wed.

Wednesday night into Sunday...

After frontal passage, expect clearing skies and it will become
blustery and turning sharply cooler late Wed night into Thu as
strong cold advection develops. Temps will fall from the 50s Wed
evening into the 30s and low 40s by daybreak Thu with only minor
recovery during the day Thu. Mostly dry Thu but can`t rule out a few
flurries in western MA as a shortwave and colder temps aloft
approaches from the west. Then windy and cold Fri into Sat with
temps several degrees below normal. Fri will be the windier day as
GFS soundings support gusts over 40 mph which is supported by
increasing NBM probs of 40+ mph, then less wind Sat as gradient
relaxes somewhat. There will be a risk of a few flurries or snow
showers Fri as upper trough axis and increased moisture moves
through, with more sunshine on Sat. Still looks mostly dry and
seasonably cool Sunday but moisture may be returning in developing
warm advection pattern as high pres moves offshore. Global ensembles
do show an increase in PoPs for measurable rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

Lowering ceilings but should be in the VFR range for the
majority of the time; thinking bases in the BKN/OVC 035-050
range with an outside chance at MVFR decks at worst. Left VCSH
in between 20-02z from west to east, but may end up bring
sprinkles or flurries with restrictions to visby not
anticipated. SW winds 5-10 kt, starting to shift to W late in
the western airports.

Tonight: High confidence.

OVC mainly VFR, outside chance at MVFR decks with flurries or
sprinkles thru 02z for the eastern terminals. Steady improvement
in ceilings after 02z with decreasing cloudiness (some lingering
ocean-enhanced cloudiness Cape and Islands) and NW winds around
8-12 kt.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kt, gusts to low 20s kt range but will
begin to decrease late in the day.

Monday Night: High confidence.

VFR, increasing covg of mid/high clouds after 06z. WNW/W winds
5-10 kt early continue to decrease but then shift to SW and
increase to 5-10 kt after 06z.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR;
spinkles/flurries possible after 00z Mon to 02/03z Mon but
little/no impact. Windshift to NW around 10-12 kt after
midnight.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday Night: High confidence.

SW to W winds and seas remain below SCA criterion through the rest
of the afternoon into early tonight. Outside chance at a sprinkle or
flurry early tonight but not enough to reduce visibility.

Added small craft advisories for the southern waters starting after
midnight into the first part of Monday as NW winds develop overnight
and become gusty in the 25-30 kt range. Seas increase into the 3-6
ft range, higher on the southern outer waters Mon. Winds and seas
then begin to decrease early Mon night, with winds becoming
southerly around 10-15 kt by Tue daybreak.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ232>235-237-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...KJC/Loconto