Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
683 FXUS64 KBRO 151125 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 525 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Ridging aloft and surface high pressure result in mainly dry conditions and record/near record breaking heat with daytime and overnight temperatures soaring 10-15 deg F above average through the middle of next week. - A tightened pressure gradient ahead of an advancing trough and low pressure system is likely to result in breezy conditions Tuesday into Thursday with gusts of 25-30 mph each afternoon. - There is a low chance of rain on Thursday ahead of a weak cold front that could pass through, or stall near, the region and cool the air by a couple degrees though temperatures remain 5-10 deg F above average next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Subtropical ridging extending from eastern and southeastern Mexico into the Central and Northern Plains will continue to keep temperatures well above average with mostly dry conditions across Deep South Texas through this weekend and into next week. At the lower levels, a broad high pressure over the Gulf will maintain warm air advection from southeasterly/southerly winds, increasing a notch into the beginning of next week as an advancing low pressure system gradually lowers heights over the Sierra Madre to our west, resulting in gusts up to 25-30 mph each afternoon Tuesday into Thursday mainly east of I-69 E. This is likely to cause high temperatures to increase from mainly the mid-to-upper 80`s to near 90 deg F near the Rio Grande in the upper RGV today to nearly widespread low to mid 90`s Sunday through the middle of next week, which is generally 10-15 deg F above normal in addition to being record/near-record breaking heat. Even overnight low temperatures are anticipated to range 10-15 deg F above normal into the middle of next week as 60`s and 70`s are expected each morning. One exception to the pattern may be in the later part of next week, possibly in the Thursday and Friday timeframe, when a mid/upper level low and attendant shortwave trough deepens and digs from California into northern Mexico before lifting into Texas and the Central Plains on Thursday. Deterministic and blended long range guidance are inconsistent at this time, but there is some indication of an increased chance of rain ahead of a weak frontal boundary throughout Thursday, though currently a low (20-30%) chance. Regardless, the trough continues quickly off the northeast and the frontal boundary may pass through or stall near the region late Thursday night or Friday, possibly cooling the air by a couple degrees, though temperatures remain possibly 5-10 deg F above average in its wake with highs in the 80`s and low in the 50`s and 60`s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue today, with wind gusts briefly increasing this afternoon. Skies will likely remain scattered to broken at VFR levels through the afternoon, with some decrease in cloud cover this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Mainly moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas persist into Tuesday of next week. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely Wednesday into Thursday as a tightening pressure gradient enhances southeasterly winds to moderate to fresh by Wednesday, possibly near strong on Thursday, resulting in moderate (4-6 feet) seas. Additionally, probabilities of rain increase from a low (20-30%) chance on Wednesday to a low to medium (30-50%) chance on Thursday into Friday as a trough passes to the west and north. Conditions gradually improve throughout the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 87 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 89 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 64 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 82 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 67 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...60-BE