416
FXUS64 KBRO 282300
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
500 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

* Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected for Saturday.

* A strong cold front is expected to reach our area Saturday night
  into Sunday which will decrease temperatures to below seasonal
  normals and increase precipitation chances for our area through
  Monday.

* Dangerous surf and boating conditions are expected persist
  through at least Sunday and possibly longer in response to an
  enhanced pressure gradient and a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure is expected to remain over Deep South Texas
through tomorrow evening, resulting in unseasonably warm
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.  This
surface high will be pushed off to the east by an approaching
shortwave coming off the Colorado Rockies, which is expected to
usher in a pattern change and a strong cold front to our area
tomorrow night into Sunday morning.

This cold front is expected to bring much cooler temperatures to our
region, though model guidance is not currently agreeing as to how
much colder the temperatures will get.  The NAM (which tends to
handle stronger cold fronts more accurately in Deep South Texas) is
more robust than the Euro/GFS, proposing a temperature drop of
around 10 degrees colder than what the Euro/GFS is proposing.  For
this reason, a little more weight was given to the NAM in blending
it with NBM guidance for forecasting the temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday.

Present thinking is that low temperatures are expected to get down
into the upper 50s/lower 60s Sunday night as the cold front comes
through. Low temperatures will then drop into the upper 40s/lower
50s Monday night through Wednesday night before a warming trend
begins on Thursday. On Sunday, skies will be cloudy and temperatures
should stay in the upper 50s for the Northern Ranchlands and low to
mid 60s for the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures will be coolest
on Monday, getting into the upper 50s for most of Deep South Texas
and skies remaining cloudy. Gradual clearing should allow Tuesday`s
highs to warm into the 60s, and Wednesday`s highs will continue
warming into the 70s, with temperatures staying close to seasonal
levels in the 70s through the end of the workweek.

The frontal passage will also bring an increased chance of rain to
the area.  Chances should start increasing tomorrow night, with a
low to medium (20-40%) chance for areas east of I-69C.  This will
become more widespread on Sunday, with the low to medium (20-40%)
chance expanding west of I-69C, and chances increasing to moderate
to high (50-70%) for the eastern counties closer to the coast. The
best chance for rain in the Western counties will be Sunday night
into Monday, when PoPs increase to moderate (around 50%) for most of
Deep South Texas (with higher chances holding steady closer to the
coast).

Conditions will begin to dry out Monday, with low to moderate (20-
40%) precip chances continuing for areas east of I-69C. The driest
days next week will be Tuesday and Wednesday, before chances
increase again to low to moderate (20-40%) for all of Deep South
Texas on Thursday and low (around 20%) for coastal counties on
Friday. There could be some thunderstorms ahead of the front, but
precip is expected to transition to stratiform rain and drizzle
following the frontal passage.

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents is in effect for area
beaches tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Through 00z Sunday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the 00z TAF cycle. VCSH will be around through this evening into
tonight. Cloud coverage is expected to improve towards the end of
the 00z TAF period.

Winds will remain breezy out of the southeast with speeds between 10-
20 kts and gusts as high as 30 kts or so through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Marine conditions are expected to be hazardous to smaller vessels
over the next few days as a strong cold front passes through the
area.  A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the Bay and
Gulf waters through tomorrow evening. This may need to be extended
depending on the strength of the pressure gradient ahead of the
front, and the strength of the winds behind the front. If winds do
drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria at any point between now
and Tuesday, winds will still be high enough for Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions.

Conditions should start improving on Tuesday night and remain more
favorable with light to moderate winds and seas through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  83  71  72 /  10  10  30  70
HARLINGEN               66  84  66  67 /  10  10  30  60
MCALLEN                 69  86  65  67 /  10   0  20  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  86  63  64 /   0   0  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  80  73  74 /  10  10  40  80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     68  83  70  71 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma