Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
829 FXUS64 KBRO 171750 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Unseasonably warm, rain-free, and breezy conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through mid-week. - There is a low (20 to 30 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will continue through at least mid week across Deep South Texas due to the influence of mid level ridging aloft. Temperatures are around 10 to 12 degrees above normal for mid November, with most areas likely observing high temperatures in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Expect breezy southeasterly winds each afternoon due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient, with occasional gusts up to 25 MPH. The pressure gradient will tighten by mid to late week in response to an approaching upper level system and attendant surface features. The attendant cold front will make its way across the state on Thursday. There is still uncertainty among deterministic and probabilistic guidance on the timing of the cold front across Deep South Texas, ranging from late Thursday into Thursday night or on Friday. Low precipitation chances (20-30%) ahead of the front will exist Thursday into Friday, and continue through the weekend as the frontal boundary lingers. Temperatures should be closer to normal this weekend, although still around 5 degrees above normal for mid November standards, with highs mostly in the 80s. Looking beyond the 7-day forecast period, the CPC Temperature and Precipitation 8-14 Day and Week 3-4 Outlooks indicate there are signals for a pattern change towards the end of November. Still fairly early to get into any details, but something to keep an eye on as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. There is a low potential for patchy fog and MVFR ceilings once again early tomorrow morning, but confidence is too low to warrant a mention with the 18Z TAF issuance. Expect breezy south to southeast winds this afternoon with gusts around 25 knots. Winds should fall below 10 knots overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will prevail each afternoon along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. The pressure gradient will strengthen ahead of an approaching upper level system and attendant cold front, which will likely bring Small Craft Advisory conditions by mid week and continuing through at least Thursday night. There should be improvement by the end of the week and into the weekend. Low (20-30%) rain chances return Thursday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 89 74 89 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 68 91 70 91 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 77 83 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 72 87 / 0 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....22-Garcia AVIATION...22-Garcia