381
FXUS64 KBRO 161701
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high
pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast. A low
across the northern Gulf is being monitored by the National
Hurricane Center with a 40 percent chance of tropical development
in the next 48 hours to 7 days. With this activity northeast of
the CWA, expect an increase in subsidence and slight bump to
rather seasonal temperatures into early next week, especially
across the brush country. A moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk is
expected through the period.

At this time, conditions along the beaches are expected to improve
into Thursday, with a low risk of rip currents through Friday. Any
tropical development across the northern Gulf may increase swell
or swell period and push an elevated threat of rip currents to
start the weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents returns
Saturday and persists into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
gusty southeasterly winds gradually diminishing this evening. At
this time, expect winds to remain just below any Airport Weather
Warning criteria, but an occasional gust to 34 kts is possible
into early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds and light to moderate seas are
expected to generally prevail through the forecast period. The
National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low across the northern
Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week into this
weekend. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible each
afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  93  77  94 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               75  96  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  87 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  91  77  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman