Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
340 FXUS64 KBRO 220433 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1033 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period before a cold front moves through next week. - A medium chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Otherwise nearly daily low to medium (20-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. - Adverse marine conditions are possible Sunday into Monday due to moderate to breezy winds. - An elevated risk of rip currents will prevail through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The forecast remains on track. A cold front will continue to push east this weekend and stall either across the Brush country or north of the CWA into Sunday before lifting off to the northeast as a warm front. Rain chances will begin to increase late tonight and especially into Saturday with a 40-60% chance through the afternoon. Will continue to see low to medium chances of precip on Sunday (generally 20-50%) as the front moves northeast out of the region with dry conditions expected on Monday. A secondary cold front will push into western Texas Sunday into Monday which will bring breezy conditions, mainly along the coast. This front makes its way to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances returning Tuesday afternoon. The front will push off to the south Wendesday into Thursday with coastal troughing keeping lingering precip chances through Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. The secondary front will finally bring a touch of fall back to the region with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday through Friday. At area beaches an elevated risk of rip currents will prevail through next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight at BRO and HRL with ceilings lowering at MFE and MVFR conditions near morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Saturday morning. Confidence remains somewhat low on the timing for when any showers or thunderstorms could impact the airports. Any showers or thunderstorms that impact the aerodromes could produce MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A front passing to the north of the area will lead to an increased pressure gradient Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible Sunday night through Monday morning. Otherwise generally favorable conditions will prevail. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the period with locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 88 73 86 / 10 50 20 20 HARLINGEN 69 88 68 87 / 10 60 20 30 MCALLEN 73 90 72 90 / 10 50 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 88 70 90 / 20 40 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 82 / 20 50 30 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 10 50 20 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...68