286
FXUS61 KBOX 071738
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
138 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather continues into the first half of the week.

- Warmer, breezy and more humid weather briefly returns
  Wednesday into Thursday, with a cold front bringing a risk
  for light rain showers Thursday, clearing offshore by Thursday
  early evening.

- Full sun, seasonable temperatures and onshore breezes Friday
  into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiet weather continues into the first half of
the week.

The tranquil Labor Day weather will continue into Tuesday under the
influence of building high pressure at the surface and in the mid
levels. As the sprawling 500 mb ridge shifts east from the Ohio
Valley height rises will contribute to continued dry weather and a
warming airmass. 850 mb temps increase a few degrees to ~11C under
dry NW flow. This will result in high temperatures just a few
degrees north of average, in the upper 70s (higher elevations and
along the coasts) to the low 80s). Dewpoints will be higher than
Monday, but still comfortable in the mid to upper 50s. Under high
pressure winds will be light with sea breezes along the
coastline.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer, breezy and more humid weather briefly
returns Wednesday into Thursday, with a cold front bringing a
risk for light rain showers Thursday, clearing offshore by
Thursday early evening.

We begin to turn warmer and also a bit more humid than recently by
Wednesday, ahead of a cold front which will very slowly progress
southward into Southern New England by early Thursday morning. SW
winds will also pick up by Wednesday afternoon but especially
Wednesday night into early Thursday, particularly for the south
coast, Cape and Islands. 950 mb SW jet upwards of 50 kt is depicted
on the GFS along the south coast Wednesday night into Thursday.
Gusts Wednesday night along the south coast, Cape and Islands could
reach up to 40 mph if we can mix, but thinking gusts clock in a
little less since profiles are warming aloft. On the waters
potential exists for gale headlines along the southern waters, but
gusts over land don`t seem worthy of headlines.

Even though PWATs rise to around 1.5-1.8", there isn`t an especially
strong signal for significant rain as the front pushes southward on
Thursday. Most of the ensembles and AI-based guidance seem
pessimistic on rain chances, perhaps due to westerly flow at sfc and
aloft, so left a 25-30% PoP mention for Thursday with the front
moving southward/offshore by Thursday afternoon.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday should be similar both days in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, but lows Wednesday night should be somewhat
sticky with lows in the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. More substantial cooling and drying takes place
Thursday night post-frontal, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Full sun, seasonable temperatures and onshore
breezes Friday into the weekend.

A sprawling 1024 mb high pressure cell ridges into New England on
Friday with moderately strong cool and dry advection and onshore NE
winds taking hold through Saturday night. Expecting full sun, low
humidity levels and dry weather Friday through Saturday night.
Airmass starts to modify/warm up some into Sunday; increasing cloud
cover by late Sunday/Sunday night ahead of a weak cool frontal
boundary, but at least the daytime hours should end up largely dry.

Highs Fri and Sat into the mid to upper 70s with low humidity
levels, except low 70s near the eastern coastlines. By Sunday highs
should top out in the mid 70s to low 80s despite increasing
cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon and Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds diminish
this evening between 22-00z and become more WNW overnight.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds around 5-10 kt. Chance for localized seabreezes
towards the late afternoon hours around 20-21z. Will continue
to monitor.

Tuesday night...High confidence.

VFR. Winds calm.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Friday through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday night: High confidence.

Seas will continue to decrease to less than 3 ft through at
least Tuesday night. W/SW winds 8-12kts today become W/NW
tonight.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-
     014-015-019-022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/BW
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW