322
FXUS61 KBOX 250827
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
427 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Very warm, if not hot, conditions with comfortable humidity today.
Increasing humidity levels Wednesday with the risk for showers and
thunderstorms, and some could become strong. Drier and less
humid to end the workweek, although summerlike warmth and
humidity return by late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Highlights

* Quiet and mild conditions across southern New England today. Could
  be a bit breezy at times this afternoon. Increasing mid to high
  clouds late.

Currently caught between a a trough over the Gulf of ME and a ridge
building into the eastern Great Lakes. The ridge axis will build
into New England today, while a decaying MCs rides in its wake into
the eastern Great Lakes late today. High pressure builds over our
region today.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated across southern New England today.
As that decaying MCs slides into the eastern Great Lakes we will see
some increasing mid to high clouds, especially late this afternoon.
Otherwise weather is quite nice today with plenty of sunshine. Could
be a bit breezy as the boundary layer should be able to mix to
roughly 700-800 hPa per Bufkit soundings. Given the NW to W flow for
much of the day should see us mixing out the dew points a bit, so
blended down from the default NBM due to downsloping. Have also
bumped temps up to the 75th percentile of guidance to account for
downsloping. Highs in the 80s for most, but will see some lower 90s
across the Merrimack and CT River Valley. Should be fairly nice with
dew points comfortably in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights

* Still fairly quiet tonight into early Wed. Though there could be a
  a few decaying spot showers across the interior tonight.

* Hot and muggy on Wed. Will have late day thunderstorms. Isolated
  severe risk possible with the main threats of damaging wind gusts
  and heavy downpours, which could lead to localized flooding.

Pattern becomes quasi-zonal during this timeframe. The MCs/shortwave
over the eastern great Lakes will lift through New England tonight.
A more substantial trough (and our next weather maker) will dig from
the Northern Plains tonight into the western/central Great Lakes by
mid Wed. The trough lifts into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wed.
A warm front lifts into an through much of southern New England
tonight. The trailing cold front slides in later on Wed.

Next shot for potentially impactful weather comes later on Wed where
we could have some isolated strong to severe storms. This is the
main focus of the short term. Though will note that did put in
slight chances of a few spotty showers tonight across the interior
as the warm front is moving through. For most should be dry tonight,
but with mid/high clouds overhead.

Since previous update it appears that guidance continues the trend
of bringing the cold front in slower. This generally keeps our
weather dry for much of the day, but there is an increasing risk for
showers/storms during the afternoon/evening. Will see instability
values increasing to roughly a few hundred to 1500 J/kg across.
Appears at this point that would be maximized across CT and portions
of the interior. Will see deep shear in the 0-6 km layer increase to
30-40+ kts, which is more than sufficient for organized thunderstorm
development. Some uncertainty on timing a potential EML as some
pieces of guidance showing 6-8 degree mid level lapse rates overhead
during the afternoon, while low level lapse rates are roughly 7-9
degrees. The big questions at this point are we are somewhat removed
from the stronger upper forcing, mid level moisture may be lacking a
bit and there could be a bit of a cap to break per Bufkit soundings.
Though some pieces of guidance do bring in 1.5+ inch PWATs into the
afternoon/early evening, but most showing more impacts for our area
Wed Night. With this all said and taking into the account the ML
guidance. There are signals for strong to perhaps damaging wind
gusts along with heavy downpours, which if they fall over the wrong
spots could produce localized flooding. Think at this point the
latest SPC Marginal Risk for Severe Weather in Day 2 and WPC
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rain is fine. The HREF does show some
low probs with 3 hrly PMM of 3 hr QPF greater than 3 inches late on
Wed across portions of western MA/CT. This is also the area where ML
guidance (CSU ML and NCAR HRRR Neural Network) indicating greatest
risk for stronger storms in our area. Stay tuned for future updates
on this risk.

Given the increasing S to SWly flow ahead of the cold front
will see oppressive dew points spreading in as we get well into
the 60s for much of the region. Will also be quite warm with
temps ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Should see those
warmest readings across the CT/Merrimack Valley. Though it will
be muggy, we fall well short of Heat Advisory criteria at this
time. Still will be a good idea to take typical summertime
precautions of staying hydrated and cool.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights:

* Couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during this portion of
  the forecast.

* Expecting temperatures to fluctuate between near normal and above
  normal.

* Becoming less humid late this week into Saturday, before briefly
  becoming very humid Sunday. Trending less humid early next week.

Looking like our region will be contending with leftover convection
Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest guidance communicated a mixed
message. While there are some ingredients to support stronger
thunderstorms, they may not all be in place at the proper time. For
example, the peak mid level lapse rates and shear may not quite line
up with the peak instability. Will need to monitor the details and
adjust over the next day or so. Current thinking is the most likely
outcome will be diminishing/weakening convection across most of
southern New England as it moves east Wednesday night. The steeper
than moist-adiabatic mid level lapse rates may sustain a few
stronger thunderstorms past sunset.

The cold front helping to trigger these showers and thunderstorms
should still be somewhere across southern New England Thursday
morning, thus still a lingering risk for some showers. These would
be most likely across RI and eastern MA. Once this front finally
moves offshore, we should be looking at less humid conditions
arriving for Friday.

Drier conditions should last until another cold front approaches
from the west sometime Sunday. Still too early to pin down the
details. In general terms though, thinking our region gets into a
brief period of very warm and humid conditions, but not like the
heat we had last week. It should certainly not last nearly as long.
Expecting cooler and less humid air to arrive early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...High confidence.

Generally anticipating VFR conditions. Though may take until
08-09Z for the Cape/Islands to see improvement at MVFR/IFR
conditions linger as light showers move through. Could perhaps
see some patchy fog at prone BED given recent precip and light
winds until 11Z. Have handled with tempo given not super
confident on the winds completely decoupling. Winds out of the
NW at 5-10 kts.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with mid/high clouds beginning to move
in late afternoon/evening. Winds shifting from the NW to the
W/WSW by the afternoon. Should have speeds of 5-10 kts with
gusts of 15-20 kts.

Tuesday Night...High confidence.

VFR with mid to high clouds continuing to increase. Winds out of
the SW at 5-15 kts. Could see some 15-25 kt gusts after 06Z with
the highest speeds along the immediate south coast.

Wednesday...High confidence in AM. Lowers to moderate for PM.

VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the day. Confidence
lowers to moderate during the afternoon/evening as a cold front
triggers showers and thunderstorms. Not certain at this point on
coverage and exact timing, but risk seems highest across CT into
interior MA. If individual storm moves over terminal could see
brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Not out of the question there are
strong to damaging wind gusts if a stronger storm or two can
develop. Winds out of the WSW/SW at 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-30 kts.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

VFR through the forecast. Winds remain too strong out of the
NW to WSW today, which will keep the seabreeze at bay. Could
have some 15-20 kt gusts through the afternoon before the
boundary layer decouples roughly 23-01Z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR through the forecast. Could see gusty winds developing
around 15-17Z today as the boundary layer deepens.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters
through Wed evening. Though seas/winds will fall below SCA
conditions late today into this evening, they will redevelop
tonight into Wed with a strong SWly low level jet sliding in.

Hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the southern waters
and Cape Cod Bay due to the strong SWly low level jet previously
mentioned moving in late tonight into Wed.

Today...High confidence.

Winds shifting from the NW to the W/WSW as the day progresses.
Winds will be increasing this afternoon into the evening to
10-15 kts with some 20-25 kt gusts. Seas diminishing to 2-4 ft.

Tonight...High confidence.

Increasing SW to SSW winds with gusts of 20-30 kts. Seas
building 3-6 ft across the southern and eastern outer waters.


Wednesday...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the SW/SSW at 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30
kts. Seas 4-6 ft across the southern waters and eastern outer
waters. Scattered thunderstorms could spread into the waters
late in the afternoon/evening.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely,
isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ231>237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL
NEAR TERM...BL
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BL
MARINE...Belk/BL