356
FXUS61 KBOX 152327
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Monitoring sfc haze/smoke conditions for
the day as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to move in.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy/smoky conditions linger.

- Dangerous rip currents expected on south-facing beaches into
  this evening.

- While seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week,
  chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase
  heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hazy/smoky conditions linger.

While hazy and smoky conditions should persists into Thursday,
the question remains about how concentrated it will be close to
the ground. Currently thinking there is not much hope of the
smoke aloft completely dissipating before Friday. Favored the
lower temperature guidance for Thursday after seeing how the
smoke affected them today. Even so, perhaps have not gone low
enough with high temperatures tomorrow.

Not much chance for showers through Thursday night. Any that do
form would likely bring more smoke to the ground, and not result
in much rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous rip currents expected on south-facing
beaches into this evening.

Wave heights continue to subside this evening, gradually
bringing an end to the threat of rip currents along the south-
facing beaches overnight. Swim near vicinity of lifeguards and
stay off jetties today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...While seasonable temperatures return for the end
of the week, chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to
increase heading into the weekend.

Seasonable temperatures return Friday as the upper level ridge
that`s been dominating the region slides offshore and a cold
front ushers in a cooler airmass. 925 mb temperatures fall to
generally around 18-20C, which will be more supportive of high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into
early next week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading
into the weekend as a surface low approaches Saturday, bringing
prolonged southwesterly flow and surging PWATs. Consensus is
improving that southern New England could see beneficial
rainfall Saturday into Sunday but the latest ensemble guidance
is quite spread on exactly how much precipitation could fall.

A brief spell of drier conditions is possible Monday as high
pressure builds somewhere over the Appalachian region. Chances
for showers then increase again for the middle of next week as
a surface low moves east across Ontario and a trailing cold
front sweeps through the mid-Atlantic region into New England.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

VFR, though hazy/smoky skies continue into Thursday. W/NW winds
around 5-10 kt tonight, then increasing with gusts to 25 kt
Thu. Light NW winds Thu night.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR through the
night as smoke thins a little. Expecting another thick plume of
smoke to arrive Thur 16z-18z and drop visbys to MVFR.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR through the
night as smoke thins a little. Expecting another thick plume of
smoke to arrive Thur 16z-18z and drop visbys to MVFR.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

Lingering rough seas and gusty southwest winds will continue to
subside this afternoon. Will permit the Small Craft Advisories
to expire at 8 PM. Relatively light winds and seas expected into
Thursday night. There may be a few gusts up to 25 kt for a time
late morning Thursday into the afternoon. Not enough confidence
to extend a Small Craft Advisory across the southern coastal
waters at this time. That may come with later forecasts.

Otherwise, hazy/smoky sky conditions are expected through
Thursday night. Some areas of reduced visibility could be
possible due to this smoke.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain
showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     MAZ002>024-026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MAZ020>024.
RI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     RIZ001>008.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>235-237-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn