167
FXUS61 KBOX 022005
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
305 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with anomalous warmth continuing into mid-week. Daily high  in
the upper 60s to low 70s, with isolated readings into the  mid-70s
flirting with daily records.

- Unsettled weather with continued warmer temperatures expected
  later this week heading into the weekend, which would feature
  periodic chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with anomalous warmth continuing into mid-week.
Daily high  in the upper 60s to low 70s, with isolated readings into
the  mid-70s flirting with daily records.

A persistence forecast for southern New England over the next
several days a the east coast mid level ridge remains overhead, the
ridge axis not passing until late Wednesday. Beneath that ridge
we`ll continue to enjoy an anomalously warm airmass with 925 mb
temperatures sitting in the 11-14C range through the end of the
week. Combined with an unusually extended period of dry weather and
dry antecedent conditions we`ll continue to see afternoon high
temperatures overachieve most guidance sources, reaching well into
the 70s through at least Thursday. Persistent S/SW flow will also
push dewpoints up through the week leading to a warmer floor for low
temperatures, only dropping into the 50s by Thursday morning, closer
to 60 by Friday morning. This pattern will put close to record
warmth territory for some, and regardless a stretch of low to mid
70s in November is not the norm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather with continued warmer
temperatures expected later this week heading into the weekend,
which would feature periodic chances for rain.

A thermal ridge is expected to continue building over southern New
England towards the midweek timeframe, which will be supportive of
above-normal temperatures continuing for Wednesday and Thursday this
week. 925 mb temperatures between 12-16C along with SW to S flow
will bring the possibility of highs in the upper 60s into the
low/mid 70s across southern New England Wednesday and Thursday.
Ensembles have quite high probabilities of highs exceeding 70F
Wednesday afternoon, and these remain somewhat elevated (up to 90%
in southern parts of the coastal plain) for Thursday afternoon as
well. Guidance doesn`t indicate much with regards to a return to
more mild temperatures until the second half of the weekend as the
ridging shifts off to the east, but that could vary depending on how
the approaching system evolves and tracks across the region.

Ensembles have continued to show a consensus with regards to the
return of more unsettled weather for the second half of this week. A
mid to upper level trough is expected to move in from the west,
which will help advect in an anomalous moisture plume around 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal over southern New England. Closer
to the surface, a frontal system associated with a previously more
developed low pressure is expected to track across the region,
bringing good chances for wetting rains towards the end of the week.
Exact timing is still a bit uncertain, but latest guidance is
leaning towards onset being Thursday evening at the earliest in
western MA and CT, then tracking eastward through Friday. Showers
may even linger into Sunday for parts of the region. Ensemble
probabilities with regards to totals have not changed much from the
overnight forecast, with probabilities for 24-hr totals >= 0.5"
(period ending Saturday morning) generally between 30-70% across
ensemble suites. Notably, though, the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles
distribute these probabilities across the majority of southern New
England as the front tracks from west to east, while the GEFS has a
more focused footprint of higher probabilities and totals over Cape
Cod and some of the coastal plain in SE MA. Given the spread in
guidance, there is still decent uncertainty regarding the
progression and development of the surface features that would
really enhance rainfall totals and even introduce the chance for
some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions will continue through the middle of the week
with some mid-high level cloudiness at times. Winds will
generally average from the SW at 5 to 15 knots during the
afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas
MVFR possible. RA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday...High confidence.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below
small craft advisory thresholds through the middle of the week.
Nonetheless...we may have some SW wind gusts of 20+ knots at times
particularly nearshore during the afternoons. This may result in
some choppy seas at times...but thinking we should remain below the
need for headlines. Greatest chance of 20+ knot winds is this
afternoon across the SE waters.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain
likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft.
Rain likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain
likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/Hrencecin
AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin
MARINE...BW/Hrencecin