833
FXUS61 KBOX 031917
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
317 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures and
tolerable levels of humidity is anticipated for most of the upcoming
workweek, to go along with coastal seabreezes. Our next chance for
rain may not materialize until next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Hazy skies through the afternoon

* Temperatures tonight similar to last night with clear skies again

Hazy skies due to Canadian wildfire smoke will continue over much of
southern New England for the rest of the day today, along with
mostly clear skies. Some areas have seen slight visibility
reductions due to this smoke, but these are not expected to get
worse. Other than that, not much change from our previous forecasts
for tonight. Sea breezes will continue until around sunset tonight.
Lows tonight expected to be in the mid to upper 50s for the region,
with urban areas and spots on the outer Cape in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Haze from Canadian wildfire smoke

* Dry with continued seasonable temperatures and slightly cooler
  temperatures on the immediate coasts from local sea breezes

Continued dry conditions as high pressure over the region continues
to dominate the pattern. Seasonable high temperatures with sea
breezes cooling the coasts will be the norm through this period (and
past it). Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to move into
southern New England, which may have some concentrations near the
ground.

Seasonable overnight conditions expected again Monday night. Some
guidance indicates slightly higher relative humidity values aloft
overnight, which lines up with expected increasing cloud cover
heading into Tuesday morning. No rain expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Other than low (<20%) chances at showers or t-storms Tue-Thu
  in/around the Berkshires, an extended stretch of dry weather with
  seasonable temperatures remains in the offing for the first week
  of August.

* Highs mid 80s with lows mid 50s to low 60s, to go along with
  cooler seabreezes each day.

* Uncertainty increases for late in the weekend / early next week
  due to possible subtropical development off the Carolina coast.

Details:

Overall no substantial changes noted in today`s guidance versus
yesterday`s in terms of the forecast for much of the upcoming
workweek into the early weekend. We still anticipate an extended
stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures and low humidity
levels for most of the upcoming workweek, driven by established high
pressure near Nova Scotia vicinity. We did opt to add a slight-
chance mention of diurnally-driven showers/t-storms in the terrain
areas in western/northwest MA Tue thru Thu, but won`t be raining the
whole time in these locations. Other than that though, it`s a dry
forecast through at least Sat with highs in the mid 80s and lows mid
50s to lower to mid 60s. Dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s to boot
too, so humidity levels should be tolerable.

Uncertainty then increases into Sunday and early next week, as the
ridge in place weakens. Further southward off the Carolina coast,
the NHC is monitoring a couple areas of disturbed weather. One area
designated on NHC`s Tropical Weather Outlook as having a strong
likelihood of development (up to 70%) is expected to pass well to
our southeast later this week, as it will be suppressed by the
strong Nova Scotia high pressure. Another area of disturbed weather
with lower chance at development (up to 20%) is north of the Bahamas
and southeast of the Carolina coast. This feature is forecast to
drift northwestward towards the Carolina coast and then may recurve
NE late in the weekend or early next week. There are some GFS and
GEM-based model solutions which bring this system close enough to
our southeast in which some effects could be possible, but without a
well-defined circulation center, tough to have much confidence in
any potential outcome at this time. We`ll continue to monitor this
area closely through the workweek but as of now, it`s way too early
to pinpoint impacts, if there were to be any at all. For the latest
on the tropics, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks issued
by the NHC. If nothing else, it serves as a reminder that we are in
the midst of tropical cyclone season.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Light and variable winds for many terminals, with some more
consistently S/SW or light N/NE. Local sea breezes continuing
until around 00z tonight, then light winds shift more
consistently S/SW across all terminals. Hazy skies from Canadian
wildfires, but not expected to impact surface visibility.

Some visibility reductions from radiational fog are possible
overnight in SE MA and parts of the south coast into eastern
CT.

Monday...High confidence.

VFR. Light N to NW winds Monday morning, before sea breezes
develop once again. Haze from wildfire smoke, potentially close
to the surface. Minor visibility impacts possible.

Monday Night...High confidence.

VFR. S winds shift more N overnight but remain light. Increased
cloud cover heading into the morning hours, but ceilings should
remain firmly VFR.

KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday Night...High confidence.

High pressure continues to build over the waters through Monday.
A period of relatively light winds and seas with good
visibility continues.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin