961
FXUS61 KBOX 011746
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
146 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, with temperatures trending above normal through
  Friday morning.

- Chances for showers return Friday evening as a cold front
  sweeps through New England.

- A secondary, sharp temperature drop is expected for the start
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, with temperatures trending above normal
through Friday morning.

A high pressure system off the North Carolina coast lends
support for a mid-level ridge stretching into New England,
bringing a warmer and drier airmass to southern New England.
While this conjunction will enhance the warming trend through
Friday, allowing temperatures to climb into mid 70s today and
near 80 by Friday, some low-level moisture from a shortwave over
the Great Lakes will lead to quite a bit of cloud cover over
the next few days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for showers return Friday evening as a
cold front sweeps through New England.

The next round of showers arrives Friday evening as a low
pressure system moves across Ontario and Quebec, and a trailing
cold front sweeps through New England. Guidance has honed in on
the later evening hours, likely after sunset, and into the night
for the FROPA. Some CAMs are even showing the showers falling
apart as the front moves further southeast, leading to higher
confidence that this system will not bring significant
rainfall... likely a quarter inch or less.

Once the low moves through Quebec, a rather strong continental
high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes and
southern Ontario, sinking those +4C to +6C 850mb temperatures
down into New England and sharply dropping surface temperatures
through the weekend... overnight temps likely drop into the
upper 30s to low 40s and daytime highs in the mid 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A secondary, sharp temperature drop is expected
for the start of next week.

Towards the second half of the weekend and into early next
week, ensemble guidance continues to indicate a deepening low
sweeps across the James Bay. There`s still some uncertainty on
if the high Saturday will be strong enough to stave off any
precip reaching as far south as southern New England Sunday
night, but the last few model runs have seemed to suggest there
could be a sprinkle or two... likely not anything significant,
if showers manifest at all.

A strong high pressure system then builds in right on the heels
of the low, bringing a secondary shot of even colder air to New
England. 850mb temperatures could drop to near or just below 0C
by Tuesday morning, supporting surface highs in mid 50s with
nighttime lows possibly falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z Friday: High confidence.

SCT-OVC multi-layered VFR cloud decks. SW winds around 8-12 kt,
with occasional gusts to 20 kt for the Cape and Islands.

Tonight: High confidence.

Continued multi-layered VFR cloud decks at SCT-OVC coverage.
SWly winds around 5-10 kt, with low-level wind shear starting
around 01-03z as jet of 35 kt at 2000 ft traverses Southern New
England.

Friday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing.

VFR continues, but a cold front will be approaching between
18-00z and bring with it a risk for showers, possibly a rumble
or two of thunder, but the exact timing is still uncertain. A
best estimate would be between 20-23z for BDL and 21-03z for
remaining terminals. SW winds around 10 kt, shifting to W/WNW
with frontal passage.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence.

Fairly tranquil conditions through Friday with light SW winds
and seas below 5 feet. Seas build towards 5 feet by late
tonight/early Friday across the southern waters due to the
sustained southwest winds. Winds Friday likely gust to near
25kts, and SCA`s may need to be issued for the southern waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...McMinn