Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
015 FXUS64 KBRO 202303 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 503 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - A low to medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday night through Saturday. Otherwise daily low (15-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. - Adverse marine and coastal conditions are possible through early next week due to moderate to breezy winds. - Noticeable changes in temperatures expected around Wednesday of next week after a cold front moves through the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A cold front is expected to approach the region leading into the weekend and then stall out to the north of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley sometime into late Friday into Saturday. This will allow for greater chances of rain to occur late Friday through Saturday. Currently medium chances (around 50 to 60%) are expected for Saturday in the Northern Ranchlands with the Lower and Mid- Valley having slighlty lower chances (around 40%) for Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, the chances for rain will become low (less than 30%) for the entire area as the previously stalled frontal boundary retreats. Moving into the early part of the work week, another frontal boundary is expected to move into the region that will actually push through bringing both a low chance (less than 30%) for rain and a noticeable change in the temperatures as the high temperatures for Wednesday are mostly in the 70s to low 80s. Ahead of the frontal boundary breezy conditions are possible as the pressure gradient tightens. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will remain moderate overnight. Breezy conditions are expected on Friday with gusts to 25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A mostly favorable conditions are expected for a large duration of the period. However, starting Friday night, there will be a low to medium chance (30-60%) of rain through the remainder of the period. In addition, a cold front is expected to move through the Lower Texas Coast during the early part of next week likely to result in a mixture of adverse to hazardous conditions, thus Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed for this time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 89 72 88 / 0 10 10 40 HARLINGEN 70 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 50 MCALLEN 73 93 72 91 / 0 10 10 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 93 70 91 / 10 0 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 76 82 / 0 10 10 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 70 86 / 0 10 10 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....64 AVIATION...68