671
FXUS61 KBOX 020522
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
122 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered showers possible both this afternoon and
  Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday begins a pattern of steadily
  climbing temperatures each day through the week.

- Forecast confidence decreases for late this week. Conditions
  more likely to be dry and warm, but we continue to monitor the
  potential for an offshore system to bring showers this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few scattered showers possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday begins a pattern of
steadily climbing temperatures each day through the week.

The synoptic pattern continues to feature a broad upper trough
lingering over the Northeast with the associated cold pool
leading to widespread diurnal cloudcover over inland areas,
and even some decent pop-up shower coverage over western and
central SNE. This activity will continue through sundown when
skies quickly clear setting up for a good radiational cooling
night. Given building surface high pressure leading to calm
winds and clear skies overnight, the forecast has been trended
toward the cooler MOS guidance. We`re expecting lows in the
upper 30s/low 40s in the typical cold spots, closer to 50 in the
urban centers.

Tuesday features a transition from the broader trough we`ve
dealt with the last several days to a building mid level
ridge. As such, we expect warm advection and clear to mostly
sunny skies to lead to highs well into the 70s. That being said,
a weak disturbance rounding the base of the exiting trough will
be enough to once again kick off a few diurnal showers and even
a thunderstorm given a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE.
Expect the most sun in the morning before low level diurnal
clouds and some mid/high clouds filter in in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases for late this
week. Conditions more likely to be dry and warm, but we
continue to monitor the potential for an offshore system to
bring showers this weekend.

Mid level omega block expected to start breaking down Wednesday
into Friday. The mid level flow at that point should remain
rather amplified for an early meteorological summer pattern.
There are significant timing differences in how short this
breakdown process will be, which is not all that unusual. These
details matter, and will take a more probabilistic approach with
the forecast from Wednesday on.

Overall, it appears that southern New England finally edges more
into the higher heights part of the block around Wednesday, with
a surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. Expecting dry
weather with warmer conditions Wednesday into Friday.

The forecast this weekend into early next week is more
problematic. Much will depend on how quickly the aforementioned
omega block breaks. At this time, there is a chance that we
remain dry for most of the day Saturday. However, there are also
enough signals where a mention of scattered afternoon showers
is warranted. A low pressure passing by along a nearly stalled
front for Sunday is a more favorable pattern for showers. This
front could linger into Monday, continuing the risk for some
showers.

Temperatures should start to lower Saturday, but the cooldown is
anticipated to be more noticeable Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z...High confidence.

VFR. Light to calm winds.

Today through Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. A low chance for a brief (less than 20 percent), isolated
shower mainly between 19z-01z, otherwise, dry conditions today
through Wednesday. Winds today are from the northwest at 8 to 12
knots for interior locations, while coastal sites experience an
onshore wind from the south to southeast. Overnight, light to
calm winds prevail, followed by light northwest winds across
interior locations as high pressure settles into the region on
Wednesday. Coastal locations will have a light onshore wind.

KBOS...High confidence in TAF.

VFR through the TAF period. A sea breeze develops between 15-17z,
followed by light winds overnight and then a weak sea breeze on
Wednesday.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF.

VFR with northwest winds today and Wednesday, with light to calm
winds overnight.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday...High confidence.

In general, conditions today through Wednesday will support
tranquil boating conditions as surface high pressure remains the
dominant feature. Dry weather prevails as well, though there is
a very low chance of a pop-up shower mainly this afternoon into
the early evening (less than 20 percent), otherwise, dry
conditions persist into Wednesday. Winds today are generally
from the south to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots, becoming
light and somewhat variable on Wednesday as high pressure
settles over the region. However, colder sea surface
temperatures relative to warmer land temperatures will promote
onshore winds across waters near the immediate coast. Seas
generally 2 to 4 feet today, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet on
Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/BW
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Dooley