363
FXUS61 KBOX 120750
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
250 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and blustery conditions with below normal temperatures
expected through the rest of this week and into Saturday, with
nothing more than a few brief passing rain/snow showers. A frontal
system will bring mainly rain Saturday night into early Sunday,
drying out Sunday afternoon. Blustery and cool conditions will
follow Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* A few showers possible later this morning over Cape/Islands, with
  a chance of snow showers over the Berkshires and Worcester Hills

* Milder temps but still below normal

Another shortwave passage today with modest surge in moisture may
lead to a few showers over the Cape/Islands where PWATs increase to
around 0.50". Timing of any showers would be mid morning to early
afternoon. In addition, a few snow showers are possible this morning
over the higher terrain in northern MA ahead of this shortwave.
Otherwise, mainly dry conditions for rest of SNE with a period of
mainly cloudy skies this morning followed by some sunshine
developing in the afternoon. Low level temps moderate today with 925
mb temps reaching around 0C which will support highs into the mid-
upper 40s, cooler high terrain. A bit less wind today but soundings
show a well mixed boundary layer to support SW wind gusts to 20-25
mph and up to 30 mph over the Cape/Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry and chilly tonight
* Blustery and cool Thursday

Tonight...

One shortwave moves to the east while another shortwave within
active northern stream jet approaches from the Gt Lakes. Weak
subsidence between these two shortwaves will lead to mainly dry
conditions although can`t rule out a few snow showers in the
Berkshires. Variable amounts of clouds expected with modest W winds
which will preventing good radiational cooling. Lows will be mostly
in the 30s.

Thursday...

Mid level shortwave moving SE from the Gt Lakes will pass mostly
south of New Eng. It looks like a mostly dry day as PWATs are
decreasing, but shortwave will bring a pocket of colder temps aloft
in the afternoon with -32C at 500 mb. This will result in diurnal cu
increasing in coverage and can`t rule out a stray sprinkle or
flurry. Winds will pick up a bit with shortwave passage with NW
gusts to 25 mph. Not much change in thermal profile so expect highs
mid-upper 40s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and cool Fri and Sat

* A frontal system will bring a period of rain Sat night into early
  Sunday which may begin as some ice at the onset across northern MA

* Mainly dry and blustery early next week with continued below
  normal temps

Multiple shortwaves will be rotating south into New Eng maintaining
upper trough through the end of the week which will eventually slide
to the east on Sat with final shortwave passage. Other than a
passing flurry or light shower Fri it looks dry, then mostly sunny
day Sat as trough axis slides to the east. Temps will remain below
normal Fri and Sat.

Global guidance is indicating a fairly robust northern stream upper
trough/low diving SE across eastern Canada and into northern New Eng
Sat night into Sun. Progressive pattern with parent low approaching
from the Lakes and tracking to the north on Sun. Warm frontal
overrunning precip is expected Sat night with cold front passage
during Sun. The column is warming ahead of this system so mainly
rain is expected, but there could be some marginal low level cold
air to support brief icing at the onset Sat night across interior
northern MA. Rain may linger into Sun morning but trend will be for
drying conditions on Sun as cold front sweeps through. Timing of the
front is not certain which will determine when precip exits. Behind
the front, blustery conditions will develop into early next week
with below normal temps and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update...

Today...High confidence.

VFR cigs. A few showers possible over the Cape/Islands 14-18z.
SW wind 10-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt Cape/Islands.

Tonight...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR cigs with clouds scattering out overnight. West wind
5-10 kt, with gusts 15-20 kt at ACK.

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR. Increasing NW winds with gusts to 20-25 kt developing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
RA likely, chance FZRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories for all waters.

Gusts to 25-30 kt over the waters today as winds back to WSW,
then mainly W tonight with speeds decreasing below SCA over NE
MA waters. Winds remain gusty over southern waters tonight and
continue into Thu as winds become NW. Rough seas.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     236-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ232>235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC