305
FXUS64 KBRO 222325
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Upper level low pressure along the Texas coast will support weak
forcing and deep mid-level moisture through the weekend and into
early next week. PWAT values look to remain between 2 and 2.4
inches through the weekend, before slowly falling off early next
week. This pattern will support increasing rain chances over the
weekend, with increased spatial coverage possible Sunday and
Monday. The high PWAT values could support some locally heavy
rainfall and nuisance flooding.

By mid week, an upper-level ridge looks to shift east over Texas,
increasing subsidence across the region and limiting rain chances
later in the week. Some isolated sea breeze convection could still
continue through Thursday, with rain free conditions likely
returning Friday.

High temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s through the
forecast, with heat indices likely remaining below heat advisory
thresholds through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

At this hour, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to move over
KMFE, which will bring further updates to prevailing conditions as
ceilings and visibility are likely to become MVFR, potentially
IFR, as heavy rain, in addition to lightning and some gusty
winds, arrive. Otherwise, KHRL and KBRO continue to experience
VFR conditions and light easterly winds. Within a few hours, all
terminals are expected to become VFR along with light and
variable, or calm, winds. Winds pick up back to 5-10 knots,
gusting to around 17-22 knots, by the afternoon. PROB30`s have
been added for generally the 18-00 Z timeframe tomorrow as showers
and thunderstorms develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to continue
through the forecast. Light to moderate onshore winds and slight
seas are expected to continue the week. Rain chances are expected
to increase to around 60-70% this weekend and early next week.
Daily low rain chances will then continue through Thursday. Winds
and seas may be locally higher in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  94  79  91 /  30  60  70  80
HARLINGEN               75  94  74  92 /  30  60  60  80
MCALLEN                 79  97  78  94 /  40  70  70  80
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  96  75  93 /  40  70  70  80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  80  88 /  40  50  70  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  77  91 /  30  50  60  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...65-Irish