744
FXUS61 KBOX 100716
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
216 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Winter Weather Advisories issued for Essex, Middlesex, and
Suffolk Counties for 3-4 inches snow possible tonight. Winter
Weather Advisory issued for Hartford and western Hampden County
for a glaze of ice possible tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of accumulating
  light snow starting late this afternoon through late tonight.

- Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light snow and
  minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable
  norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential
  coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track
  uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A fast-moving clipper will bring a period of
accumulating light snow starting late this afternoon through
late tonight.

A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move into New England
Tuesday night with the surface low tracking well to our north. A SW-
NE LLJ accompanies the system helping advect in a plume of above
normal moisture(150-200% of normal). Broad ascent ahead of the warm
front and advancing LLJ will support a period of snow later today
and tonight. Snow/flurries arrive late this afternoon to this
evening from west to east with the most consistent showers in MA,
especially north. Majority of model and ensemble guidance agrees on
a light accumulation event 0.5" to 3". There will be a few things at
play that could favor periods of moderate snowfall rates. Model
guidance has identified warm frontogenetical forcing somewhere in
east/northeast MA this evening. In addition, the advancing LLJ from
the southwest will bring stronger ascent as it pushes closer late
tonight. Model soundings show sufficient lift within the
dendritic growth zone this evening and tonight, showing a
favorable environment for more enhanced snow rates. As a result,
bands with moderate snow rates are possible with the highest
chances for MA with the most consistent banding positioned over
northeast MA. For timing, this evening through late tonight is
the more likely timeframe to see periods of moderate snow before
dry air works in aloft. Precipitation exits the region early
Wednesday morning.

HREF probabilities reflect this with 50-70% probabilities across
Essex County for 3" snow or greater, but lower probs for greater
than 4". Additional counties show potential for closer to 3" inches
in surrounding counties such as Middlesex County. All this means is
these favored areas for enhanced snowfall, we could see locally up
to 4 or 5, mainly in northeast MA. Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued in those areas.

Have kept an eye on the secondary low development offshore of the
Cape. Its associated inverted trough is more likely favored to
impact areas further north (Maine) based on the low position/track.
This lowers the risk for another mesoscale forcer to bring enhanced
snowfall in our region.

With a warm nose pushing in from the south, a wintry mix or change
to rain is possible late tonight/early Wed AM, especially along the
immediate south coast and Cape/Islands. Model soundings indicate
potential for a change over to freezing rain in Hartford County and
in the Berkshires late tonight. This would likely be a brief period,
but potentially enough to bring a glaze of ice. As a result we
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas for the light glaze
of ice possible. Towards the end of the event (after midnight), the
upper/mid-levels dry fairly quickly leaving it saturated at the
lower levels. Patchy freezing drizzle may be possible for the full
column dries out Wednesday morning. Model soundings have been
borderline with showing this potential lowering confidence/coverage
of the drizzle. Snow amounts will be limited as a result further
south (less than 2").

KEY MESSAGE 2...- Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance
light snow and minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near
seasonable norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a
potential coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due
track uncertainty.

Wednesday through Saturday feature generally benign weather. A
surface low exits east of the coastal waters on Wednesday as high
pressure builds across the Midwest. While the pressure gradient is
modest, it will support northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph Wednesday
afternoon. High temperatures remain seasonable in the mid to upper
30s, though wind chills will fall into the 20s. As the surface low
departs Wednesday night, a subtle inverted trough extending westward
may produce a few snow showers, mainly across Cape Ann and areas
southward to outer Cape Cod into early Thursday morning. Moisture is
limited and forcing is not well aligned with the dendritic growth
zone, limiting snowfall to a light coating at most.

Otherwise, surface high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS
through the end of the week, maintaining seasonable temperatures. An
upper-level low and northern-stream shortwave cross New England
Friday night into early Saturday, bringing a low (<30%) probability
of snow showers. This remains a moisture-starved system with PWATs
below climatological normals, though minor accumulations are
possible across the higher terrain of northern and western
Massachusetts.

Looking ahead, guidance continues to signal the potential for a
coastal late this weekend into early next week. Predictability
remains low at this range. Most 00z deterministic guidance (GFS,
ECMWF, CMC, and AI guidance) favors a track well offshore and no
impacts to southern New England. The UKMET remains an outlier with a
closer solution near the benchmark. At this time, confidence in any
impacts remains low, though the system bears monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Through 12Z...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Mid-level cloud decks in central and
western southern New England.

Today...Moderate confidence.

VFR and dry to start. VFR cloud bases as light snow moves in
during the afternoon from west to east (19-21Z arrival in
western MA and 23-00Z arrival at BOS). Ceilings drop to MVFR
around or after 00Z. Light NW winds in the morning trend toward
the SW after 15Z.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

IFR/LIFR in snow, moderate at times possible especially across
northern MA, including KBOS. Steadiest snow roughly 00z-05z.
Snow may end as rain along the south coast. Can`t rule out
patchy -FZDZ after the bulk of precipitation has ended; however,
this is low confidence.

Wednesday...High confidence in trends.

Improving ceilings through the morning. NW winds gusts up 20-25
kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence.
-SN arrives more likely between 23-00Z. Ceilings should trend downward
 as steadier snow develops after 00Z. Period of moderate snow
 tonight between 00-06Z. This would bring briefly lower
 visibilities (1/2SM) and IFR/LIFR ceilings. Snow moves out by
 09Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tuesday through Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Seas continue to subside this morning, with wave heights of 2-4 ft.
Southwest  winds remain 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20-22
kt. A surface low moves across northern into central New England
tonight, then emerges offshore of southern New England Wednesday
morning. In the wake of this system, southwest winds increase and
veer to the west-northwest at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt on
Wednesday. Seas build to 4-7 ft on the southern outer waters and 3-6
ft on the eastern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed mid-morning Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of
snow.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Freezing spray.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for CTZ002.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ005>007-009-014-015-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley