448
FXUS61 KBOX 161726
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1226 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drying out and becoming windy today behind a cold front with falling
afternoon temperatures. Blustery and chilly conditions Monday and
Tuesday, then decreasing wind Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure moves into the region. Frontal system arrives Friday into
Saturday bringing the next chance for meaningful precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Becoming windy today with gusts to 30-40 mph, up to 45 mph
  possible in the high terrain into this evening

* A few passing showers possible this afternoon, with scattered snow
  showers through tonight in the Berkshires

Dry slot is racing east into the region which will bring an end to
the rain next few hours as max pressure falls and best convergence
move offshore. Rain has already ended in the west and will end in
eastern MA next 1-2 hours. The cold front moves across the region
through mid morning and will be followed by sharply falling PWATs to
near 0.3" by afternoon. Expect clouds will give way to partly to
mostly sunny skies this morning although a few upslope showers may
spill into the east slopes of the Berkshires. During the afternoon,
a potent mid level shortwave and accompanying cold pool aloft will
move into the region. Diurnal cu will increase and can`t rule out a
few spotty afternoon showers, especially interior but any showers
will end this evening as the shortwave moves to the east. Expect
varying amounts of cloud cover tonight as mid level moisture rotates
south into the region around upper low.

In the Berkshires, any rain showers will trend to snow showers this
afternoon as colder air deepens with potential for upslope snow
showers to spill into the east slopes through tonight. Localized
accum of an inch or 2 is possible in far NW Franklin county.

Gusty winds will develop later this morning behind the cold front as
strong cold advection deepens the boundary layer. Soundings support
gusts to 30-40 mph across the region, with potential for sporadic 40-
50 mph gusts in the Berkshires, Worcester Hills and the Islands.
Duration of these stronger wind gusts should be brief and isolated
so no wind advisory. The strongest gusts will occur this afternoon
into this evening when 925/850 mb winds peak, then gusts should drop
off a bit overnight. Duration of these stronger wind gusts should be
brief and isolated so no wind advisory.

Temps will max out this morning with readings in the 50s in the
coastal plain and 40s interior, then falling afternoon temps through
the 40s, and 30s interior high terrain by late afternoon. Lows
tonight will range from mid 20s to lower 30s with wind chills down
into the teens and lower 20s by Mon morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Continued windy with mix of sun and clouds Monday. Temps well
  below normal.

Upper low lifts north through the Maritimes with deep low pres
producing a strong pressure gradient across New Eng. Windy
conditions will continue with gusts to 25-35 mph within a well mixed
boundary layer. Expect a mix of sun and clouds but dry conditions as
forcing is minimal and no cooling aloft. 925 mb temps recover to
around -2C so a chilly day with highs ranging from mid 30s to lower
40s, which is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and blustery Tue with below normal temps
* Less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal
* Unsettled weather with milder temps Fri-Sat

Maritimes upper low will continue lifting northward through
eastern Canada Tue but still gusty winds with dry weather, then
flow de-amplifies for the middle and end of the week as quasi
zonal flow develops. Dry pattern with less wind Wed-Thu as high
pres moves into the region. Weak shortwave moves through Thu but
global ensembles keep best chance of any showers to the south
and west near a weak boundary. Then pattern looks unsettled Fri-
Sat as a complex interaction of northern and southern stream
energy move toward New Eng. Details are uncertain but chance of
rain will increase sometime Fri into Sat.

Temps will remain below normal through Thu with highs mostly in the
40s, then milder conditions anticipated Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

Rest of Today...High confidence.

Lingering stratus and fog in the interior have cleared, leading
to VFR conditions across the region. A few passing showers
remain possible through this afternoon (and we`ve already seen
some around ORH and in CT), especially over the interior with
scattered SNSH across the Berkshires. W winds with gusts to
30-35 kt continue through this afternoon with a few gusts to 40
kt possible over higher elevations and ACK.

Tonight and Monday...High confidence.

VFR, but a few snow showers with lower conditions in the
Berkshires tonight. W winds continue gusting 20-35 kts.

Monday Night...High confidence.

VFR. W winds finally diminish over land. Gusts around 25 kts
remain possible over Cape Cod and the Islands, but elsewhere
should remain below 20 kts. Sustained winds around 10 kts,
though slightly elevated over ACK and MVY.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings for Sunday into Mon.

Cold front moves through this morning followed by increasing W winds
with gusts to 35-40 kt developing and continuing into tonight and
Monday. Building seas peaking tonight at 10-14 ft over southern
waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Hrencecin
MARINE...KJC