380
FXUS64 KBRO 011737
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

  - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
    to develop ahead of the cold front throughout the late evening
    and late night hours tonight, rising probabilities of rain to
    a medium to likely (40-60%) chance across the eastern half of
    Deep South Texas.

 - The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a Marginal
   (level 1 of 4) Risk, mainly along and east of US-281/I-69 C,
   and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Northeastern parts of
   Kenedy County, for the possibility of isolated severe
   thunderstorms along the leading edge of convection, capable of
   producing large hail and damaging wind.

 - A medium risk for rip currents is likely tonight into Monday
   due to the increase in wind, wave heights and wave periods
   following the front as well as from the building influence of
   astronomical tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The advance of a surface cold front during the evening and overnight
hours will result in rain chances in the range of low to medium (20%-
60%). SPC does have most of the near and east of US-281/I-69C in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for severe weather tonight. SPC has
recently upgraded parts of eastern Kenedy county into a Slight Risk
(2 of 4) for severe weather. While there still some uncertainty with
the area for the development of showers and thunderstorms overland.
The environmental setup with cold temperatures aloft and strong
northwesterly flow and deep-layer shear will provide some support
for the development of showers and thunderstorms. While the timing
for these showers and thunderstorms is still expected to be
primarily overnight, there is still a chance that the front and the
showers and thunderstorms associated with it could come sooner in
the evening. However, by tomorrow morning the rain chances are
expected to diminish.

After the front moves through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, the temperatures through Wednesday will be in the 80s with
each day the high temperatures furthering to increase. By Wednesday,
the 90s will return to the area, and further spread over the region
by the end of the forecast period.

Finally, while a low risk of rip currents is in present at the local
beaches today. Higher waves and swell is expected behind the front
that will increase the rip current risk to moderate through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

While VFR conditions are expected to occur for most of the period.
However with a frontal boundary moving through the region during
the overnight hours, there will be a low to medium chance (20-60%)
of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours. The
greatest chances will occur for HRL and BRO sites, but that does
not rule out MFE. Some heavy rainfall is possible that could
reduce visibilities to IFR conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A frontal boundary is likely to bring unsettled weather the to the
Lower Texas Coast, that could see some strong to severe
thunderstorms develop over the waters. Some of these storms could
produce large hail. These showers and thunderstorms could also
produce locally elevated winds and seas. Behind the front, Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to set in over the waters
with these conditions expected to persist through tomorrow
afternoon. After which, adverse conditions are expected to
diminish and by Sunday night, should start to trend to become more
favorable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             66  79  58  81 /  70  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               60  80  52  82 /  70  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 62  82  55  85 /  40   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         58  82  51  84 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      71  77  69  77 /  80  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     65  78  59  80 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz