582
FXUS61 KBOX 271120
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
620 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder and windier conditions follow behind the cold front for
Thanksgiving. Winds then increase on Friday and lessen by Saturday,
with scattered flurries at times in interior Southern New England to
end the week. Another low pressure passes to our north and west
Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain. Cooling down
again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible
storminess around Tue/Wed.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Colder today and blustery.

Our cold front continues to push through southern New England early
this morning, presently draped from north to south across eastern
MA. This should push offshore in the next few hours with a
significant drying behind it on increasing NW winds. 850mb temps
drop precipitously as a broad mid level trough expands over the
Great Lakes and eventually New England. This all leads to a mostly
sunny but cooler day, with highs in the mid/upper 40s feeling more
like the 30s thanks to winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Winds will come
down overnight but with only a marginal inversion if any so likely
won`t see winds becoming calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Windier and colder on Friday.

* Scattered show showers/flurries over western/central MA possible.

Winds quickly pick up on Friday after sunrise as the mixing layer
increases in height coincident to the core of a 45kt LLJ moving
overhead. Currently expecting the windiest day of the week with
gusts as high as 45 mph in the high terrain/eastern slopes of the
Berkshires. The core of colder air also moves closer so those high
temperatures drop several degrees, into the upper 30s/low 40s. The
only precipitation to note will be some scattered lake effect
streamers from the Great Lakes that will hold together across NY and
making for some festive flakes with negligible accumulations in
western/central MA during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Less windy on Saturday.

* Temps warm up significantly Sunday before dropping again first
  half of next week.

* Quick hitting light rain Sunday/Sunday night followed by the
  potential for a higher impact, potentially wintry storm around
  Tuesday/Wednesday but confidence is low.

Cold, cyclonic flow continues overhead on Saturday but the core of
the LLJ moves off so winds, while breezy, will be lighter than on
Friday. One more day of cold temperatures (peaking in the mid
30s/low 40s) before a significant warm up Sunday with the arrival of
a warm front ahead of a low pressure system passing to our north.
This brings with it stratiform rain showers accompanying temps in
the upper 40s to low 50 in the afternoon. Guidance has sped up the
arrival so many will see wet weather on Sunday, but it comes to an
end well before sunrise Monday; not expecting a lot of QPF from this
quick hitting system.

The more interesting system is slated for around Tuesday as the next
deep shortwave digging into the OH valley looks to drag a surface
low center past New England from SW to NE; the biggest question, the
exact track and how precip types subsequently shake out, is still a
long time from being answered at 6 days out. At this point guidance
has all option on the table from a mostly rain event to a near miss
offshore to a snowier solution. For now, ensembles are not enthused.
Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update...

Today/Thanksgiving...High Confidence.

VFR. Brief period of lighter WSW winds 12-14z before winds mix
back down by 15Z, then W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts
through remainder of day.

Thursday night...High Confidence.

VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts gusting 15-25 kts.

Friday...High Confidence.

VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Gusting 30-35 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday... High confidence.

* Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones Thursday.

* Gale Warning for Friday through early Saturday across all waters.

A cold front crosses the waters early this morning clearing fog/low
clouds. Gusts 25-34 kts are possible for a period after the frontal
passage early this morning. Otherwise winds/gusts 20-30 kts for
marine zones today. Seas rising to 6-8ft by the afternoon for the
southern outer waters. This will keep marine zones in SCA criteria
all day. Southern outer waters may briefly by shy of gale winds for
a brief period with the frontal passage early this morning. Gale
Warning is in effect for Friday.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW