264
FXUS61 KBOX 020543
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
143 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry stretch of weather today through the end of the
  work week.

- Potentially unsettled and cooler conditions this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiet and dry stretch of weather today through the
end of the work week.

Fairly high confidence in dry weather this week as surface high
pressure and mid-level ridging develop across the Northeast. Right
on cue following a cool and damp weekend, warmer and drier weather
returns to southern New England. There have not been any wholesale
changes to the forecast, as we continue to anticipate a period of
dry and warmer weather today through the end of the work week.

Today, the mid-level trough and shortwave push east. While PWATs are
quite low, the combination of modest mid-level lift, a cold pool
aloft, and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE suggests a brief and very
isolated pop-up shower cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, expect
diurnal cloud development this afternoon due to daytime heating and
deep boundary layer mixing. With 850 mb temperatures around +8C,
highs should reach the lower to middle 70s.

Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure develop Wednesday
through Friday, with increasing 850 mb temperatures between +13C and
+15C Thursday and Friday. While these temperatures alone would
support highs in the lower to middle 80s, west-northwest flow aloft
descending from the higher terrain of western Massachusetts should
promote compressional warming/downsloping. This will likely nudge
highs into the upper 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, especially Friday
afternoon across the Connecticut River Valley, where probabilities
exceed 75 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potentially unsettled and cooler conditions this
weekend into early next week.

Looking toward the weekend, forecast confidence lowers due to
variability among guidance. The broad thinking remains that surface
high pressure shifts offshore, mid-level heights fall, and cooler
temperatures advect aloft.

As noted by a previous forecaster, there is a chance much of
Saturday remains dry. However, there are enough signals to warrant
at least a mention of scattered afternoon showers. By Sunday, a low
pressure system passing near a nearly stalled frontal boundary
presents a more favorable setup for showers. This front could linger
into early next week, continuing at least some risk for showers.

This will clearly be something to watch, as we appear to remain in
an unfortunate pattern of cooler and soggier weekends across the
Northeast. Temperatures should begin trending cooler Saturday,
though the cooldown is expected to become more noticeable Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z...High confidence.

VFR. Light to calm winds.

Today through Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. A low chance for a brief (less than 20 percent), isolated
shower mainly between 19z-01z, otherwise, dry conditions today
through Wednesday. Winds today are from the northwest at 8 to 12
knots for interior locations, while coastal sites experience an
onshore wind from the south to southeast. Overnight, light to
calm winds prevail, followed by light northwest winds across
interior locations as high pressure settles into the region on
Wednesday. Coastal locations will have a light onshore wind.

KBOS...High confidence in TAF.

VFR through the TAF period. A sea breeze develops between 15-17z,
followed by light winds overnight and then a weak sea breeze on
Wednesday.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF.

VFR with northwest winds today and Wednesday, with light to calm
winds overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday...High confidence.

In general, conditions today through Wednesday will support
tranquil boating conditions as surface high pressure remains the
dominant feature. Dry weather prevails as well, though there is
a very low chance of a pop-up shower mainly this afternoon into
the early evening (less than 20 percent), otherwise, dry
conditions persist into Wednesday. Winds today are generally
from the south to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots, becoming
light and somewhat variable on Wednesday as high pressure
settles over the region. However, colder sea surface
temperatures relative to warmer land temperatures will promote
onshore winds across waters near the immediate coast. Seas
generally 2 to 4 feet today, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet on
Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Dooley