860
FXUS64 KBRO 161144 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
644 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

* Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected
  to persist through the middle parts of next week.

* Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before
  Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend.

* Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to
  moderate seas through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature
continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions.
Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594
dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward
from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially
before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the
Southern U.S.

For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means
seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk
with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday
(highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat
indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the
Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island.

The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned
594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in
mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting
through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly
hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common
along and west of IH-69C.

As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through
the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge
stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of
normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions
could continue through late July/early August, given the time of
year we`re in and model trends.

Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as
the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This
could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk
through the period.

Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium
(40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north-
central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep
South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be
some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Some passing low stratus and light to moderate southeast winds
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will include
a TEMPO for HRL and MFE for brief periods of MVFR stratus.
Otherwise, winds will increase and become breezy later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease this
evening into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected
to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane
Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%)
chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may
increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution
(SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with
gusty afternoon winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  77  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               97  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 99  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  77  91  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...63-KC