475
FXUS64 KBRO 081724
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the lower Texas
  coastal beaches into next week.

* Medium to high rain chances continue through Thursday and
  diminish through Friday with locally heavy rainfall.

* Small craft should exercise caution across the bay and offshore
  Gulf waters into Friday, with gusty afternoon winds and
  building seas offshore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Abundant moisture has arrived across Deep South Texas with PWAT
values topping 2.3 inches this morning at BRO. Coverage has remain
scattered so far and activity has continued to move along at a
decent clip, limiting any localized flooding, but rainfall rates
have been robust. CAMs have backed down on development with the
sea breeze this afternoon, but have stuck with NBM POPs at this
time, with the radar still showing additional activity working
onshore. Rain chances in general work westward through the
afternoon, repeat tomorrow, and diminish into Friday. By this
weekend and into early next week, expect only isolated showers or
thunderstorms along the sea breeze and fairly seasonal conditions
into mid October.

Life-threatening rip currents will continue along the lower Texas
coast this weekend into early next week, with a long period swell
persisting. Astronomical tides remain elevated into Tuesday, which
could narrow beaches at high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood
Statement may be needed Thursday and Friday with a slightly higher
surf.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions in any heavy
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. An easterly breeze
arrives this afternoon, gusting to around 20 kts at BRO and HRL.
Another round of showers returns late tonight off the Gulf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The pressure gradient strengthens through the remainder of the
week, with breezy easterly winds and building seas creating SCEC
conditions across the bay and offshore waters today and tomorrow.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms gradually diminishes into
Friday. Any shower or thunderstorm may contain locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  90  76  89 /  50  60  50  50
HARLINGEN               73  91  73  90 /  30  60  30  40
MCALLEN                 76  93  75  93 /  30  50  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         71  93  71  93 /  30  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  86  81  85 /  50  60  60  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  88  76  88 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman