221
FXUS61 KBOX 140610
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
210 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall, little change to the forecast, with increasing confidence
that most of Sunday remains dry before rain chances increase Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable, less humid, and mainly dry conditions today,
  though an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is
  possible.

- Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather continues through the
  weekend.

- Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, followed by
  quieter weather through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable, less humid, and mainly dry conditions
today, though an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is
possible.

Overall, not much has changed with today`s forecast. If kicking off
the weekend early this Friday, pleasant weather is expected in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. Mainly sunny skies and a well-mixed
boundary layer will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to
middle 80s, with periodic breezy northwest winds. A sea breeze may
develop along Boston`s South Shore. Drier air continues to advect
into southern New England, with humidity lowering through the day. A
surface trough dropping south from northern New England this
afternoon may provide enough convergence for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, though coverage is expected to remain very limited.
Any shower or storm that develops should move through quickly and
remain non-severe.

Despite the pleasant weather, a moderate risk for rip currents is
expected today and Saturday. Those heading to the beach should
remain aware of local conditions and check with lifeguards or beach
staff regarding rip current risks at their specific location.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will support effective
radiational cooling. Lows fall into the 50s across the cooler
outlying locations, while urban centers remain near 60 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, seasonable, and comfortable weather continues
through the weekend.

Quiet weather is expected this weekend as high pressure originating
from northern Canada settles across the Northeast through the first
half of Sunday. PWATs lower to between 0.5 and 0.7 inches, resulting
in a notably dry airmass with little humidity. Temperatures remain
seasonable, with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s. Another cool night is expected Saturday night with clear skies
and light winds supporting effective radiational cooling. Lows fall
into the lower to middle 50s across the cooler outlying locations,
while urban centers remain near 60 degrees.

High pressure begins to shift offshore Sunday as a low pressure
system approaches from the Great Lakes. Increasing warm air
advection will bring increasing clouds through the afternoon, while
temperatures remain seasonable. Humidity will gradually increase as
dew points rise into the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday,
followed by quieter weather through most of next week.

The next opportunity for rainfall arrives during the second half of
Sunday, with the steadiest rain expected Sunday night into early
Monday. There is growing confidence that most, if not all, of the
daylight hours Sunday remain dry. Ensemble guidance generally keeps
the probability of measurable rainfall below 50 percent until around
00-06Z Monday, supporting a later onset to the rainfall.

There remains uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts, however, as
the best forcing is associated with the surface low and differences
in its track make it difficult to determine where the greatest
rainfall will occur. Ensemble guidance continues to depict differing
solutions, with some members keeping the primary low farther north
while others track it closer to or across southern New England.
Regardless of the eventual track, rainfall appears increasingly
likely Sunday night, though uncertainty remains regarding how much
rain will fall.

Global guidance is in agreement that PWATs may exceed 2 inches,
supporting the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The ECMWF EFI
and Shift of Tails for QPF also highlight a signal across northern
New England, while a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall remains in place for all of New England, with the exception
of northern Maine. Ensemble guidance continues to show considerable
spread in potential rainfall totals, with the ECMWF ensemble being
the more robust solution and the GFS and CMC ensembles generally
depicting lower totals.

The system appears progressive, with a cold front clearing east of
New England by Monday afternoon or evening. Drier air then advects
in from the northwest, leading to another dry stretch Tuesday
through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday, as surface high
pressure builds back into the region. Temperatures remain
seasonable, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and tolerable
humidity as dew points remain in the lower 60s. Unsettled conditions
may return late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update...No significant changes.

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Some diurnal CU this afternoon with bases 060-080. A low
probability of an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm, less than 30
percent at this time, so have left out of the current TAFs. However,
future TAF issuances may need to include this activity should
confidence increase. Northwest winds 8 to 12 kt, with gusts of 18 to
20 kt possible.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR and dry. Light to calm winds. Given the drier airmass, the
probability for fog in the usual areas is low at this time.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR and dry. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt, though there is potential
for a sea breeze to develop at coastal terminals.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

VFR and dry. A low probability (less than 25 percent) of an isolated
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly between 19Z and 23Z.
Northwest winds today, though a sea breeze is possible Saturday,
with continued dry and VFR conditions.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions are expected as high pressure settles in
from the north and remains in place through most of the weekend.
Most, if not all, of this period will remain dry, with only a low
probability of a spot shower this afternoon. Northwest winds early
this morning become southwesterly this afternoon, with wind speeds
generally less than 12 kt and seas between 2 and 3 ft. On Saturday,
wind direction becomes more variable as surface high pressure builds
overhead. Nearshore sea breezes may develop, with winds generally 10
to 15 kt.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Dooley