Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
903 FXUS64 KBRO 221120 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 520 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period before a cold front moves through next week. - A medium chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Otherwise nearly daily low to medium (20-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. - Adverse marine conditions are possible Sunday into Monday due to moderate to breezy winds. - An elevated risk of rip currents will prevail through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The forecast remains on track. A cold front will continue to push east this weekend and stall either across the Brush country or north of the CWA into Sunday before lifting off to the northeast as a warm front. Rain chances will begin to increase late tonight and especially into Saturday with a 40-60% chance through the afternoon. Will continue to see low to medium chances of precip on Sunday (generally 20-50%) as the front moves northeast out of the region with dry conditions expected on Monday. A secondary cold front will push into western Texas Sunday into Monday which will bring breezy conditions, mainly along the coast. This front makes its way to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances returning Tuesday afternoon. The front will push off to the south Wendesday into Thursday with coastal troughing keeping lingering precip chances through Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week. The secondary front will finally bring a touch of fall back to the region with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday through Friday. At area beaches an elevated risk of rip currents will prevail through next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Moisture and cloud cover working north into the RGV, with occasional MVFR to IFR ceilings at MFE early this morning. Generally expect occasional showers this morning into this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm or two. MVFR ceilings likely increase tonight across Deep South Texas. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A front passing to the north of the area will lead to an increased pressure gradient Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible Sunday night through Monday morning. Otherwise generally favorable conditions will prevail. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the period with locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 73 86 73 / 50 20 20 0 HARLINGEN 88 68 87 70 / 60 20 30 0 MCALLEN 90 72 90 73 / 50 20 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 70 90 70 / 40 30 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 82 76 / 50 30 30 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 85 71 / 50 20 30 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...56-Hallman