216
FXUS61 KBOX 021820
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
220 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures and
tolerable levels of humidity is anticipated for most of the upcoming
workweek, to go along with coastal seabreezes. Our next chance for
rain may not materialize until next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Quiet and cool tonight

Dry and more comfortable conditions persist through the rest of
today into tonight as high pressure continues to build in from the
west. Radiational cooling expected tonight with light to calm winds
across the region and clear skies. Some patchy fog could develop
tonight in the areas known to radiate well (CT Valley, SE MA, parts
of NE MA). Lows expected to sink into the low 50s for some with the
rest of the region mainly below or just over 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* More seasonable temperatures make a return during the day

Clear skies with more seasonally normal temperatures in store for
Sunday as high pressure continues to dominate the pattern. Low level
temperatures (925 mb) settle around 20C and relative humidity values
aloft are expected to be low. Sea breezes along the coasts will keep
temperatures there slightly lower than the rest of the region. Highs
expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s along immediate
coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures for
  the first week of August.

* Highs mid 80s with lows mid 50s to low 60s, to go along with
  cooler seabreezes each day.

* Next chance of rain might hold off until as late as next Sunday.

Details:

Ensembles remain in fairly strong congruence on an extended stretch
of dry weather with seasonable temperatures for most of the upcoming
workweek. The governing feature driving this is a sprawling 1027-
1030 mb ridge of high pressure which builds southward from Quebec
through Tue, then settles over Nova Scotia through at least Fri.
Some of the global models show some hints at terrain-driven showers
or thundershowers in western/northwest MA toward Wed - Thu; but as
is usual for the coarser-res guidance at this range, the rather
broad QPF depiction shown in the GFS and ECMWF is probably overdone
to an extent. Will leave PoP at sub-mentionable levels for now for
Wed-Thu; wouldn`t rule out needing to introduce diurnally-driven
slight chance/isolated-PoP mention with later updates but vast
majority of the time is dry. In fact we may end up staying dry even
into next weekend - with Sunday offering a better, though still low,
chance at seeing showers/t-storms.

High temps in most of this period are generally in the mid 80s with
nighttime lows in the 50s to lower 60s with anticipated strong
radiational cooling each night. The above sea level pressure pattern
also favors several consecutive days of cooling seabreezes near the
coasts. Dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s to boot too, so humidity
levels should be tolerable. Overall a great stretch of weather on
tap as we enter the first week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of today...High confidence.

VFR. Light N/NE winds today, except E/SE with seabreezes
over coastal areas. Light SW winds after 00z.

Tonight...High confidence, though moderate for lower cigs from
BR.

Mainly VFR with scattered MVFR. Light and variable across the
interior terminals. Radiational fog may develop in SE MA, CT
Valley, the Vineyard, and in the Merrimack Valley around 09z
that may lower vsbys to MVFR.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. Light SW/WSW winds in the morning with sea breezes
developing for the afternoon at coastal terminals.

KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL terminal...Moderate confidence in BR development tonight.
Radiational fog possible tonight that may lower vsbys to MVFR.
Lower confidence in anything lower than that.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

High pressure continues to build over the waters through the
weekend. Sea breezes continue nearshore today before kicking back
out tonight after sunset. Light winds mainly S to SW tonight in
northern waters, mainly E/NE over the southern waters. Seas up to 3
ft.

Sunday...High confidence.

Winds pick back up in the afternoon with local seabreezes
nearshore, reaching up to 15 kts from the S in the northern
outer waters. Otherwise, generally lighter in the south with E
to SE winds from 5-10 kts. Seas up to 2 ft.

Sunday Night...High confidence.

Winds diminish as the night goes on, remaining S in the north and
becoming S to SE in the south. Seas 2-3 ft.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin