122
FXUS61 KBOX 111900
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
200 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, blustery and much colder today, although a few
Blustery weather and below normal temperatures continue through
the rest of the week into Saturday with nothing more than a few
brief passing rain/snow showers. A frontal system may bring
mostly rain next Sunday with drier conditions Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Gusty winds continue into the evening before winding down after
  midnight

* Chilly with sub-freezing lows and wind chills in the 20s.

Gusty winds from this afternoon persist through about midnight
before an upper-level trough axis and associated low-level jet
shifts east this evening and overnight. Until then, gusty westerly
winds from 25-35 mph will be possible, with gusts up to 45 mph
possible over Nantucket where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.

Roughly after midnight, a mid-level ridge building over The
Northeast will allow the pressure gradient to relax and westerly
winds to diminish. While the stronger 20-30 mph gusts will come to
an end, westerly winds will still be steady around 10 mph. Thus,
with mechanical mixing and continued mid-level cloud cover, we`re
not anticipating any significant radiational cooling tonight.
Nonetheless, the air mass still remains cooler than normal and we
can expect low temps near or below freezing for most of southern New
England. Steady winds will have the "feels like" temperatures in the
20s for most of the region as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages

* A few rain/snow showers early followed by a slight uptick in
  temperatures

* Quiet weather tomorrow night with lows once again in the 30s


Weak short-wave energy may trigger a few rain showers over the south
coast, Cape, and Islands early tomorrow morning. Also can`t rule out
a few snow showers over The Berkshires and Worcester Hills, but most
locations will remain dry. Southwest flow develops allowing modest
low-level WAA tomorrow afternoon which will support 925 hPa temps
rising a few degrees from Tuesday. This will result in high
temperatures about 5 or 6 degrees higher than Tuesday. Cloudy skies
early will give way to partial sunshine in the afternoon with steady
west winds. Skies then scatter out tomorrow night as west/northwest
flow ushers in a drier air mass. Low temps once again in the low to
mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages

* Chilly temperatures continue through the weekend

* A low pressure system will bring rain and possibly frozen
  precipitation to southern New England Saturday night through
  Sunday

Thursday through Saturday

Deep northwest flow will support persistent CAA over The Northeast
Thursday through Saturday morning. This will continue to support
below normal temperatures with daily highs/lows in the mid 40s/
upper 20s-low 30s respectively. A dry column and surface high
pressure should support more sun than clouds during this time frame.

Saturday night through early next week

By Saturday night, model guidance is revolving a robust pulse of
short-wave energy digging southeast over The Great Lakes and across
The Northeast. This is expected to bring substantial precipitation
to southern New England with 24 hour ensemble mean precipitation
forecast coming in around a half inch. Additionally, many solutions
support a setup that would involve warm air aloft overrunning
shallow sub-freezing air at the surface. This may introduce some
precipitation type issues to the forecast where we some locations
may be dealing with a wintry mix. Details are vague at this time
range, but this will be something to watch closely as we approach
the weekend. Strong cold air advection behind this system will
continue to support below-normal temperatures as we head into early
next week. Stay tuned for further details...



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Through 00Z... High Confidence

VFR with BKN/OVC cloud decks around 035-050 feet. Some snow
flurries have been popping up at some of the terminals and will
continue to do so through sunset. Gutsy westerly winds continue
with gusts ranging from 25-35 knots. Higher gusts over
Cape/Islands.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Clouds scatter out in the evening. W gusts 25-35 kt in the
evening, up to 40 kt at ACK, then gradually decreasing
overnight.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR cigs. A few showers possible over the Cape/Islands. SW wind
10-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt Cape/Islands.

Wednesday Night... High Confidence.

Mainly VFR with some patchy MVFR possible across interior MA.
Light westerly winds from 5 to 1 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

BKN cigs lifting to around 5k ft with an afternoon flurry
possible. W gusts to 25 kt this morning, with 35 kt gusts
possible this afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

VFR cigs with an afternoon flurry possible. W gusts to 25-30 kt
developing.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Gale force winds continue overnight before diminishing
  tomorrow morning

Gusty gale force westerly winds continue this afternoon and
evening over the coastal waters. Winds weaken below Gale Force
tomorrow morning, but SCY criteria persists through tomorrow
afternoon for most of the marine zones. Expect faster
improvement over the eastern waters where SCY conditions
diminish by early-mid afternoon. Seas over outer southern marine
zones remain elevated through tomorrow night with significant
wave heights between 6 and 8 feet.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
NEAR TERM...KJC/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...KJC/RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...KJC/RM