745
FXUS61 KBOX 101743
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast conditions with above normal temperatures today. A
cold front will bring a period of rain showers today, then
decreasing clouds later in the day. Sharply falling temperatures
tonight, with the first taste of winterlike temperatures
settling in tonight and into Tuesday. Wind chills on Tuesday
could be as low as the upper teens to the 20s on gusty northwest
winds. Slight improvements in temperatures Wednesday as a
shortwave rotates through the area. Cooler weather with
continued troughing through the end of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Foggy, misty overcast this morning; overcast much of today
  but some decrease in clouds late.

* Light rain showers with cold front passage mid morning to mid
  afternoon from west to east. Additional spotty precip in the Berks
  could be cold enough for brief snowflakes late this afternoon.

* Current temps upper 40s to upper 50s are today`s highs, with
  not much net change in temps, but will be falling by sundown
  in the Berkshires.

Details:

By mid-November standards, it`s an anomalously mild early morning
across Southern New England, as a subtropical feed of moisture is
being advected northward in deep SSW flow aloft across the
Northeast. This is ahead of an impressive upper level low centered
in the vicinity of Chicago, associated with an early-season outbreak
of winter-like air which extends into the Deep South! Current temps
in Southern New England are in the 50s, with some upper 50s/near 60
in southeast New England. By comparison, as of this AFD, Atlanta GA
is 40 degrees with a NW wind gusting to 35 knots. We are also
socked in with low-level moisture trapped beneath a dry punch of
air in midlevels, and is contributing pretty widespread mist,
fog and at times some areas of drizzle. We`ve issued an SPS for
foggy conditions through 5 AM to address any travel
difficulties, as reduced visbys (generally half to 4 miles, but
could be as low as quarter mile in spots) are likely to persist
into part of the morning.

Looking likely we`ll remain in this dreary overcast for some
time today. But a strong cold front is right on our doorstep,
producing a shield of light to moderate rain showers from the
Hudson Valley on southward into NJ. Some improvement to visbys
is expected as the front and rain showers overspread; it`s a
messy frontal passage, but a best estimate on arrival of rain
showers is around 4-7 AM in far western New England and the
Berkshires, around 10-noontime in central MA, into eastern MA
and RI around noon to 2 PM and making it offshore by sundown.
Should see cloud cover then start to scatter and lift but
today`s a generally mostly cloudy to overcast day. There may be
additional light precip behind the cold front in interior
western New England into the afternoon, which could include some
backside light snow showers later in the day into the western
hilltowns of the Berkshires but these would be more
novel/decorative than causing impacts as the colder air starts
to work its way in.

After the cold front moves through, the truly cold air will only
gradually ooze in. Highs for the day have already occurred or are
occurring, but temperatures most of today won`t really change all
that much, until we get to late this afternoon in the Berkshires. So
we should see temperatures today in the 50s. But the bottom will be
falling out with the temperatures after sundown in all areas, with
the first real taste of winter-like temperatures arriving tonight
and especially Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Winterlike temps arrive tonight: upper 30s to low-mid 50s
  early tonight crash to widespread subfreezing readings by
  dawn.

* Partly cloudy Tue, but with below normal temps and gusty NW winds
  producing a biting cold. Highs in the 30s (sub-freezing highs in
  the terrain), but will feel like the mid teens to the 20s in most
  areas, with NW gusts 30-40 mph.

* Intervals of snow showers in the terrain Tue afternoon, but nil
  accumulation.

Details:

Tonight:

Surge of strong low-level cold advection takes place tonight, to go
along with rapid drying and increasing WNW winds. 925 mb temps start
out around -2 to 0C in the Berkshires, and around +2 to +10C
elsewhere, warmer east. By morning, 925 mb temps in all areas are in
the -5 to -7C range. Starting tonight in the mid 30s in the
Berkshires to the 40s central sections to lower 50s near the
coast. By midnight, much of the interior will be in the mid 20s
to around freezing, and turns to widespread subfreezing temps to
the coast by dawn.

Westerly winds will accompany this surge in colder air, and we
should see wind chills between 4 and 7 AM in the mid to upper teens
in the terrain, and the low to mid 20s for the lower elevations and
coastal plain, and around freezing for the Cape and Islands.

Tuesday / Veterans Day:

The cold upper trough gradually lifts out toward the ENE
through the day. This will allow for an enhanced westerly flow
with partly to mostly cloudy skies (more clouds toward the west
due to advection of Great Lakes-enhanced moisture). The
anomalously cold air will steepen lapse rates considerably, with
potential for mixing depths up to 800 mb.

The net result for Tue is anomalously cold daytime temperatures
with gusty northwest winds making for a biting cold. Ambient
air temps only rise a few degrees, with ineffective warming
from partial sun offset by the cold air, leading to high temps
in the upper 20s/around freezing for the terrain, and the mid to
upper 30s for most of Southern New England (around 40 near the
south coast, Cape and Islands). Mixed-layer speeds at the top
of the deep boundary layer are as high as 45 kt, so gusts in the
30 to 40 mph range are conceivable with sustained west winds
around 15-20 mph. Wind chills in most areas are in the 20s, with
mid to upper teens in the terrain! Add a couple layers for this
winterlike chill if you`re headed outside.

Weak lift in a saturated dendrite growth layer out in the
Berkshires and into the MA portion of CT Valley Tue aftn could
result in periodic, unfocused snow showers, given Froude
numbers around 1 to 2 favoring unblocked terrain flow. But even
with the cold air, pavement temps are still too warm for any
impacts, so more likely to be decorative at worst.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Cold and blustery Tuesday night.

* A few rain and elevation snow showers possible Wednesday.

* Increasingly dry with a moderating trend in temps through the
  late week period.

Another cold night Tuesday night for much of the CWA. Lows will
moderate compared to Monday night owing to a well mixed boundary
layer and increasing mid and high clouds. Temperatures Tuesday night
fall into the upper 20s in the terrain and the middle to lower 30s
for other areas.

Recent runs of CAMs have come in quite a bit more amplified with a
shortwave rotating through the region on Wednesday. The result
should be greater coverage of precipitation and cloud cover for much
of the day. Expecting a warmer day as the flow becomes southerly.
Highs will likely climb to near 50 near the coast but may be quite a
struggle to get out of the 30s in the higher terrain. Elevated areas
may see snow scattered showers through Wednesday afternoon with
plenty of moisture and forcing.

We`ll feel the influence of a lingering trough over the northeast
through the rest of the workweek keeping temperatures cooler than
average generally in the upper 40s. A few weak disturbances round
the trough leading mainly to some orographic rain/snow showers and
ocean effect showers offshore, but the column remains largely dry
which should prevent any widespread precipitation for the week and
into the weekend as a brief ridge approaches around the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Rest of Today...Moderate confidence.

Rain showers are currently moving through much of
eastern/central MA and RI with some stronger showers with a
rumble of thunder out over the waters south of Martha`s
Vineyard. IFR with LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail for
most terminals until after 00z. Winds through the rest of the
day remain light and vary between N and NE for most, except for
the Islands where S to SW winds continue.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. W winds increase and become around 12-15 kt, gusts 20-25
kt, stronger near daybreak.

Tuesday...High confidence.

SCT-BKN VFR ceilings; periodic afternoon -SHSN (4 SM visby)
could affect BAF. W winds 15-25 kt gusts 30-35 kt, near 40 kt
for ORH.

Tuesday night...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty W winds up to 35 kt continue through the overnight
period, though they should decrease slightly as the night goes
on. Some scattered -SHSN remain possible for the Berkshires.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Higher confidence in ceilings remaining IFR through the rest of
today before the frontal passage tonight, which should usher in
VFR quite rapidly. Winds light N to NNE until then.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Some hit-or-miss showers remain possible through the rest of
the day today until just after 01z tonight.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* SCAs still valid thru 12z Tue, but these are for seas in the
  5-7 ft range which will be slow to subside.

* Foggy conditions especially this morning reduce visby, with
  periods of rain by mid-morning, clearing late afternoon.

* Gale force westerly gusts on all waters Tue into part of Wed.
  Gale Warnings in effect for Tue into early Wed.

Seas are still elevated this morning and will only slowly
subside through tonight. Therefore SCAs were extended through
Monday night. Light winds this morning to gradually become W
with an increase in speeds to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20 kt
late this afternoon and tonight, as a cold front crosses the
waters.

An anomalously cold airmass over the waters with a strong WNW
pressure gradient will allow for gale force gusts to then
develop by Tuesday and linger into at least part of the first
half of Wednesday. Given high confidence, Gale Watches have
been converted to Gale Warnings on all waters for this Tue- Wed
period. Gusts 35-40 kt are expected with seas building to around
12-14 ft over the offshore waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft.

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 13 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance
of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/FT
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Loconto/FT