809
FXUS61 KBOX 050555
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
155 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continue to refine summery temperatures and timing of
precipitation along with the risk for thunderstorms (some could
be severe) for this coming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm to hot temperatures continue today and
  Saturday with dry weather persisting.

- Increasing risk for showers and a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms Saturday evening. Sunday trends somewhat warmer
  with periods of showers and possible thundershowers.

- Dry and cooler conditions return early next week with onshore
  flow, before temperatures trend more summerlike by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably warm to hot temperatures continue today
and Saturday with dry weather persisting.

There are no notable changes to the near and short-term forecast
through the daylight hours of Saturday. Confidence remains high that
dry weather continues along with unseasonably warm to hot
temperatures. As advertised over the past several days, the primary
weather feature remains an area of high pressure centered across the
southeastern CONUS, which slowly shifts offshore this weekend ahead
of more unsettled conditions. Little has changed regarding
temperatures aloft, with 850 mb values remaining between +13C and
+15C Friday and increasing to +15C to +18C Saturday. Given a well-
mixed boundary layer reaching 850-800 mb, highs should climb well
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. While temperatures aloft are warmer
Saturday, increasing moisture and cloud cover may temper daytime
heating somewhat. Nevertheless, temperatures remain well above
normal for early June, when average highs are typically in the lower
70s. A more westerly wind today should allow coastal communities to
warm efficiently, while stronger southwest flow Saturday keeps
southern coastal areas somewhat cooler, generally in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Dewpoints remain comfortable today in the 50s but rise
into the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday, leading to a somewhat
muggier feel, though not overly oppressive.

For those heading to the beaches, there is a moderate risk for rip
currents Saturday along east-facing beaches of Cape Cod, ocean-
facing beaches of Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard, and south-facing
beaches from Point Judith, RI to Westport, MA. Always check with
lifeguards regarding local rip current conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing risk for showers and a few strong to
severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. Sunday trends somewhat warmer
with periods of showers and possible thundershowers.

Confidence continues to increase that most, if not all, of the
daylight hours Saturday remain dry, though a brief afternoon shower
cannot be ruled out north and west of the I-91 corridor, likely
associated with a prefrontal trough. Increasing heat and humidity
will lead to a moderately unstable atmosphere, with CAPE values
between 500-1000 J/kg, though some guidance suggests locally higher
values approaching 1500 J/kg. This should support convective
initiation by late afternoon, though activity may hold together
after sunset given modest mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km.
The better wind shear arrives Saturday evening, with 0-6 km bulk
shear increasing to around 30-40 kt. Given this setup, a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms has been introduced for southern New
England, with the primary threats being strong to damaging straight-
line winds and locally heavy downpours as PWAT values climb to
around 1.8 inches. CAM guidance is beginning to resolve this
timeframe, though refinement in storm timing and placement is still
expected.

By Sunday morning, weak subsidence behind the front may allow for
drier, albeit humid, conditions with a mix of clouds and sunshine.
By afternoon, a more defined mid-level trough and associated
shortwave energy move across southern New England, though recent
guidance trends the surface low farther north into the Gulf of
Maine. As a result, rainfall appears more showery and less
widespread, with the greatest concentration of showers and general
thunder across eastern portions of southern New England. Cooler air
arrives more gradually, which may allow highs to still reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s before northeast flow develops later in the
day.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry and cooler conditions return early next week
with onshore flow, before temperatures trend more summerlike by
midweek.

Conditions trend drier and cooler Monday, though some uncertainty
remains regarding how quickly lingering troughing departs, which
will influence temperatures and cloud cover. For now, expect cooler
conditions Monday with a warming trend returning Tuesday into the
middle of next week as temperatures return into the 80s. High
pressure appears likely to return by Tuesday, supporting mainly dry
weather through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight...High confidence.

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Westerly winds around 5-
10 kt dominate through much of Friday. Sea breezes develop along the
eastern MA coast around 15Z, followed by a transition to an
offshore/SW flow by around 00Z Saturday. Winds Friday night veer to
WSW/SW around 5-10 kt.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue. A late-day shower or thunderstorm is
possible, mainly after 00Z. Southwest winds increase to 10-15 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt.

KBOS...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...High confidence.

Today, winds remain similar to Thursdays setup, though generally
expected to remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria across
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound. Across the
remaining waters, winds up to 20 kt are possible through this
evening, then all waters should remain at or below 15 kt on Friday
and Friday night. Seas generally hold in the 2-4 ft range through
Friday night.

On Saturday, southwest winds increase with gusts approaching 25 kt
and seas building to 3-5 ft by early afternoon. It is becoming more
likely that Small Craft Advisory conditions will be needed Saturday
afternoon into the weekend as these conditions develop.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Dooley