Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
892 FXUS64 KBRO 201140 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 540 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Warm temperatures are expected through the forecast period with record to near record-breaking temperatures possible through this week. - A low to medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Otherwise daily low (15-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. - South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph are expected into next week. - Adverse marine and coastal conditions are possible through early next week due to moderate to breezy winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 An unsettled weather pattern returns on Thursday and will linger through the weekend as an upper level low brings a cold front into Texas slowly making its way towards the CWA early next week. Moisture pooling along with daytime instability will increase rain chances, mainly across the Ranchlands, on Friday (around a 20% chance). As the front pushes into southern and eastern Texas on Saturday, rain chances will increase to 30-50% then decrease Sunday and Monday (15-30%) as the front lingers across near the northern border of the CWA. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned front will lead to breezy conditions on Thursday and again in the later part of the weekend into early next week. The front will finally push through late Monday into Tuesday, though low rain chances will continue into next week, mainly along the coast. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with the potential for record breaking highs through the remainder of this week into the weekend. While the cold front early next week will cool things slightly, temperatures will remain above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Light southeast winds with a few passing low stratus clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. LIFR ceilings are currently impacting HRL and may continue through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. There will be a potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility early tomorrow morning. Light southeast winds early this morning will become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A locally enhanced pressure gradient will lead to slightly adverse conditions, mainly each afternoon, through the end of the week for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. The pressure gradient tightens further ahead of a cold front leading to breezy conditions Sunday ahead of the boundary with Small Craft Advisories likely needed late Sunday into Monday. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the waters late Monday into Tuesday with associated rain chances through much of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 74 89 74 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 90 70 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 91 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 69 93 71 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 84 76 / 10 0 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 72 88 71 / 10 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...63-KC