464
FXUS61 KBOX 112354
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
654 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, blustery and much colder today, although a few
passing flurries or snow showers are possible, especially in
the Berkshires. Blustery weather and below normal temperatures
continue through the rest of this week into Saturday with
nothing more than a few brief passing rain/snow showers. A
frontal system may bring mostly rain next Sunday with drier
conditions Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Gusty winds continue into the evening before winding down
  after midnight

* Chilly with sub-freezing lows and wind chills in the 20s.

Flurries and snow showers continued to diminish for most this
evening. Still expected to linger a bit longer towards the
Berkshires. Otherwise, clearing skies with diminishing winds
overnight. Tweaked forecast for the next few hours to reflect
observed trends.

Previous Discussion...

Gusty winds from this afternoon persist through about midnight
before an upper-level trough axis and associated low-level jet
shifts east this evening and overnight. Until then, gusty
westerly winds from 25-35 mph will be possible, with gusts up to
45 mph possible over Nantucket where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect.

Roughly after midnight, a mid-level ridge building over The
Northeast will allow the pressure gradient to relax and westerly
winds to diminish. While the stronger 20-30 mph gusts will come
to an end, westerly winds will still be steady around 10 mph.
Thus, with mechanical mixing and continued mid-level cloud
cover, we`re not anticipating any significant radiational
cooling tonight. Nonetheless, the air mass still remains cooler
than normal and we can expect low temps near or below freezing
for most of southern New England. Steady winds will have the
"feels like" temperatures in the 20s for most of the region as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* A few rain/snow showers early followed by a slight uptick in
  temperatures

* Quiet weather tomorrow night with lows once again in the 30s

Weak short-wave energy may trigger a few rain showers over the
south coast, Cape, and Islands early tomorrow morning. Also
can`t rule out a few snow showers over The Berkshires and
Worcester Hills, but most locations will remain dry. Southwest
flow develops allowing modest low-level WAA tomorrow afternoon
which will support 925 hPa temps rising a few degrees from
Tuesday. This will result in high temperatures about 5 or 6
degrees higher than Tuesday. Cloudy skies early will give way
to partial sunshine in the afternoon with steady west winds.
Skies then scatter out tomorrow night as west/northwest flow
ushers in a drier air mass. Low temps once again in the low to
mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Chilly temperatures continue through the weekend

* A low pressure system will bring rain and possibly frozen
  precipitation to southern New England Saturday night through
  Sunday

Thursday through Saturday

Deep northwest flow will support persistent CAA over The
Northeast Thursday through Saturday morning. This will continue
to support below normal temperatures with daily highs/lows in
the mid 40s/ upper 20s-low 30s respectively. A dry column and
surface high pressure should support more sun than clouds during
this time frame.

Saturday night through early next week

By Saturday night, model guidance is revolving a robust pulse of
short-wave energy digging southeast over The Great Lakes and
across The Northeast. This is expected to bring substantial
precipitation to southern New England with 24 hour ensemble mean
precipitation forecast coming in around a half inch.
Additionally, many solutions support a setup that would involve
warm air aloft overrunning shallow sub-freezing air at the
surface. This may introduce some precipitation type issues to
the forecast where we some locations may be dealing with a
wintry mix. Details are vague at this time range, but this will
be something to watch closely as we approach the weekend. Strong
cold air advection behind this system will continue to support
below- normal temperatures as we head into early next week. Stay
tuned for further details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Clouds scatter out this evening. W gusts 25-35 kt this
evening, up to 40 kt at ACK, then gradually decreasing
overnight.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR cigs. A few showers possible over the Cape/Islands. SW wind
10-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt Cape/Islands.

Wednesday Night... High Confidence.

Mainly VFR with some patchy MVFR possible across interior MA.
Light westerly winds from 5 to 1 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

BKN cigs lifting to around 5k ft with an afternoon flurry
possible. W gusts to 25 kt this morning, with 35 kt gusts
possible this afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

VFR cigs with an afternoon flurry possible. W gusts to 25-30 kt
developing.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Gale force winds continue overnight before diminishing
  tomorrow morning

Gusty gale force westerly winds continue this afternoon and
evening over the coastal waters. Winds weaken below gale force
tomorrow morning, but Small Craft Advisory conditions persist
through tomorrow afternoon for most of the marine zones. Expect
faster improvement over the eastern waters where conditions
improve by early-mid afternoon. Seas over outer southern marine
zones remain elevated through tomorrow night with significant
wave heights between 6 and 8 feet.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/KJC/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...KJC/RM
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...KJC/RM