Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
310 FXUS64 KBRO 180435 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1035 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1027 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 * Very warm, breezy, rain-free weather conditions are expected to persist through early next week. * Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place through this week. * South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take place nearly each day through early next week. * A nearby frontal boundary and a couple of mid-upper storm systems will result in low rain chances generally ranging between 15-30% across the region Thursday through early next week. * Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine and coastal conditions through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Very warm temperatures and mainly rain-free weather conditions will persist through the forecast period or through next Tuesday. Located on its northwestern flank, a strengthening 591-588 dam heat ridge will drive record to near record-breaking temps through this week with anomalies on the order of 10-15F degrees above average (see CLIMATE SECTION). An enhanced pressure gradient courtesy of a nearby weak shortwave trough over the Sierra Madre and a sfc high pressure system to our east coupled with a couple of mid-upper low pressure systems that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward will activate low level jet (LLJ) winds and increase kinematics or wind energy over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley through early next week. South-southeast winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will almost be a daily occurrence through next Tuesday. These winds will result in at times slightly adverse marine conditions with moderate wave heights and rip current risk through early next week (see MARINE SECTION). Midweek through early next week, an approaching or nearby frontal boundary associated with a couple of mid-upper level troughs that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward into the southern Plains could trigger a daily or near daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Jet dynamics and other forcings are more supportive further to the north across central and north Texas. That said, we continue to maintain a general low risk/probability (15- 30%) of showers and thunderstorms each day from Thursday to Monday night. On Thursday, the greatest probabilities will be located over the Northern Ranchlands. Afterwards, the best or highest chances for precipitation will be closer to the coast. Saturday presents a more widespread chance for showers and storms with probabilities ranging between 20-40%. Chances will be slightly higher during this time period over the Gulf Waters. Daytime high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s Tuesday through Friday across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley. Saturday through early next week, temperatures will be slightly cooler but still above normal levels as the mid-upper trough shifts eastward towards the region resulting in increased cloud coverage and rain chances. Daytime highs Saturday through Tuesday of next week will be in the 80s across Deep South Texas. Overnight lows through Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s. Monday night through Tuesday night, overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Through 00z Wednesday.....VFR conditions will by and large prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. MVFR ceilings are possible from time to time. Cloud coverage will range between SCT-BKN during the day and FEW-SCT at night. Southeast winds will remain elevated through much of the forecast period. Through this evening, southeast winds 10-15 kts will gusts between 15-22 kts. Tonight winds will weaken slightly with speeds around 10 kts. During the day on Tuesday, southeast winds will strengthen with speeds between 10-15 kts gusting as high as 25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy southerly winds through the forecast period. These winds will result in moderate rip current risk and seas with wave heights ranging between 3-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will at time be met during the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A record high of 93F degrees was set at McAllen today. This broke the previous record of 92F degrees set in 2024. A strengthening 588- 591 dam mid-level heat ridge will continue to drive record to near record-breaking temperatures through at least the middle parts of this week. Below are a list of records over the next few days for Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen. Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Record High Temperatures Brownsville: 92F in 2024 Harlingen: 91F in 2024 McAllen: 96F in 2024 Wednesday, November 19, 2025 Record High Temperatures Brownsville: 92F in 1964 Harlingen: 92F in 2011 McAllen: 94F in 1988 Thursday, November 20, 2025 Record High Temperatures Brownsville: 88F in 2013 & 1900 Harlingen: 93F in 1988 McAllen: 92F in 1994 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 90 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 77 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma