844
FXUS64 KBRO 171130 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

500 mb low pressure, which helped generate showers/thunderstorms
over the BRO CWFA on Monday, has shifted farther southwest into
neighboring Mexico, resulting in mid-level high pressure that will
be more of an influence during the period. Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley will experience dry conditions today and
into the middle of the week. The increased presence of the high,
combined with generally limited cloud cover, will allow daytime
high and overnight low temperatures to rise to above normal levels
for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An active weather pattern is forecast for this period. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as deep
tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values near or in
excess of 2 inches, surges into Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley and persists. The latest drought map for the inland
portion of the BRO CWFA indicates a range of generally no drought
to Abnormally Dry conditions for a majority of the region. Thus,
initial rounds of convection may not require a Flood Watch.
However, if showers and thunderstorms become persistent and even
repetitive, then a Watch may be needed as the Long Term forecast
period progresses.

Temperature-wise, not surprisingly, the sustained opportunity for
convection, coupled with increased cloud cover, will result in
daytime highs running at slightly below normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.
Light winds around sunrise will become breezy afterwards and
persist through the remainder of the day. Diminishing winds will
occur around sunset. Clear to partly cloudy, rain-free skies are
also forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A slight intensification of the surface pressure gradient will
result in Small Craft Should Exercise Caution along the Lower
Texas Coast, especially due to winds.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower
Texas Coast through the period with a more modest pressure
gradient in place. Neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor
Small Craft Advisory are anticipated to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  80  94  80 /  10   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               97  78  96  78 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  80 /  10   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  92  78 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$