764
FXUS61 KBOX 132000
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
300 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and windy conditions continue tonight through Friday
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A frontal system will bring
mainly rain Saturday night into early Sunday, drying out Sunday
afternoon. Windy and cool conditions follow Sunday night and
Monday then diminishing wind and continued dry weather into
midweek as high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Point

* Cool and windy with wind chill values in the low 20s

Upper-level trough and cold pool remain parked to the east, sending
several rounds of weak shortwave energy into the region.  The first
of those rounds moved through today, bringing some spotty showers
and sprinkles along with increased cloud cover.  Shower activity
will begin to wane overnight as mid-level dry air works. Cool and
breezy conditions continue overnight as the shortwave reinforces
CAA.  Overnight lows drop into the mid-to-upper 20s, but it will
feel like the upper teens to low 20s with 10-20mph winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Point

* Continued cool and windy conditions for Friday

There is little change in the weather pattern for Friday, with the
cold pool still located just offshore to the east.  Dry mid-level
air should keep skies at least partly sunny, but diurnal cumulus
will still form in the afternoon, despite the cold temperatures
aloft.  High temperatures will once again struggle to top the mid-
40s with gusty NW winds at 15-20mph.

One more piece of shortwave energy moves through Friday night, but
the loss of diurnal heating and continued mid-level dry air will
keep any light rain offshore. Winds begin to weaken inland
overnight, allowing overnight temperatures to drop to the low to mid-
20s away from urban areas and coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry start to Saturday, rain returns late Saturday evening with a
  few pockets of freezing rain possible at the onset.

* Breezy, showers, and seasonable Sunday.

* No significant weather on the horizon, daily chance for a light
  rain shower or flurry Monday through Wednesday, with below normal
  temperatures through the period.

Dry conditions Saturday (during the daylight hours) as transient
high pressure slides through New England. Our next system arrives
late Saturday afternoon or early evening as the weak mid-level ridge
flattens out with the approach of a 500mb closed low. There is still
uncertainty with exact arrival time of the mid-level shortwave and
developing low pressure system, though there is confidence we get
through the daylight hours dry. Arrival of the system coincides
with a modest low-level jet from the south and WAA, non-diurnal
trend in temperatures overnight and gusty southwest wind from the
925mb jet of 30 to 40 knots. But, at the onset there is cold air at
the ground level and antecedent surface temperatures might lead to
pockets of freezing rain, mainly areas AOA 1,500 feet in the
northern Berkshires. DESI probabilities show less than 10% chance of
0.01" of freezing rain. Otherwise, steady rain overnight. By Sunday
morning temperatures reach the upper 40s to 50F, exception are the
higher elevations where temperatures start off in the upper 30s.
Rain wraps up late Sunday morning to early afternoon, warm sector
brings seasonable temperatures despite cloud cover and periodic
afternoon showers.

Early to middle part of next week is dominated by a mid-level closed
low over northern New England and cyclonic flow. Weak shortwaves and
areas of low pressure pivot about, leading to daily hit-and-miss
showers (sprinkles or flurries) and diurnal cloud cover. As for
temperatures, trend calls for below normal daytime highs and
overnight lows during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z Update...

Rest of Today through Friday night...High confidence.

VFR with cloud bases around 040-050 this afternoon. Winds remain
NW around 10 knots gusting 20-25 knots through Friday afternoon
before become light Friday night. Low chance for a isolated
shower/sprinkle this afternoon esspically near the Cape and
Islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds at 20-25 knots

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds around 10 knots.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
RA, FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance
RA, slight chance SN.

Monday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday night

Light showers will continue through about midnight tonight before
slowing and waning Friday morning.  Winds remain gusty out of the NW
at 20-30 knots tonight through Friday, before subsiding slightly for
Friday night into the 10-20 knot range.  Seas in the southern waters
remain around 4-8 feet, while only 2-5 feet in the eastern
waters.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain.

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Rain likely.

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 15 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
14 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/KP
MARINE...Dooley/KP