896
FXUS64 KBRO 091145
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
545 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Sunday across the Northern
  Ranchlands due to the combination of very low humidity, dry
  fuels, and breezy winds. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect
  for the Rio Grande Valley and Coastal/Island Kenedy County.

- A Gale Warning is in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday
  night for the Gulf waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in
  effect for the Laguna Madre from Sunday morning through Monday
  afternoon.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect
  Sunday through at least Monday evening along the Lower Texas
  beaches. Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially
  near high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The primary concern for the forecast remains the cold front
forecast to move through Deep South Texas Sunday morning. This
front is expected to bring much drier conditions and gusty winds
Sunday and Monday, as well as cooler temperatures through mid
week. High temperatures may reach the low 80s Sunday morning ahead
of the front before falling into the mid 70s through the
afternoon. Overnight low temperatures Sunday night look to reach
the mid 40s over northern portions of the CWA and low 50s across
the Rio Grande Valley. Monday looks to be the coolest day this
week with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and
overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

With the frontal passage, strong winds along the Lower Texas
Coast will lead to hazardous beach conditions at area beaches
Sunday and Monday. High Surf and increased Rip Current strength
will be likely. Some minor coastal flooding could be possible
around high tide Sunday night, however guidance has been trending
downwards this evening.

Southeasterly winds are forecast to return Tuesday and allow for
gradually warmer conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Some mist/fog/low stratus have developed overnight and continues
to lead to a mix of MVFR/LIFR conditions across portions of Deep
South Texas early this morning. Fog/mist with MVFR/LIFR conditions
are expected to be short lived as a strong cold front will move
through the aerodromes in the next couple of hours. In the wake of
the front, gusty north winds 15-25 kts with gusts around 30 kts
will develop later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are
expected to decrease this evening but some gusty winds could
linger into tonight, especially at BRO.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A cold front moving through the coastal waters Sunday morning will
lead to deteriorating marine conditions along the Lower Texas
Coast. Sustained winds are forecast to approach Gale Force over
the coastal Gulf waters, with frequent Gale force gusts likely
Sunday. Seas are expected to build to around 10 feet Sunday
afternoon. Confidence is lower for Gale conditions across the
Laguna Madre, however winds will likely exceed Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday into Monday. Pressure gradients across
the Gulf waters are expected to weaken slightly Sunday night,
however a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through
Monday evening as seas gradually subside. Generally favorable
marine conditions are expected to return through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front moving through the area Sunday morning will
bring gusty northerly winds and a much drier air mass Sunday
afternoon into Monday. The primary fire weather concern still
looks to be Sunday afternoon across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks and
Inland Kenedy counties. Relative Humidity values look to range
from 15% out west to 25% across much of Kenedy county, while 20 ft
winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30. A Red Flag Warning will be in
effect for these counties Sunday afternoon.

Further south, lighter winds over Starr and Hidalgo counties, and
higher relative humidity values over Cameron and Willacy counties
will reduce the fire weather concern slightly, however conditions
will still warrant a Fire Danger Statement.

Relative humidity values look to be lower on Monday, ranging from
10-20% from Zapata to inland portions of the coastal counties.
Wind speeds, however, look to remain below 15 mph through the
afternoon, so Red Flag Warnings likely wont be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  58  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               81  50  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 82  52  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         81  49  72  42 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  63  69  61 /  20   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  57  69  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
     for TXZ248>251.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ451-
     454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC