552
FXUS64 KBRO 171715
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A generally hot and rain-free period for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. Upper-level high pressure will continue to be the
biggest influence for the weather over the region allowing for more
subsidence to occur and thus limiting chances for rain. While a
stray shower or thunderstorm with the seabreeze cannot be ruled out
for the period, the chances for rain are very low (less than 10%).

Mostly sunny skies are expected for the period allowing for
temperatures to rise as well. The high temperatures are expected to
generally range from the mid 90s to the lower triple digits.
However, the heat indices at this time are expected to only range
from 105-108. While that is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. It
is still a good idea to practice heat safety and limit time outside
especially during peak heating hours. The heat risk for the period
is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4). The low temperatures for the
period are mostly in the 70s, with a few places on the extreme
southern portions of the CWA approaching 80.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low
pressure over the coast of Mississippi and currently has about 30%
chance of development. Regardless of development, this system is not
expected to have many impacts to the region. However, some increase
in swell and rip current risk is possible if any development does
occur. However the current forecast keeps swell and rip current risk
low along the Lower Texas coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Gusty southeasterly flow is also expected to
continue through the afternoon and into the early evening, before
they weaken. Winds could gust up to 20 knots. With the
southeasterly flow in place, some low-level clouds moving over the
region remain possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Generally favorable conditions are expected with light to moderate
southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas. High pressure over
the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through
the period. A slight increase in the southeasterly winds over the
Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf waters that result in Small Craft
Exercise Caution for short periods of time starting this weekend and
continuing through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  93  79  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  98  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  80  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  92  78  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz