036
FXUS61 KBOX 300539
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
139 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the waters valid from this
afternoon through Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A much drier air mass arrives today as a cold front pushes
  offshore. Expect windy conditions this afternoon behind the
  front.


- Yet more high pressure arrives this weekend into much of next
  week with a moderating temperature trend. The next bonafide
  chance for widespread precipitation arrives later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A much drier air mass arrives today as a cold front
pushes offshore. Expect windy conditions this afternoon behind the
front.

Cold front quickly pushes offshore early this morning. It will be
moisture starved with a very dry antecedent air mass. Will see
increasing winds and falling dewpoints this afternoon as the
boundary layer becomes well-mixed. The combination of falling
relative humidity values (>40%) and gusty winds between 25 and 35
mph will pair to increase the fire risk. While we typically look for
RH values at 35 percent and below, the prolonged dry stretch and
leaf drop prior to today`s elevated wind along with input from state
forestry and fire weather partners has prompted fire weather SPS`s
for the entire region. In terms of temperatures, expect a warmer day
along the I-95 corridor with highs near 70 degrees. Further inland,
locations will see cooler temps as diabatic warming competes with
moderate to strong cold air advection.  A sustained pretty tight
pressure gradient continues into Friday evening, which casts some
uncertainty on low temperatures. We opted to keep temps from the mid
30s to the low/mid 40s, highest towards the RI/eastern MA coasts
where winds will take longer to slacken off, and coolest readings
inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Yet more high pressure arrives this weekend into
much of next week with a moderating temperature trend. The next
bonafide chance for widespread precipitation arrives later next
week.

A series of high pressures will dominate the weather pattern over
southern New England this weekend clear through much of next week.
The post frontal airmass kicks off the weekend much cooler as 925 mb
temps drop from 12-15C Friday to 0-3C Saturday. Under dry NW flow
beneath a high building in from New York we`ll see high temperatures
climb just into the mid to upper 50s on Halloween with evening temps
in the 40s. Fortunately, by then the pressure gradient should have
lessened enough that winds will be light. The light winds and clear
post-frontal skies allow for radiational cooling Halloween night
with lows in the 20s inland and 30s across the coastal plain.
Similar weather picture on Sunday albeit a bit warmer as a weak
southwesterly return flow develops as the center of high pressure
moves offshore.

A mid-level trough looks to pass well to our northeast around
Tuesday but lack of moisture and the transient nature of the feature
will likely keep rain away before another high pressure takes hold
Wednesday into Thursday keeping dry and warmer than average weather
in place until the pattern may break down moving into next weekend.
Guidance is still largely split on the eventual evolution of the
upper level pattern with a wide range of solutions possible. The
most aggressive guidance wrt to a pattern change is the GFS which
depicts a deep shortwave trough over the eastern CONUS by Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight: High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Gusty windshift to NW 14-18 kt with gusts 25-30 kt during
at least the daytime hours. Guidance has trended towards
maintaining breezy conditions through much of the overnight at
most TAF sites.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday Night: High confidence.

SCA issued for the eastern near coastal and outer waters. SCA in
effect from 18z Friday to 12z Saturday for the near coastal
waters. SCA conditions linger a bit longer for the outer waters
where the advisory is in effect through 18z Saturday. SCA
conditions will be driven by a cold front which brings a period
of gusty NW winds between 25-30 kt this afternoon into Saturday
morning. Seas gradually build to 3-5 ft this afternoon and
maintain through much of the day on Saturday. Conditions
gradually improve Saturday evening and overnight.


Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ231-232-255-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/FT
AVIATION...BW/FT
MARINE...BW/FT