799
FXUS61 KBOX 141831
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
231 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with below normal temperatures through Tuesday night.

- Above normal temps return Wed through the end of the week with
  high temps mainly in the 70s to near 80. A few showers possible
  sometime late Thu into early Fri...But dry weather dominates.

- Possible return for unsettled weather towards the back half
  of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with below normal temperatures through
Tuesday night.

A large high pressure arrives from the west tonight. Gusty winds
subside around sunset, then become light and variable late this
evening. Expecting decent radiational cooling conditions,
leading to low temperatures about 5-10 degrees below normal. The
cooler conditions continue into Tuesday night with light E to SE
winds. This high pressure should be over the North Atlantic
Tuesday night, shifting winds more from the S to SW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return midweek and
last through the end of the week. Dry weather dominates, though
a few showers are possible sometime in the late Thursday-early
Friday timeframe.

High pressure continues to dominate this week`s pattern, keeping
generally dry conditions in place for southern New England. A strong
upper level ridge set up across the southeast US will build partly
into the northeastern US midweek before flattening out on its
northern tier Thursday into Friday. A trough remains well to our
north in Canada, and between these two large features, surface high
pressure remains affixed over much of the northern and northeastern
US. With a surge in warmer mid level air coming in from the west
during this period, more above-normal temperatures make a return
across southern New England; highs climb back up into the 70s and
may creep into the low 80s.

High pressure loosens its grip over the region slightly late
Thursday into Friday as a shortwave tracks toward the region. NAEFS
guidance signaled a return of more anomalous moisture with the
westerly flow, indicating PWATs about a standard deviation or two
above normal for this time of year. Ahead of any possible showers
with the incoming shortwave/frontal system, it may feel a bit more
humid on Thursday. Guidance currently favors showers moving through
the region late Thursday into Friday morning, though timing may
fluctuate slightly between now and then. Dry conditions follow as
drier air aloft is advected in, though the higher than normal
temperatures may remain Friday afternoon before cooler temperatures
take hold for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Possible return for unsettled weather towards
the back half of the upcoming weekend.

The ridge to our south appears to break down a bit going into the
weekend, which may introduce increased chances for more unsettled
conditions. Latest ensemble guidance hints at the second half of the
weekend as the likely timeframe with strong low pressure tracking
towards the region from the Plains and Great Lakes. Given how
far out this event is, much will likely change over future
updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High confidence.

VFR with gusty NW to N winds. Gusts up to 25 kt. Winds diminish
toward sunset.

Tonight...High confidence.

Winds becoming calm/light from a N direction except N-NE at 5
to 15 knots along the immediate coast, Cape and Islands.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. NE to E winds 5-10 kt becoming S to SE along portions of
the immediate coast.

Tuesday night...High confidence.

VFR. Winds becoming light S to SW.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High pressure moves over the waters late Tuesday, then offshore
Tuesday night. Gusty NW to N winds diminish towards sunset
tonight. Expecting relatively light winds and seas through
Tuesday night. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will end
later this afternoon. The existing headlines may be canceled
early. Will continue to monitor through this afternoon.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin