696
FXUS64 KBRO 021200
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
600 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

* A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6PM Tuesday
  evening due to elevated winds and wave heights.

* The ongoing adverse to hazardous marine and beach conditions
  are expected to continue through at least Tuesday.

* Temperatures will remain cool through Tuesday then gradually
  warmer by mid-week before another cold front arrives Thursday into
  Friday. This will increase rain chances later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the forecast
period. The coastal trough/low will move farther eastward tonight
into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds across central Texas.
Cloudy and cool tonight with lows falling into the 40s, except for
the 50s near the coast. Light north to northwest winds late this
evening are expected to increase overnight, especially near the
coast, as the pressure gradient strenghtens. Highs on Tuesday will
struggle to make it out of the 50s/lower 60s at many locations.
Skies may begin to clear from west to east by the afternoon but
lingering clouds should continue near the coast. Another cool night
is expected Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40s across the
northern ranchlands to the mid 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
The NAM continues to handle this pattern well so far. Therefore,
will lean towards the NAM or a NAM/NBM blend through Wednesday.
Southeasterly winds look to briefly return Wednesday, before another
cold front arrives on Thursday. This will likely allow high
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon
before falling back to the low to mid 70s behind the front Thursday.

Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon and evening,
mainly over the Gulf waters. There is a medium (40 to 60 percent)
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with the approach and passage of the next cold front.
There is a low to medium (20 to 40 percent) chance of overrunning
rain/drizzle in the wake of the shallow cold front. High
temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s.
However, temperatures could trend colder with future model guidance,
especially as snowpack becomes more established over the northern
CONUS.

There is a High Risk of rip current through late Tuesday afternoon
due to elevated winds and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low cigs (IFR to MVFR) and moderate northerly winds this morning
across all sites. Gusty, briefly drizzly conditions along the
coast (BRO) will relax through the morning. By mid-morning, cigs
begin to lift prevailing MVFR. Clouds should continue to lift
through the day from west to east, allowing a window of VFR in the
afternoon (MFE)/evening (HRL, BRO). Tonight, light and variable
winds and cloudy skies return MVFR conditions along the coast
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM Tuesday evening
due to winds offshore and wave heights remaining elevated.
Conditions will briefly improve late Tuesday into Wednesday as the
pressure decreases. However, adverse to hazardous conditions are
expected to return Thursday into Friday with the approach and
passage of the next cold front. Small Craft Advisories will be
likely be needed later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             59  56  75  68 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               58  54  74  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 60  55  75  66 /  10   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         63  51  74  62 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      63  63  76  71 /  20  10  40  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  58  74  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...69-HK