880
FXUS64 KBRO 020437
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1037 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

* A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6PM Tuesday
  evening due to elevated winds and wave heights.

* The ongoing adverse to hazardous marine and beach conditions
  are expected to continue through at least Tuesday.

* Temperatures will remain cool through Tuesday then gradually
  warmer by mid-week before another cold front arrives Thursday into
  Friday. This will increase rain chances later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the forecast
period. The coastal trough/low will move farther eastward tonight
into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds across central Texas.
Cloudy and cool tonight with lows falling into the 40s, except for
the 50s near the coast. Light north to northwest winds late this
evening are expected to increase overnight, especially near the
coast, as the pressure gradient strenghtens. Highs on Tuesday will
struggle to make it out of the 50s/lower 60s at many locations.
Skies may begin to clear from west to east by the afternoon but
lingering clouds should continue near the coast. Another cool night
is expected Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40s across the
northern ranchlands to the mid 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
The NAM continues to handle this pattern well so far. Therefore,
will lean towards the NAM or a NAM/NBM blend through Wednesday.
Southeasterly winds look to briefly return Wednesday, before another
cold front arrives on Thursday. This will likely allow high
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon
before falling back to the low to mid 70s behind the front Thursday.

Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon and evening,
mainly over the Gulf waters. There is a medium (40 to 60 percent)
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with the approach and passage of the next cold front.
There is a low to medium (20 to 40 percent) chance of overrunning
rain/drizzle in the wake of the shallow cold front. High
temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s.
However, temperatures could trend colder with future model guidance,
especially as snowpack becomes more established over the northern
CONUS.

There is a High Risk of rip current through late Tuesday afternoon
due to elevated winds and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR stratus and light northwest to north winds prevail across Deep
South Texas late this evening. Ceilings have recently fallen to IFR
in the past hour at BRO. Will include a TEMPO for brief IFR
ceilings. Otherwise, mainly MVFR ceilings and northwest to north
winds are expected to continue overnight. However, winds are
expected to increase and become moderate to gusty later tonight
into early Tuesday morning, especially near the coast. Low
ceilings should gradually improve to VFR by mid to late morning at
MFE and HRL. However, MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon
at BRO.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM Tuesday evening
due to winds offshore and wave heights remaining elevated.
Conditions will briefly improve late Tuesday into Wednesday as the
pressure decreases. However, adverse to hazardous conditions are
expected to return Thursday into Friday with the approach and
passage of the next cold front. Small Craft Advisories will be
likely be needed later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             56  51  59  56 /  20  20  20  10
HARLINGEN               53  48  58  54 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 56  50  60  55 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         56  50  63  51 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      60  56  63  63 /  30  30  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     56  52  59  58 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC