Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
882 FXUS64 KBRO 152333 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 533 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Breezy, warm, and dry conditions persist across Deep South Texas into mid week. - There is a medium, 30 to 40 percent, chance of rain Thursday into Friday with the next frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The subtropical ridge across Texas gradually nudges back out over the Gulf by mid to late week, as the next low swings from Baja California into the Southern Plains. At the surface, moisture begins to increase on Wednesday, with a frontal boundary approaching Thursday into Friday. There is a very low, less than 10 percent, chance of rain through Wednesday, and a medium, 30-40 percent, chance Thursday into early Friday. Well above normal temperatures persist with record to near record highs Sunday through Thursday. Behind the front, temperatures only dip back towards normal or slightly above normal. As the pressure gradient strengthens mid-week, expect breezy southeasterly winds Wednesday and Thursday, especially each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Gusty southeast winds with some high clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through the evening hours and overnight. Winds will increase mid to late Sunday morning becoming moderate to gusty in the afternoon. There is a low (10-20%) chance of some fog late tonight/near daybreak as winds become very light, especially at MFE. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Southeasterly winds persist each afternoon into late next week, increasing due to a strong pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast Wednesday into Thursday. SCEC to SCA conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday. A front arrives Friday morning with a brief northerly wind shift. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Well above normal highs across the Rio Grande Valley are expected to approach, tie, or break daily high records Sunday through Thursday, especially at McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 69 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 68 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 82 75 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...63-KC