834
FXUS61 KBOX 021728
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1228 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with a light breeze expected today as high
pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will lean slightly
below normal. Slightly warmer temperatures for Monday with
scattered showers arriving mid-late afternoon. A series of
weak, quick moving systems move through the region Monday night-
Tuesday, late Wednesday- Thursday, and around next weekend
bringing a chance for showers and breezy winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, less breezy, and seasonably cool.

Surface high pressure expands northward into the region with
WNW winds, supporting a dry and mainly sunny day today. The
trend of weakening winds continues today as the pressure
gradient continues to slacken this morning. Model soundings
indicate some mixing in the boundary layer through mid-afternoon
and with 925mb winds 20-30 kts, this may support a few
occasional gusts up to 20-25 mph. Temperatures aloft lean
slightly below normal supporting highs in the low to mid-50s
today, with upper 40s possible in spots of the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Approaching frontal system brings increasing clouds with
  scattered showers arriving mid-late afternoon.

Tonight:

The surface high pressure center moves south and east of New
England overnight with winds becoming light SW. Overnight
temperatures fall into the 30s and low 40s, with upper 20s
across the higher terrain of northern Massachusetts.

Monday:

High pressure fully moves offshore on Monday with a mid-level
trough approaching from the west. SW flow ahead of the trough,
will help advect in plume of higher moisture into the afternoon.
Increasing moisture from the south will result in increasing
clouds through the day. A trough and front system will support
some weak ascent to support scattered showers developing later
in the afternoon, continuing through the afternoon. Weak WAA
will boost temperatures a few degrees up from Sunday with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry weather interrupted by periodic rain chances first Monday
  night, then Wednesday night into Thursday, then sometime around
  Saturday.

* Periodically breezy, especially on Tuesday.

* Generally seasonable temperatures with highs in the 50s.

Overall the synoptic pattern next week features a series of high and
low pressures moving from west to east through the region. This will
result in dry weather interrupted periodically by rain showers as
each trough and associated frontal system moves through. The first
of these frontal passages occurs Monday night bringing with it
widespread, quick hitting showers followed by drier air Tuesday as
dewpoints drop from the 40s into the 20s/30s. Those higher dewpoints
make a resurgence by later Wednesday before another front drops them
back into the 20s/30s on Thursday once again accompanied by
widespread rain showers overnight into Thursday.

Finally, high pressure ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shortwave around Saturday with the potential for more
unsettled weather. Each of these frontal passages brings with them a
period of breezy winds as the pressure gradient tightens with the
passage of the low; at this time is looks as if the strongest low
level jet accompanies the late week/early weekend system, but it is
much too soon to hone in on specific details at this point. For the
first system on Monday night into Tuesday, the post frontal airmass
Tuesday will feature NW winds and mid level cold advection helping
to mix down a robust 45-55 kt 850 mb LLJ. This should result in wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph for many locations. Temperatures remain right
around normal for early November with highs in the 50s throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated: 18z

Rest of Today... High confidence.

VFR. W to WNW wind 8 to 12 knots, isolated gusts of 20 knots are
possible through sunset, though shouldn`t be frequent.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR. WNW wind becomes light and turns to the WSW/SW by daybreak.

Monday... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR. SW to SSW winds 8 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 kts. Rain
possible after 20z, steadiest likely along the I-95 corridor into
the evening hours. Ceilings and visibilities drop to MVFR within any
areas of rain.

Monday Night... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Areas of rain and embedded heavier downpours possible. Mainly MVFR
with pockets of VFR. Rain moves off shore 06z-12z with improvement
to VFR conditions. Wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
from the WNW.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Sunday through Monday:

Winds have dropped below 25 kts this morning with seas 5 ft or
less and continuing to decrease as high pressure builds in. The
remaining SCA for the outer waters will be allowed to expire at
7 AM this morning. For the rest of the day, WNW gusts are below
25 knots and seas are 3 to 4 feet. Sunday night gusts subside
to less than 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet.

High pressure moves offshore by Monday with winds/seas
increasing in the afternoon. SW winds with gusts 20-25 kts and
seas 2-4 feet. Showers arrive later in afternoon.


Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...BW/Mensch