198
FXUS61 KBOX 292327
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gusty northwest winds and the recent spell of dry weather could
elevate the risk for fire weather concerns for Friday.
Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry cold front moves in tonight to early Friday morning, with
  breezy, cooler and dry weather for Friday.

- High pressure maintains quiet weather, potentially through
  late next week with warmer than average highs in the 60s by
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry cold front moves in tonight to early Friday
morning, with breezy, cooler and dry weather for Friday.

High pressure still remains in control of our weather, supplying
continued sunny and dry weather. Temperatures have warmed back up
into the 60s with a few spot 70s popping up, aided by SWly breezes.
However a dry cold frontal boundary is analyzed from central Quebec
through MI as of early Thursday afternoon, and this feature will be
crossing through Southern New England overnight into early Friday
morning. This frontal feature has limited moisture to work with
and is moving into an airmass that hasn`t seen a drop of rain
in quite a while. Really could only see some enhanced cloud
cover overnight tonight from it, with at worst some sprinkles.
Although the past couple nights have been pretty chilly, SW
winds around 10 mph for most of the overnight will keep
temperatures quite a bit milder than they`ve been - in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

Cold front should be moving offshore early Friday morning, but with
it brings strong cold/dry advection and breezy conditions through
much of Friday. With the protracted spell of dry weather and NWly
wind gusts to around 25 to 30 mph picking up in the late morning
hours, it could elevate the risk for fire weather given some leaf-
drop but the bigger question is that RHs don`t look critically low
at around 40 percent. We`ll be coordinating with our state forestry
and fire weather partners on the state of the fuels but fire weather
headlines/SPS could be forthcoming for Friday pending that input.
925 mb temps tumble to around +2 to +4C by sundown Friday, then
falling further into the 0 to -4C range by 12z Saturday. Downsloping
should still support highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s (some
upper 60s SE MA). Although typically gusty conditions ease by
sundown, a sustained pretty tight pressure gradient continues
into Friday evening, which casts some uncertainty on low
temperatures. We opted to keep temps from the mid 30s to the
low/mid 40s, highest towards the RI/eastern MA coasts where
winds will take longer to slacken off, and coolest readings
inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure maintains quiet weather,
potentially through late next week with warmer than average
highs in the 60s by Monday.

A series of high pressures will dominate the weather pattern over
southern New England this weekend clear through much of next week.
The post frontal airmass kicks off the weekend much cooler as 925 mb
temps drop from 12-15C Friday to 0-3C Saturday. Under dry NW flow
beneath a high building in from New York we`ll see high temperatures
climb just into the mid to upper 50s on Halloween with evening temps
in the 40s. Fortunately, by then the pressure gradient should have
lessened enough that winds will be light. Similar forecast for
Sunday but with highs a few degrees warmer, touching the low 60s in
the warmest spots like the CT and Merrimack valleys.

A mid-level trough looks to pass well to our northeast around
Tuesday but lack of moisture and the transient nature of the feature
will likely keep rain away before another high pressure takes hold
Wednesday into Thursday keeping dry and warmer than average weather
in place until the pattern may break down moving into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Through Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, though we will see some SCT-BKN VFR cloud decks after 06z
Friday as a dry cold front approaches Southern New England. This
cold front will still be moving through Southern New England
airspace by 12z Friday. SW winds around 10-13 kt with gusts
22-27 kt through sundown, then easing to around 8-12 kt into the
evening/overnight, with a windshift to W at BDL and ORH by
09-12z Friday.

Friday and Friday Night: High confidence overall, though it is
uncertain if gusty NW winds ease into the evening.

VFR. Gusty windshift to NW 14-18 kt with gusts 25-30 kt during
at least the daytime hours; it is more uncertain how long winds
stay up for and it is possible they may continue to be breezy
into a good part of the overnight.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday Night: High confidence.

SCAs were issued through 03z Friday in the nearshore waters
around Cape Cod where SW winds have been gusting to around
25-28 kt. SW winds should turn less gusty tonight, as a cold
front begins to approach the waters. Waves 2-3 ft.

This cold front then brings a gusty windshift to NW around 25-30
kt on Friday, and possibly linger into Friday afternoon. Will
let the existing SCA expire and then will need to issue SCAs for
at least Friday afternoon, but possibly linger into Friday
night for the eastern waters. Seas around 2-3 ft, but build to
around 3-5 ft through Friday afternoon and night, highest
offshore/ocean waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>235.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/BW
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW