540
FXUS61 KBOX 151725
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1225 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring dry weather with less wind today. A
frontal system will bring a period of rain tonight, then drying out
and becoming windy Sunday. Blustery and cool weather prevails early
next week, then diminishing wind and continued dry weather into
midweek as high pressure builds in from the west. Milder conditions
develop for the end of the week along with a chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Cool and dry today with increasing afternoon clouds

Weak high pres to the west will slide south of New Eng then move
offshore this afternoon. Sunshine will be plentiful this morning,
but backing flow aloft with approaching shortwave energy to the west
will result in increasing mid-high clouds this afternoon. Rain will
develop to the west this afternoon ahead of a warm front, but dry
air in the 925-850 mb layer will keep it dry today with rain not
arriving until after dark. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s
with generally light winds becoming SW this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Rain quickly overspreads the region this evening and exits late
  tonight. Brief gusty winds over the Islands around midnight

* Becoming windy Sunday. Chance of a few rain/snow showers in
  western MA in the afternoon

Tonight...

Warm front moves into the region tonight. Good moisture transport
and low level convergence at the nose of a low level jet will result
in rain quickly overspreading SNE from west to east between 7-9 pm.
Hi-res guidance is indicating marginal low level cold air over the
northern Berkshires this evening as the rain moves in so can`t rule
out brief freezing rain here at the onset. But expect any icing to
be isolated and brief as temps will be rising into and through the
40s and into the lower 50s near the south coast. This is quick
hitting system with dry slot racing into SNE after 06z so expect
rain will be ending before daybreak with a 6 hour period of rainfall
for most locations. Decent forcing for ascent and moisture transport
with PWATs increasing to 1"+ support brief moderate to heavy rain
and rainfall amounts should average around 0.50". There is some
elevated instability especially to the south and hi-res CAMs show a
convective nature to the rainfall so can`t rule out an isolated
rumble of thunder near the south coast.

Will have to monitor wind potential near the immediate south coast
around and after midnight as low level jet develops. Soundings do
not show much mixing potential but with temps rising into low 50s
could see a period of 30-40 mph gusts, mainly over the Islands.

Sunday...

Cold front will be moving through SNE during the pre-dawn hours
and will move off the coast by mid morning. Excellent drying
behind the front as PWATs drop to near 0.25" during the
afternoon so expect partly to mostly sunny skies developing.
However, a potent shortwave and accompanying cold pool will be
rotating through SNE in the afternoon so can`t rule out a few
showers, especially over the higher terrain.

Also, strong cold advection develops with deepening boundary layer
leading to strong wind gusts developing. Soundings support wind
gusts to 30-40 mph and higher gusts are possible over the higher
elevations later in the afternoon. Highs will be reached in the
morning with low-mid 50s in the coastal plain and 40s interior,
then falling temps through the 40s in the afternoon, and into
the 30s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry and blustery Mon-Tue with below normal temps
* Less wind and a bit milder Wed-Thu
* Unsettled weather with seasonable temps Friday

Upper low moves into the Maritimes Monday with flow gradually
de-amplifying toward midweek as broad ridge approaches from the
west. Overall it`s a dry pattern as PWATs are low with no
significant shortwave passages. By the end of the week, moisture
will be approaching from the west ahead of low pres moving
through the Gt Lakes so may see some wet weather develop Friday.

Monday will be the coolest day with windy conditions then
moderating temps and less wind through Wed-Thu as high pres
builds into the region. Mildest day will be Friday as
increasing SW flow brings seasonable temps back to SNE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

This afternoon...High confidence.

VFR with gradually lowering cigs late today in the west. NW wind
5-10 kt becoming W-SW 5-10 kt this afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in timing.

Cigs lowering to MVFR then IFR-LIFR with rain overspreading
00-03z. Rain exits 07-10z with improving conditions toward
daybreak. S-SW wind 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt developing along
immediate south coast and Cape/Islands becoming SW-W toward
daybreak.

Sunday...High confidence.

Lingering MVFR improving to VFR by mid morning. A few rain or
snow showers possible in western MA in the afternoon. Increasing
W winds with gusts to 35 kt developing in the afternoon.

Sunday night...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty W winds continue gusting 20-30 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale watches continue for Sunday into Mon

Winds and seas will be below SCA thresholds today. A developing low
level jet will bring increasing SW winds tonight with gusts to 25-35
kt after midnight, strongest gusts over southern waters where brief
gales are possible. Then on Sunday winds shift to W with gale force
gusts to 35-40 kt on most of the waters. Building seas tonight
and Sunday reaching 8-12 ft Sunday afternoon over the southern
waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
14 ft.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC