190
FXUS64 KBRO 150520
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Life-threatening rip currents are expected this weekend into
   next week along the beaches of the lower Texas coast.

 - Temperatures warm above normal by Friday to record or near
   record warmth Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

A strong 500mb low along the West Coast swings into the Northern
Plains by late this week, nudging the ridge across Texas out into
the northern Gulf. This leaves weaker mid-level pressure across
Deep South Texas with limited moisture. POPs drop below 10 percent
Wednesday through Saturday. A surface low develops across the
Southern Plains over the weekend and drops into East Texas by
Sunday, dragging a cold front southward, likely stalling north of
Deep South Texas. POPs have trended further down, now just briefly
above 15 percent. The subtropical ridge returns into early next
week, maintaining dry and warm weather.

Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming to a couple of
degrees above normal Friday, and then adding a couple more degrees
on Saturday, bringing a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk back to
Deep South Texas and near triple digit heat across the brush
country and upper valley. The heat persists Sunday into Tuesday,
with potential record high temperatures across the RGV.

Life-threatening rip currents are expected to increase this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites.
Expect light easterly winds, generally below 5-10 knots to
continue through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The pressure gradient continues to weaken with generally light to
moderate onshore flow turning southeasterly into next weekend. A
weak cold front may work south toward the coastal waters with a
brief light to moderate northeasterly wind shift on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday
across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in
Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  78  84  78 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  71  87  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-Garcia