095
FXUS61 KBOX 282332
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
732 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, pleasant weather continues through the work week as
  temperatures increase.

- High pressure likely to maintain dry weather through at least
  Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday,
  but the details are not yet certain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, pleasant weather continues through the
work week as temperatures increase.

Large high pressure continues to be the primary driver of the
pleasant days and cool nights through Thursday. Expecting
another night of radiational cooling dropping temperatures;
however, party cloudy skies heading into the overnight hours
will likely hinder the cooling effect... expecting temperatures
to remain in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Southern New England will see warmer temperatures Thursday and
Friday as a surge of warm air advection ahead of a cold front
warms 925 mb temperatures to between +11 and +15C... highs
Thursday in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the Merrimack and
Connecticut River Valleys, and highs Friday near 70 for the
southern and eastern coastal plains (mid 60s for the interior
and Cape/Islands). As the cold front approaches Friday, winds
are likely to be gustier than we`ve seen the last several
days...likely 20 to 25 mph at times, possibly 30 to 35 mph in
the higher elevations.

Post-FROPA Friday night, skies clear and winds calm for another
night of radiational cooling. Temperatures will once again drop
into the low to mid 30s for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure likely to maintain dry weather
through at least Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday
into Wednesday, but the details are not yet certain.

The dominant high pressure should finally move off the coast
Sunday night into Monday. Even then, its influence is expected
to slowly diminish into the middle of next week.

There are rather large discrepancies in the evolution of a mid
level ridge across the central USA early next week. The
magnitude and orientation of this ridge will be the determining
factor for the track of a low pressure trying to move east from
the Rockies. at this time, thinking this low pressure will
struggle to move east quickly. That leaves the positioning of
its associated fronts to consider. With the low pressure quite
a ways away from southern New England, there will not be much
push to move them much as well.

Overall, the most likely outcome is that dry weather prevails.
However, a quasi-warm front may get close enough to our region
Tuesday into Wednesday to perhaps trigger a few showers. Not
seeing much moisture to work with, so any precipitation would be
light.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR conditions. Initially light winds become SW and increase to
5-10 kts overnight.

Thursday...High confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds potentially gust up to 20 kts by mid-
morning.

Thursday Night...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Areas of MVFR, or local IFR across the higher
terrain, along a dry cold front as it crosses southern New
England.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night...High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-3 ft continue as high pressure persists
across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away
Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts.
Marginal SCA conditions possible across the eastern near coastal
waters Thursday afternoon then spreads to the southern waters
Thursday night.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn