114
FXUS64 KBRO 311141 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

-Heat continues to be a concern especially through Monday with a
 Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat
 Risk.

-Rain chances increase for Monday and Tuesday.

-The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight northern
 portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a
 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Heat continues to be the main focus for the start of the forecast
period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south-
southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising
into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110
degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will
maintain a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of
4) Heat risk for the region through Monday. While heat indices
will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather
Statements will be needed. Tuesday temperatures cool slightly, but
will remain near to just above seasonal norms for the remainder
of forecast period.

As we head into Monday a cold front begins to push southward,
stalling just north of the CWA. This will bring increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday (50-70%).
WPC has a small portion of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal
risk (level 1 out of 4) on Monday. There is some uncertainty in
the rainfall forecast, especially across the northern Ranchlands.
If the front stalls farther north, rain chances will decrease.
With that said, latest forecast guidance has increased rain chances
across Deep South Texas slightly on Monday and more noticeably on
Tuesday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and will generally
remain around 15% or less for Wednesday and Thursday. There will
be a slight uptick in precip chances headed into next weekend as
we look at the potential of another approaching and passing cold
front at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the day with mostly clear skies. Cloud cover is
expected to increase early Monday morning ahead of a cold front
that will be approaching the region near the end of the forecast
period. However, skies will likely remain scattered through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate
southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. A frontal
boundary will stall north of the CWA increasing rain and
thunderstorms chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%) before pushing
through late tuesday. This activity could lead to locally
elevated winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  79  95  79 /  10  10  40  40
HARLINGEN               98  75  97  75 /  10   0  50  50
MCALLEN                102  79 101  79 /   0  10  40  50
RIO GRANDE CITY        103  77 101  77 /   0   0  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      90  82  89  80 /   0  10  30  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  78  93  77 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...60-BE