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FXUS61 KBOX 022022
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
422 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate over New England through at
least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with
an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions and risk for showers
linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and
drier weather returns next Sunday and Monday behind the cold
front with slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

*  Warm and Sunny this afternoon gives way to chilly and foggy
   overnight period.

Lingering high pressure over New England brings mostly sunny
conditions during the day with mainly calm winds. Afternoon high
temps in the mid to upper 70s give way to the low to mid 50s
overnight as radiational cooling sets in. Expecting patchy fog
to develop late tonight, especially across the South Coast,
northern CT, and the CT River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Foggy for the early morning hours then sunny and warm for the
  afternoon.

Wednesday looks to be much like today as the high pressure
continues to be the most notable feature. Early morning patchy
fog eventually lifts out mid-morning, and expecting full sun for
the remainder of the day. Afternoon high temps similar to
today... mid to upper 70s, possibly 80 in the CT River Valley.
Light winds with sea breezes developing in the afternoon. Also
expecting another night of radiational cooling and possible fog
development Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overnight
lows expected in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...


Key Messages...

* Dry and seasonable Thursday.

* Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday with chance for
  embedded thunderstorms mainly on Saturday.

* A cold front Saturday night will usher in a drier and cooler
  airmass to start next week.

A large trough over much of the eastern U.S. will be the primary
driver of the weather through the weekend before some drier air and
weak mid level ridging returns late weekend into next week. After a
quiet and seasonable Thursday under the influence of high pressure
centered just to the east we`ll see an increasingly warm and moist
airmass advected north ahead of our next shortwave. The broader
trough will see a series of disturbances moving through, serving as
lift that will act on a moist airmass (PWATs >1.5" by Fri) to bring
scattered rain showers. Difficult to time exact periods of rainfall
but generally anytime between Thursday night and Saturday night
looks to feature a chance for rain; perhaps best chances being Thu
night into early Fri and Saturday afternoon/evening. As for
thunderstorms, instability looks quite marginal Friday with no
source of lift to speak of either so thunder is not a given (SREF
paints a small area of 5% t-storm chance in SNE) but possible;
however severe weather is unlikely. Saturday brings the better
chance of some severe storms as instability increases and lift
arrives in the form of a cold front. Details will ride on exact
timing and stregth of this front, how unstable we can get ahead of
it, etc.

Beyond the front a much drier and cooler airmass is ushered into the
region under rising mid level heights. After WAA leads to highs in
the mid 80s by Saturday, they drop back into the low to mid 70s
behind the front Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight... High Confidence.

VFR. Calm wind. Patchy radiational fog developing, could impact
terminals with brief IFR conditions in protected areas, i.e. KBED,
KBAF, and KBDL.

Wednesday... High Confidence.

VFR. Southeast wind up to 10 knots for eastern MA terminals. South
to south/southwest wind elsewhere 5-8 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. But, a low risk of late night patchy fog after 08z.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy FG.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Widespread FG, chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Widespread
FG, slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Widespread FG, slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Widespread FG, slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Widespread FG, chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Widespread FG, slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday... High Confidence.

Area of high pressure remains in control and provides tranquil
boating conditions. Easterly winds today are generally 10-15 knots,
then becoming light to calm overnight. Wind shifts more to the
southeast Wednesday, wind speeds 5-10 knots. Gusts both days are
less than 20 knots and seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or
less.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy
fog.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...McMinn