734
FXUS61 KBOX 051532
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1132 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a couple of marine and coastal headlines for the holiday
weekend. For boaters, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued and is
in effect from 2 am to 8 pm Sunday. For beachgoers, a Rip Current
Statement is in effect for east-facing beaches and the islands from
7 am to 8 pm through much of the day on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mainly dry day on tap except along and east of the I- 495 corridor
  where there is a chance for afternoon showers and perhaps a
  thunderstorm or two.


- Fall-like feel for Sunday, then more seasonable for Labor
  Day. A gradual warm-up throughout the week with continued dry
  weather through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

- Elevated risk for dangerous rip currents through the Holiday
  Weekend, especially Sunday into Labor Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A mainly dry day on tap except along and east of
the I-495 corridor where there is a chance for afternoon showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two.

The main weather maker for the next day or so will be a broad cutoff
low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. As a result, some
unsettled weather is possible for the start of the Labor Day Holiday
weekend, more details ahead. Should see a rather pleasant start to
the day with mainly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to mid
60s. Temps climb into the lower to mid 70s, and when combined with
cooling aloft (925 mb temps cooling to 12-14C), will result in steep
low level lapse rates. These lapse rates will drive diurnal cumulus
which likely builds into areas of showers and a few thunderstorms as
SFC CAPE values climb to 300-500 J/kg. High-res guidance features an
inverted trough moving across the CWA from NE to SW between 18-22z.
This feature serves as a focus for convection and more organized
precipitation chances during that timeframe. Believe the latest NBM
has a good handle on these changes with hourly POPs increasing to 45-
50 percent across interior areas. Not expecting a washout by any
means, but a brief period of heavy rain is possible as these showers
move through.  Any lingering showers quickly dissipate with the loss
of daytime heating this evening. Expect a cooler night as somewhat
ideal conditions for radiational cooling are expected with light
winds and mostly clear skies. Lows will generally be in the low to
mid 50s and even the upper 40s in more favorable locations such as
local river valleys.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Fall-like feel for Sunday, then more seasonable for
Labor Day. A gradual warm-up throughout the week with continued dry
weather through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

Saturday night through the middle of the upcoming week features
fairly benign conditions, with little in the way of rainfall
chances. The 500mb forecast map shows somewhat of an omega ridge
centered across the middle of the country, with a closed mid-level
low centered over Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon. The omega ridge
flattens out, with semi-zonal flow developing across the coast by
Tuesday and then shortwave troughing for late week across the
northeastern states, likely leading to the next chance for active
weather for southern New England. At the surface, high pressure
builds in from the northwest Sunday, with its origins in northern
Canada. Surface high pressure remains the dominant weather feature
throughout the majority of the forecast period, leading to a stretch
of dry weather.

Temperatures aloft are cooler Sunday, associated with that mid-level
low east of New England. 925mb temperatures are only around +8C to
+10C, which with boundary layer mixing supports highs in the upper
60s to low 70s. Thus, Sunday will feel very much like autumn, with a
blend of sun and clouds, northerly winds and dew points in the low
50s. While winds won`t be overly strong, the combination of cooler
temperatures and lower dew points will make for a rather crisp day.
Sunday night should feature decent radiational cooling with high
pressure settling across the region, though this will depend on how
quickly winds diminish. Did opt for a blend of colder guidance on
Sunday night, which brought temperatures down into the upper 40s to
low 50s for most of southern New England, with urban centers like
Boston remaining in the middle 50s.

Good news if you aren`t ready for pumpkin spice weather, as
temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week from WAA aloft.
925mb temperatures climb +14C to +18C, supporting near-seasonable
highs in the upper 70s for Labor Day, then upper 70s to lower 80s
Tuesday into the middle part of next week. Humidity remains
tolerable as well, with dew points generally in the upper 50s to
around 60F. Labor Day itself looks quiet and dry, though there will
be a high risk for rip currents along the ocean beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated risk for dangerous rip currents through the
Holiday Weekend, especially Sunday into Labor Day.

Persistent northeast flow, long-period swell, and offshore seas of 4-
7 feet will continue to support an elevated risk for dangerous rip
currents through the Holiday Weekend, especially Sunday into Labor
Day for east-facing ocean beaches. With otherwise quiet weather
expected, those heading to the beach should be mindful that ocean
conditions may still be hazardous. Be sure to check with local beach
staff or lifeguards regarding ocean conditions before entering the
water.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

SCT to BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR ceilings with bases 020-040. Anticipate
SCT-BKN decks thru late-morning, then trending closer to BKN/OVC
this aftn. Hit-or-mostly-miss -SHRA with 4-6 SM visbys after
17z, with better coverage and lower visbys toward ORH and
especially BDL. N winds around 5-10 kt shift to NE/ENE this
afternoon and increase to around 10 kt, with winds around 12-15
kt for eastern MA.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Mainly BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings with periodic light -SHRA; lowest
ceilings BDL/ORH thru midnight, but could slip back eastward
after midnight toward RI/eastern MA, as a disturbance aloft
moves ESE from Quebec. NE winds around 5-10 kt.

Sunday: High confidence.

BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings early Sunday, but scattering to VFR by
late-morning/early afternoon. NE winds 5-10 kt early shift to
northerly by late morning/early afternoon, although BOS may
hold onto easterly winds after clouds clear.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN 020-040 ceilings
thru 17z, then trending BKN/OVC 020-040 afterward. Outside
chance at aftn -SHRA but visbys should be VFR. NE winds around
10-13 kt.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN 035-045 ceilings
this afternoon; but trending MVFR late this afternoon/tonight
with SCT SHRA, visbys 4-6 SM. NE winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...

Winds shift N and NE today sustained to 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft,
increasing slightly heading into Sunday. Moderate chance of
showers later this afternoon across much of the waters. Slight
chance for isolated thunderstorms. Small Craft conditions
develop across the eastern outer waters after 06z Sunday
lingering through much of the day. Rip Current Statement is in
effect from early Sunday morning to the evening.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from late tonight through Sunday evening
     for MAZ007-014>016-019-022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/FT
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Dooley/FT