225
FXUS61 KBOX 022319
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
619 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore Monday. After a dry start, rain
develops during the afternoon and continues into the first half of
the night. A cold front passes through overnight, ending the rain
before sunrise on Tuesday and bringing a period of gusty winds. A
series of weak, quick moving systems move through the region Monday
night-Tuesday, late Wednesday- Thursday, and around next weekend
bringing a chance for showers and breezy winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, less breezy, and seasonably cool.

* Increasing clouds tonight, not as cold tomorrow morning.

Quiet conditions this afternoon as high pressure expands northward
into southern New England. Overnight, surface high pressure slides
south of New England, winds becoming light from the southwest to
south-southwest. Expect increasing cloud cover from south to north
tonight with increasing moisutre due to rising PWATs. Temperatures
come early tomorrow fall to the mid to lower 30s, upper 20s across
the higher terrain of northern Massachusetts. And at the coast, a
tad warmer in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry to start, soggy and dark for the evening commute.

* Rain ends overnight as a cold front sweeps through the region, but
  brings gusty northwest wind through Tuesday morning.

A dry start tomorrow morning with increasing cloud cover as high
pressure moves east of the coastal waters. No issues with the ride
into work or school, though the evening commute will be a bit wet and
dark now that sunset is around 4:30pm. Rainfall rates are light, but
pockets of moderate rain are possible. Convection-Allowing Models
(CAMs) suggest embedded downpours are possible, leading to isolated
heavier downpours. Flash flooding doesn`t appear to be a risk at
this time due the progressive nature of this system. Although areas
of ponding due to clogged storm drains remain the primary concern.
As the system moves out, will have strong cold air advection (CAA)
which will usher in a colder airmass and wind gusts.

Early on Monday a mid-level southern stream shortwave moves north
towards southern New England, while a mid-level trough and surface
low pressure system moves across eastern Canada. Southwesterly flow
increases PWATs between 0.8" to 1.0", plenty of moisture for periods
of rainfall. Southern stream shortwave energy kicks off showers by
the 18z/20z, as the northern stream mid-level shortwave and trough
approaches there is plenty of accent for widespread light rain. A
surface cold front does swing through late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning, clearing the rain out before sunrise on Tuesday.
Greatest rainfall, likely 0.25" to 0.50" falls along and east of the
I-95 corridor, while areas west generally receive 0.10".

This cold front brings gusty northwest flow due to CAA, 925mb wind
field are between 30 and 50 knots. Gusts overnight of 25 and 35 mph
are possible, higher gusts near the coast and for the higher terrain
of northwest Massachusetts could approach 40 mph. Have to monitor
the possibility for a Wind Advisory for Nantucket on Tuesday night
with probabilities of gusts over 45mph around 30%.

Temperatures, the afternoon is mild in the upper 50s to low 60s
due to the southwest flow. Overnight, not as cold due to the cold
front moving in later in the night, but lows should drop down into
the upper 30s and lower 40s. If the cold front were to come in a bit
sooner, these temperatures would need to be lowered.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Generally dry with periodic rain chances late Wed-Thu and again on
  Saturday.

* Generally seasonable temperatures expected with periods of gustier
  winds.

Tuesday looks to be quite dry, but blustery, with dewpoints dropping
into the low 30s and wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures
should be in the mid to upper 50s with plenty of sunshine as a high
passes through the Appalachians.

Next chance for showers looks to be Wednesday evening into Thursday
as a low moves east over the Great Lakes. Expecting this system to
move fairly quickly... bringing another round of gusty winds to
southern New England throughout Thursday and pushing showers out
to sea Thursday evening.

The start of the weekend looks relatively calm with another high
pressure system set to build to our west. Dry weather should prevail
with relatively seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 50s for
Friday; however, another round of unsettled weather is possible for
Saturday as a low pressure system moves across Quebec and the
Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR. WNW wind becomes light and turns to the WSW/SW by daybreak.

Monday... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR. SW to SSW winds 8 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 kts. Rain
possible after 20z, steadiest likely along the I-95 corridor into
the evening hours. Ceilings and visibilities drop to MVFR within any
areas of rain.

Monday Night... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Areas of rain and embedded heavier downpours possible. Mainly MVFR
with pockets of VFR. Rain moves off shore 06z-12z with improvement
to VFR conditions. Wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
from the WNW.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt.
Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Quiet weather Sunday, rain, gusty wind, and rough seas late Monday
  night into Tuesday.

Sunday through Monday Night... High confidence.

Area of high pressure builds across the southern waters through the
day, but will be short lived. Northwest wind and seas remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria through Monday. Increasing southwest
wind Monday afternoon through the overnight ahead of a next system,
this will bring rain, gusty wind and rough seas, especially late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Because of those conditions, issued a Gale Watch for the outer ocean
waters, while near shore water have a Small Craft Advisory starting
Monday night through Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ230>237-251.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/McMinn
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...BW/Dooley/McMinn
MARINE...Dooley/McMinn