570
FXUS61 KBOX 152327
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues for the start of the week as the maritime
high pressure`s influence prevails. Temperatures remain
slightly cooler Monday as a result. Cooler weather lingers into
Tuesday, followed by a warming trend, with heat and humidity
peaking Thursday, highs 85-90. Mainly dry weather next week,
except Thursday, with the risk of thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front. Turning seasonable with drier conditions
Friday and potentially into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and cool tonight

* Patchy fog develops over parts of E MA and N RI

A weak shortwave will pass over the region tonight, but rain
chances are expected to remain to our south. Another dry night
expected for southern New England, except for some patchy fog
possibly developing in some parts of eastern MA and northern RI.
The maritime high`s influence continues, keeping winds light
and generally east to ESE over the region overnight. Lows
expected to be cool once again, primarily sitting in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and a little warmer for Monday

Highs begin to recover a bit Monday, but the cooler airmass
aloft will keep temperatures still a bit lower than normal for
mid June. Deterministic guidance has 925 mb temperatures
slightly increasing to around 15C, especially over the interior.
Continued easterly winds will keep the eastern coastal areas
cooler again, but highs may still reach the upper 60s/low 70s.
Mid to upper 70s can be expected for the interior.

Monday night looks to be another quiet night, with winds
shifting more southeasterly. Overnight lows will be on the same
trend... low to mid 50s across southern New England. A chance
some patchy fog could develop across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Seasonably cool temperatures on Tuesday, but a significant
  warm up is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. Less hot
  Friday into the upcoming weekend.

* Outside of a few hit-or-miss showers on Tuesday and Wednesday,
  the next notable chance for rain will come sometime Thursday
  afternoon or evening with a robust cold front. Which could
  bring severe weather across the region.

* Seasonable and looking somewhat dry for next weekend.

One last cooler than normal day is anticipated on Tuesday,
followed by summer warmth and humidity Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday will be the hottest day this week, 850mb warm to +18C
to +20C! Mixing of the boundary layer wilds afternoon highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. In addition, dewpoint temperatures
are elevated due southwest flow, not out of the question those
exceed 70F. When dewpoints get above 70F this becomes "air you
can wear". These conditions will help to fuel storms Thursday
afternoon associated with a cold front. The cold front will
knock down the heat and humidity Friday through the upcoming
weekend, but should remain seasonable both Friday and Saturday
with highs on either side of 80F. Sunday should begin the next
warm up with highs inching back into the middle 80s. And there
are signs the heat returns and stays longer well into the
following week as global ensembles show modest probabilites for
90F.

As for rain chances, Tuesday and Wednesday, there are lower
risks of shower activity, but majority of the time looks dry.
Late the week zonal flow becomes ridged in the west and trough
in the east. A cold front approaches New England Thursday
afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
While we are looking five days out there is already an area
highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe
storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance
has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including
mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35
knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region
with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive
this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.
Friday into the upcoming weekend does look more dry, with
potential shower activity on Sunday. But given this is a week
out there is plenty of time for things to change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight...Moderate Confidence in timing.

VFR dropping to IFR this evening, except remaining VFR/MVFR at
BDL and BAF. Vsby reductions likely across eastern MA terminals
around 04z. Light ESE winds. Otherwise dry conditions expected.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR improving to VFR through the morning. Light ENE winds
veering ESE.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Light SSE winds becoming E along the South Coast, Cape and
Islands.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in IFR timing.

Lower confidence in timing for vsby reductions tonight.
Otherwise, high confidence for rest of TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
TSRA.

Friday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday Night...

Seas continue hover around 2-4 ft with ENE winds around 15 kts.
These calmer seas are expected to continue through Monday.
Winds remain below 10 kts over the eastern waters. Winds pick
back up during the day Monday with sustained winds up to 15 kts
possible once more.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5
ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/McMinn
NEAR TERM...KJC/McMinn
SHORT TERM...KJC/McMinn
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC/McMinn
MARINE...KJC/McMinn