Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
715 FXUS64 KBRO 111043 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 443 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 442 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 -Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s across portions of the ranchlands with mid to upper 40s in the RGV. -Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected Wednesday into Sunday, with well above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 A deep 500mb trough across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS gradually swings into New England into the weekend, allowing high pressure to build across Deep South Texas. Low pressure drops down the Pacific coast and rolls northeast into the Southern Plains by Sunday night. At the surface, southerly winds return Tuesday, and generally persist into Sunday as the pressure gradient strengthens into the weekend. This will gradually build moisture, calming fire weather concerns, but not bumping rain chances above 10 percent. The next cold front arrives Sunday, also likely dry, with very limited impacts or change into early next week. Expect a chilly night tonight, below normal temps Tuesday into early Wednesday, then well above normal highs and lows return to Deep South Texas through Sunday afternoon. Forecast highs for BRO and MFE may approach record highs Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures behind the next front drop from well above normal to just above normal into early next week. While dry air remains in place across the brush country, winds remain a little light for a Fire Danger Statement at this time on Tuesday. Will continue to monitor model trends into Tuesday morning. Life-threatening rip currents briefly return Wednesday and again over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Through 12z Wednesday.....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period. Light and variable to calm winds from overnight will develop out of the south-southeast today with speeds between 5-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Southeasterly winds return Tuesday with the pressure gradient strengthening into the weekend, increasing southerly winds and briefly bringing back SCEC to borderline SCA conditions Wednesday into Friday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Friday night into late Sunday with the next frontal passage on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 60 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 70 81 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 62 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...23-Evbuoma