256
FXUS64 KBRO 241754
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1154 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Above average high temperatures continue Tuesday.

 - A cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
   bringing a medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
   across the region.

 - More seasonable temperatures are forecast behind the front just
   in time for Thanksgiving, but won`t stick around through the
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A weak cold front over West Texas is forecast to stall along the
northwestern portion of the CWA tonight. This stationary boundary
will likely support light surface winds across the area Tuesday,
with few other impacts. High temperatures are still forecast to
climb back to the upper 80s to low 90s again Tuesday afternoon.

A stronger cold front is forecast push through Deep South Texas
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances are forecast to
increase to around 40-60% along the front, with the latest runs of
HiRes models depicting a cluster of thunderstorms developing
ahead of and along the front Tuesday night. CAPE values ahead of
the front could increase to around 2500 J/kg, however limited wind
shear and moderate lapse rates will likely limit the intensity of
these storms, likely keeping them sub-severe.

Behind the front, stronger winds and more seasonable temperatures
are forecast Wednesday. High temperatures look to range from the
low 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon, with low temperatures
Wednesday night in the 50s across most of the area. Some portions
of the northern counties could drop into the upper 40s Wednesday
night, and areas along the coast and the lower RGV could remain in
the low 60s.

The seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue for
Thanksgiving, with highs in the 70s to low 80s Thursday afternoon.
Generally light winds and near-zero chances are forecast through
the day Thursday.

Southeasterly winds are forecast to return Friday leading to
slightly warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. High
temperatures are expected to return to the mid-80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period.
Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon. Wind gusts
will begin to subside this evening, with winds becoming light and
variable Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and
Gulf waters until 3 PM this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution headlines will likely be needed after the Small Craft
Advisory ends, through tonight. Favorable conditions are forecast
to briefly return Tuesday, before winds and seas increase again
Wednesday. Rain chances will increase to around 60% Tuesday night
ahead of and along a cold front moving through the area. Behind
the front, stronger northerly winds and higher seas will likely
require additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines
or small craft advisories Wednesday. Winds and seas may briefly
subside for Thanksgiving, however stronger southeasterly winds
will likely result in adverse conditions over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             71  88  70  79 /   0  10  50  50
HARLINGEN               68  89  65  78 /   0  10  50  40
MCALLEN                 71  91  68  78 /   0  10  60  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  90  64  76 /   0  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  83  73  78 /  10  10  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     69  87  68  78 /   0  10  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE