189
FXUS61 KBOX 171835
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
235 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure takes a hold of the weather pattern this weekend
bringing less wind and warmer afternoon temperatures. A Strong
Frontal system begins to approach the region on Sunday, bringing
gusty southerly winds with above-normal temperatures. The
frontal system arrives sometime Monday morning, bringing rain
and a chance for thunderstorms. The pattern remains unsettled as
we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon:

The core of the mid-level cool pool moves east of the area this
afternoon as surface high pressure builds in overhead. Initially
gusty winds will gradually relax throughout the afternoon as the
pressure gradient wanes. Elevated winds may persist a bit longer
into the afternoon on the Cape and Islands before winding down
this evening. Still expecting a mild day in the temperature
department with highs rising into the lower 60s for most of us
except closer to the coast where temps will likely fall just shy
of 60 degrees.

Overnight:

Surface ridge crests over New England tonight, bringing calm
winds and clear skies. The calm, clear conditions set the stage
for efficient radiational cooling overnight with just about
everyone dropping into the 30s. Coldest conditions will be found
in northern and central Mass where lows likely fall below
freezing. Slightly warmer temperatures for the Cape and Islands
and urban areas. As a result, have opted to blend in some cooler
guidance such as the CONSMOS to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Pleasant mid-October day on tap for Saturday as the mid-level
ridge axis moves overhead while the surface high pressure begins
to move offshore. Despite the retreating high, winds remain calm
during the day under 5mph. High temperatures warm slightly into
the mid to upper 60s as 850 mb temps warm to +8C. Skies will
start sunny, but mid-level moisture streaming behind the ridge
axis will bring mid to high-level clouds and filtered sunshine
to end the day. Slightly warmer Saturday night as mid and high
level clouds increase. Lows will be in the 40s for most areas,
with upper 30s possible across northern Massachusetts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry weekend with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun in
  valley locations
* Looking unsettled next week as multiple shortwaves move through
  the region.

Dry with slightly above normal temperatures Sunday. Then timing
questions remain with the passage of a cold front and secondary
low pressure some time Sunday night into Monday. The 17/12Z NAM
was on the more progressive end of the guidance. Given the
synoptic pattern of a high pressure to the east and a secondary
low pressure along this front, favored a slower timing that was
more in line with the 17/12Z GFS and CMC solutions. This keeps
most of Sunday dry, with showers arriving from west to east
after sunset. Expecting showers across most of our region by the
time of the Monday morning commute.

Beyond this time, the timing of showers remains uncertain. Most
of the 17/12Z guidance suite develops more of a mid level
cutoff, but cannot agree on where this cutoff will be. This
cutoff then appears like it will get kicked out over the
Atlantic by a more potent mid level trough midweek. This
pattern typically leads to a prolonged period of unsettled
weather. Looking like a trend toward below normal temperatures
next week with periods of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High Confidence.

VFR with pockets of MVFR lingering over the Cape and Islands for
the next few hours. Winds quickly diminish inland except near
the waters where they will gust to near 30 knots thru 22z.
Gusts expected to diminish for everyone this evening as strong winds
aloft start to move more offshore.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light NW winds around 5 kts or less for much of southern
New England; around 10 kts over the Cape and Islands. Exception
over ACK where wind gusts may take longer to cease based on the
latest forecast soundings; gusts around 20 kts remain possible
there this evening.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. Light and variable winds.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night...High confidence.

Winds and seas gradually decrease today as high pressure begins
to build in. Winds drop below 15 knots tonight but seas remain
elevated at 5-8 ft from ACK east. Winds remain light on Saturday
and seas gradually decrease to 3-6 feet.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough
seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-
     232-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-251-254-
     255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Belk/KP