243
FXUS61 KBOX 130734
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
234 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather with below normal temperatures expected through
Saturday. A frontal system will bring mainly rain Saturday night
into early Sunday, drying out Sunday afternoon. Windy and cool
conditions follow Sunday night and Monday then diminishing wind and
continued dry weather into midweek as high pressure builds in from
the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

* A brief shower is possible today, otherwise mainly dry and cool

A weak shortwave approaching from the west is generating a few
showers across upstate NY which may spill into western MA through
the morning. Otherwise, a more potent shortwave will dive SE from
the Gt Lakes and pass mostly west and south of New Eng today. The
shortwave will be accompanied by cooling temps aloft with 500 mb
temps dropping to -30 to -32C this afternoon. Any sunshine to start
the day will quickly give way to mainly cloudy skies as diurnal cu
expands across the region. Moisture is limited but the cold pool
aloft may generate an isolated sprinkle or shower this afternoon.
Best chance of showers will likely be confined to the south coast
and Cape/Islands closest to the track of the shortwave. Highs will
reach upper 40s across much of SNE, cooler higher terrain. The
boundary layer is decently mixed but relatively shallow and supports
W-NW wind gusts to 20-25 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Clearing and cold tonight
* Dry and cooler Friday

Tonight...

The shortwave moves to the east this evening and subsidence behind
it will result in clearing skies for much of the region. Exception
will be across the outer Cape where ocean effect clouds are expected
to develop with perhaps an isolated shower. Modest NW breezes will
limit radiational cooling, but still a cold night with lows dropping
into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Friday...

SNE will be in between shortwaves and dry air in the column will
bring mostly sunny skies, but ocean effect clouds will likely linger
over the outer Cape. Yet another shortwave rotating around the upper
low to the NE will dive southward through New Eng later in the
afternoon and evening with diurnal cu increasing during the
afternoon. Temps will be a bit cooler as slight cooling noted at
925/850 mb. Highs will be mostly in the mid 40s with NW winds 10-20
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and cool Sat

* A frontal system will bring a period of rain Sat night into early
  Sunday which may begin as a brief period of freezing rain at the
  onset across higher elevations in northern MA

* Drying out by Sunday afternoon and becoming blustery

* Mainly dry Mon through Wed. Windy Mon with diminishing wind Tue &
  Wed

Last of the shortwaves will eventually move east of New Eng Fri
night with ridging moving in for Sat which will bring sunshine and
lighter winds but below normal temps.

Progressive pattern with next northern stream system moving in Sat
night into Sun. Warm frontal overrunning precip is expected to
overspread SNE Sat night. Ptype mainly rain as the column is
warming, but surface temps may be near freezing at the precip onset
over the Berkshires and Worcester Hills where brief freezing rain
possible. But impacts should be minimal as any icing should be
localized and brief. Cold front will be moving through SNE Sun
morning and high confidence in improving trend after the fropa but
exact timing is uncertain. Gusty post-frontal winds develop, most
likely in the afternoon, and highs should reach the 50s in the
coastal plain.

Windy and turning colder Sun night and Mon. Winds will diminish Tue
and especially Wed as high pres builds in from the west. Below
normal temps through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. BKN cigs around 5k ft developing today,
clearing tonight then diurnal cu developing again Fri. Areas of
MVFR cigs from ocean effect clouds may develop over the outer
Cape tonight into Fri. W-WNW wind 10-20 kt today. NW 5-15 kt
tonight with gusts to 20-25 kt over the Cape/Islands. NW wind
10-20 kt Fri.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA,
chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance
SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Shortwave passage will bring another surge of wind with W-NW gusts
to 25-30 kt developing over open waters this afternoon into this
evening. SCA in effect for all waters except Boston Harbor and
Narragansett Bay. Winds gradually drop off late tonight into Fri but
still NW around 20 kt.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Rain likely.

Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 15 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC