516
FXUS61 KBOX 011120
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
720 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds are expected today, although not as strong Fri/Fri
night. It will be dry today with partly cloudy skies and
slightly below normal temperatures. Winds continue to decrease
this afternoon and tonight. Light winds Sunday continued
slightly below normal highs. Slightly warmer temperatures for
Monday. A few weak, quick moving systems move through the region
Monday night-Tuesday and late Wednesday-Thursday bringing a
chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages

* Gusty winds gradually trend downward through the day today.

Details...

Still plenty gusty out there early this morning with surface
observations showing gusts 30-40 mph across the higher terrain
and occasional gusts 40-50 mph for the Cape/Islands.
Mesoanalysis still shows a fairly strong pressure gradient
across the region early this AM; however, it has weakened some
from earlier meaning the peak gust period is behind us now. The
pressure gradient will continue to gradually relax as a low
pressure pushes further away today. In response, winds will
trend slowly downward generally from west to east. It will still
be "gusty" today with gusts 25-35 mph and up to 40 mph for the
Cape/Islands this afternoon.

Surface high pressure across the region will support dry
conditions today. With a cooler airmass aloft, temperatures will
lean a little below normal with highs in the mid 50s for most
areas and upper 40s for the higher terrain. Satellite early this
AM shows orographically enhanced clouds over the Berkshires and
Worcester Hills. This may persist across those areas today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Winds continue to decrease tonight.

* Lighter winds Sunday with slightly below normal temperatures.

Tonight and Sunday:

Winds continue to trend downward this evening and tonight as
high pressure settles across the region and the pressure
gradient weakens. Lighter winds, cool airmass overhead, and
little cloud cover will support better radiational cooling
tonight. Temperatures drop into the upper 20s for the higher
terrain and 30s elsewhere.

High pressure remains in place on Sunday with light NW winds. A
cool (below normal) airmass aloft will support another cooler
day with highs in the upper 40s for the high elevations and low
to mid 50s for the rest of southern New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Near normal temperatures for next week.

* Passage of a few weak systems late Mon-Tue & late Wed-Thu
  bringing chance for showers.


High pressure shifts offshore on Monday ahead of an incoming
mid-level trough. Most of Monday should stay dry with temperatures
slightly warmer than the weekend in the mid 50s to near 60. A
shortwave trough and weak offshore system will bring our next
chance for showers later Monday into early Tuesday accompanied
by a cold front. Gusty NW winds are expected on Tuesday with a
LLJ jet overhead and sufficient CAA.

Weak high pressure expected for Wednesday, before another system
approaches our region Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather should prevail much of Wednesday, with an increasing
risk for showers into Thursday morning and during the day.
Temperatures Tue/Wed should stay around normal for this time of
year in the 50s. A cooler airmass moves in behind a cold front
Thursday support slightly below normal temperatures. Breezy NW
winds will also likely accompany the post-frontal regime.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

No major changes.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR. Few batches of SCT-BKN decks 3500-5000 ft develop toward
the afternoon. Gusty W/WNW winds of 25 to 35 knots and up to 40
knots across parts of the Cape and Islands. Winds slowly trend
downward late afternoon.

Saturday Night...High confidence.

VFR. Winds continue to trend downward, especially after 00z.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. W/WNW winds around 10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday:

Winds and seas will slowly trend downward today. Gusts 30-45
kts this morning for the outer waters, decreasing to less than
25 kts tonight. Seas follow same trend with seas 10-12 ft
falling to less than 5 ft by Sunday morning for the outer
waters. This trend will allow the Storm Warnings downgrading to
Gale Warnings early this morning. There is potential for winds
to drop off quicker late this morning into early afternoon which
may allow the Gale Warning to drop off earlier than 18z. Inner
waters follow the same trend, just quicker with SCA conditions
for those zones after 15z.

Winds less than 25 kts Sunday. Seas less than 5 ft.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain
likely.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-
     236.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ231-233>235-
     237.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ232-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Mensch