Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
455 FXUS64 KBRO 231131 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 531 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Above average and record-breaking, or near record-breaking, high temperatures continue through Tuesday. - There is a medium to likely (40-60%) chance of rain across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in association with the passage of a cold front. - Near average temperatures follow behind the front along with a low (15-20%) chance of rain along and east of I-69 E continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A lingering frontal boundary situated just north of our County Warning Area (CWA) is expected to generate a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain across the northern ranchlands and along the immediate coastline this morning. As southeasterly winds return throughout the day, this boundary is expected to lift northward and diminish probabilities of precipitation (POP`s) from south to north, resulting in dry conditions (<10% PoP`s) across all of Deep South Texas by this evening, continuing into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a mid- level trough is projected to translate northeastward from the Desert Southwest today into the Central Plains on Monday, extending another frontal boundary southward, possibly arriving to and stalling near the Rio Grande Plains Monday evening into Tuesday. Lift provided by this boundary and upper level divergence ahead of a weak trough over western Texas are currently expected to gradually increase chances of rain to a low (15-20%) chance across most of the CWA by Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, an amplifying shortwave trough moving eastward over the Northern Plains is likely to initiate a cold front, with moisture pooling ahead of it increasing chances of rain overnight Tuesday to a medium to likely (40-60%) chance by Wednesday morning as the front pushes through, bringing northeasterly to northerly winds. Following, PoP`s diminish throughout most of inland Deep South Texas by Wednesday night, though coastal troughing could maintain a low (15-20%) chance of rain along and east of I-69 E into next weekend, with southeasterly winds returning on Friday. Sustained onshore flow and/or warm air advection via southeasterly/southerly surface winds are expected to continue to result in very warm and humid conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees F above average during this time with record-breaking, or near record-breaking, highs in the 80`s to lower 90`s followed by overnight low temperatures in the 60`s and 70`s. The passage of the cold front and increased cloud cover on Wednesday, and beyond, will drop temperatures to near average on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a warming trend into next weekend as southeasterly winds return on Friday. A medium risk of rip currents continues through the day today. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Shallow field fog may diminish visibility at times through just after sunset. VFR conditions are generally expected, with brief MVFR to IFR visibility. Southeasterly winds gradually increase into the afternoon and remain breezy tonight into Monday with VFR ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Mostly moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas during the day today become moderate to fresh, possibly near strong, south-southeasterly winds tonight into Monday morning as a pressure gradient tightens, resulting in moderate seas of 4-6 feet as well likely Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines. A shorter-fused Small Craft Advisory may be possible as well. Conditions improve briefly throughout Monday night, leading to gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate (3-4 feet) seas. A cold front drops through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, likely bringing another round of SCEC headlines through Wednesday night, followed by mainly moderate winds and moderate seas into next weekend. Chances of rain decrease from a low to medium (20- 50%) chance today to less than 10% chance into Monday. Chances of rain gradually build Monday night to as much as a medium to likely (40-60%) chance Tuesday night before diminishing to a low to medium (15-40%) by Thursday and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 87 74 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 88 69 90 67 / 20 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 73 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 69 92 66 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 75 / 20 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 86 69 / 20 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...56-Hallman