281
FXUS61 KBOX 241516
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1016 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery but dry weather for Monday, with increasing clouds for
Monday evening. A warm front will bring a period of rain from late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, mild with a continued chance of
showers Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold
front. Cooler and blustery conditions follow behind the front for
Thanksgiving Day, then windy and cold weather for next Friday and
Saturday. More seasonable Sunday as high pressure moves
offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper-level ridge and a surface high-pressure builds in from the
south today, bringing a return to dry weather and sunny skies. 850mb
temps warm from -5C to +2C, helping afternoon highs rise into the
mid to upper 40s.  Surface winds stay NW today, at 10-15mph, gusting
20-25mph in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Tonight: High-pressure centers just south of SNE tonight, allowing
winds to go calm again overnight.  Mid to high level clouds begin
streaming in late overnight as a weak shortwave approaches from the
Ohio River Valley.  Still should see enough clear skies for
radiational cooling to drop lows into the low to mid 20s once again.

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds as WAA increases ahead of the next
shortwave to the west.  Surface winds turn SSW at 10-15mph, gusting
20-25, once again in the afternoon.  High temperatures only warm
slightly compared to Monday, only topping out in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Rain associated with the shortwave holds off until after
sunset on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Rain Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm front lifts across the
  region, turning mild with showers Wednesday afternoon. Drier for
  the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure builds in
  from the southwest, but cannot rule out festive flurries coming
  off the eastern Great Lakes.

* Colder Thursday into Saturday. Gusty west-northwest wind make
  temperatures feel more cold, especially Friday and Saturday. Then
  moderating temperature by the end of the weekend.

* Gale Force conditions are possible across all waters starting late
  Thursday through early Saturday.

Overview: Steadiest rainfall arrives Tuesday evening as a warm front
lifts north, widespread rain ends Wednesday morning. A mild day with
hit-and-miss showers are expected as the region is placed under the
warm sector. Following, robust shortwave/trough and frontal passage
overnight into early Thursday morning. Cold front moves offshores on
Thursday with the mid-level trough becoming cut off across the high
latitudes Thursday through Friday. Tightening pressure gradient will
bring gusty west-northwest winds as the magnitude of the 850mb jet
increases between 35 and 50 knots late Thursday into early Saturday,
ushering in a colder airmass. High pressure returns for the start of
next weekend with diminishing winds.

Precipitation: Mentioned above, a warm front lifts across the region
by Tuesday evening, steadiest rainfall overspreading the region from
the southwest to northeast. Rain may arrive as early as 4-6 PM for
areas south/west of Hartford, CT. Southwest flow brings higher PWATs
to southern New England, values between 1.0" and 1.3". Coupled with
modest ascent, widespread rainfall expected well into the overnight
hours, ending around daybreak Wednesday. Widespread rain will become
showery, leading to hit-and-miss activity during the day as the
region remains under the warm sector. The cold front moves through
overnight and exits early Thanksgiving morning. Rainfall amounts are
manageable, between 1/3" and 2/3", greatest at the south coast. As
temperatures fall on Thanksgiving, upslope snow flurries are possible
for high terrain of north/west Massachusetts. PWATs are considerably
lower behind the front, though persistent west-northwest flow allows
for lake effect snow showers coming off the eastern Great Lakes. Do
not expect any issues for southern New England, mainly periods of
festive flurries. Otherwise, mainly dry weather this coming weekend
as high pressure develops.

Temperatures: Spring-ish warmth for Wednesday as 925mb temperatures
climb between +10C and +13C. Afternoon highs top off close to 60F
across the coastal plain, while the rest of the region are between
the upper and middle 50s. Cold front ushers in colder airmass with
the 925mb temperatures lowering to 0C on Thanksgiving, and then down
to -5C for Friday and Saturday! On Thanksgiving day, afternoon highs
are in the upper 40s near the coast and upper 30s in the higher
terrain. West-northwest gusts have it feel as if it were in the 30s
for much of the region. As expected, Friday and Saturday are much
cooler, afternoon highs in the lower 40s to upper 30s across the
coastal plain and near freezing in the higher terrain. But, it will
feel as if it were below freezing for much of the region during the
afternoon because of those gusty west-northwest winds. Temperatures
begin to moderate by the end of the weekend.

Winds: Thursday through early Saturday southern New England is in
between two pressure systems; high pressure to the southwest and a
low pressure system to the northeast. Resulting in a strengthening
pressure gradient. 850mb winds ramp up late Thursday, with the core
of the strongest wind aloft, 35 to 50 knots, Friday/Saturday. BUFKIT
soundings have the mixed layer fairly deep due to the CAA, making it
possible to access those winds aloft and transport to the surface.
Gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible, DESI probabilites of gusts 30 mph or
higher are 70-90 percent. Gale Force gusts are possible for all the
waters, with high probabilites between 60-80 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR. WNW winds around 8-12 kt with gusts 20-22 kt thru 20z-22z,
then easing.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, increasing covg of mid to high clouds. Winds become
light/variable, then become SW and increase to 5-10 kt.

Tuesday: High confidence.

VFR, though ceilings continue to lower and could trend to OVC
MVFR western airports late as rain showers approach. SW winds
around 10 kt, with possible low level wind shear developing late
in the day as SWly low level winds pick up to around 30-35 kt.

Tuesday Night: Moderate confidence.

Conditions deteriorate to MVFR-IFR in all areas with periods of
4-6 SM rains and fog. Exact timing is still uncertain but most
areas likely to be sub-VFR by 05z. SW to S winds around 10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
RA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, patchy BR.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tuesday... High confidence.

* Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters through early Monday
  afternoon, then sub-criteria conditions through early Thursday.

* Potential for westerly Gale Force conditions Thursday afternoon
  through early Saturday across all waters.

A exiting low pressure system over the Bay of Fundy moves east into
the North Atlantic while high pressure builds across the waters of
southern New England. Residual gusty northwest wind and rough seas
across the southern waters subside by early afternoon, until then a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM today for gusts up
to 25-30 knots and seas 3-5 feet. Wind shifts to the southwest on
Tuesday with gusts less than 20 knots across all waters and seas
between 2 and 4 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft.

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ232>235-237-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...Dooley/KP