937
FXUS61 KBOX 292346
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
746 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region will bring showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Some storms could produce
small hail, gusty winds, and brief downpours. A stretch of dry
and early fall like weather will prevail through much of next
week as high pressure remains over the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Updated 740 PM Fri:

Key Messages:

* Line of showers and storms will impact Cape and Islands
  through 10 pm with locally heavy downpours

* Additional scattered showers and isolated t-storm possible
  across eastern MA and northern RI this evening

Main convective activity this evening is focused along the SE
coastal MA where best instability with CAPES up to 500 J/kg.
Line of convection with thunder and locally heavy downpours will
move across Cape Cod and Islands during next few hours. Another
line of showers along the cold front is moving through central
MA and northern CT. Less instability here so thunder threat is
less but can`t rule out an isolated storm as this activity moves
east across portions of RI and eastern MA this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Updated 100 PM Fri:

Key Messages:

* Dry and cooler to start the weekend.

Upper low meandering through northern New England will maintain
cyclonic flow across region Sat, which will lead to diurnal
cloudiness and perhaps a few sprinkles, mainly across northern
MA which is in closer proximity to cold pool aloft. Definitely a
taste of fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Updated 100 PM Fri:

Key Messages:

* Stretch of dry weather much of next week.

Ensemble guidance continues to favor dry conditions through at
least Thursday, before an approaching cold front brings
scattered showers sometime Thursday night or Friday, which is
our next chance of seeing any appreciable rainfall. Overall,
dry and seasonable weather will prevail with sea breezes likely
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update: High confidence in trends.

T-storms will impact Cape Cod terminals through 02z with heavy
downpours and lower cigs/vsbys. Another line of scattered
showers and possibly an isolated t-storm may impact ORH-BED-
BOS through 03z.

Otherwise, VFR through Sat night. Probably will see VFR ceilings
060-080 Sat as diurnal clouds develop and perhaps a few
sprinkles mainly in northern MA.

KBOS TAF...Brief shower possible 01-03z with low risk for
thunder. Moderate confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Updated 100 PM Fri:

High confidence through much of next week. No marine headlines
expected with winds and seas staying below SCA.

Approaching cold front brings scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially to E MA waters and immediate south
coastal waters, through this evening. Some storms could produce
wind gusts of 30-40kt and small hail, so anticipate that we may
be issuing Special Marine Warnings, especially given increased
boating traffic for start of holiday weekend.

Front moves offshore tonight, followed by an extended stretch of
dry weather as high pressure builds over Northeast. May see some
increase in seas on outer south coastal waters as we approach
the middle of next week.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...JWD