563
FXUS61 KBOX 231826
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
226 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through this weekend.

- Periodic chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms with
  summerlike humidity both return in the late Mon through Wed
  timeframe...perhaps lingering into Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through
this weekend.

A surface high pressure will dominate our weather through this
weekend. It will remain relatively cool for late July with
comfortable humidity for most. Once of the more uncertain
aspects to this forecast will be the winds.

Gusty W to NW winds early this afternoon will continue to
subside into this evening. Not as confident this will lead to an
east coast sea-breeze for most, as the gradient wind would be
more likely to keep it just offshore. As this high pressure
moves overhead tonight into Friday, winds become very
light/calm. Have greater confidence in sea-breezes developing
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periodic chances for scattered showers &
thunderstorms with summerlike humidity both return in the late Mon
through Wed timeframe...perhaps lingering into Thu.

The next shortwave trough approaches the region from the west in
the late Mon-Wed timeframe. This will allow southerly flow to
bring typical summerlike humidity back to southern New England.
This will also bring a return to period chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region in the late Mon-Wed time
frame...perhaps lingering int Thu if trough is slower to depart.
As is typical this time of year...that entire period will not
be a washout with many hours of dry weather. While specific
timing is impossible to pinpoint...afternoon/evenings will be
favored given diurnal heating/instability. Pwats on the order of
1.50 to 2" will bring the risk of localized heavy rainfall
within any convection.

Temperatures fairly seasonable for this time of year. Lows may be a
bit above normal with highs a touch below normal given the
increasing low level moisture for the middle of next week. Nothing
though really out of the ordinary for July standards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High confidence.

VFR. Winds WNW to NW for most terminals 5-10 kts. Sea-breezes
likely for the coastal areas developing 18-20Z as NW winds
weaken.

Tonight through Friday Night...High confidence.

VFR. Light to calm winds overnight out of the S to SW, shift
more towards S to SE for Friday, then finally more E to NE late
Friday night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Lower confidence in a sea-breeze developing after this
afternoon. Gusty NW winds are more likely to keep the sea-breeze
front over the harbor. There is still a low chance for a brief
sea-breeze right before the evening push.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday Night...High confidence.

Winds and seas continue to subside into tonight as a high
pressure moves over the waters Friday. Lingering rough seas
across the coastal waters behind a cold front. Did tweak the end
timing of the current Small Craft Advisories to account for
observed trends.

High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed southern
coastlines through this evening. Prolonged period of higher
seas and SW flow have increased the risk for rip currents. The
higher risk decreases Friday.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank